Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’
Important Takeaways:
- Dow drops 100 points after the Fed dashes hopes for a pivot to softer tightening stance
- Markets will likely continue to seesaw until it is clear inflation has cooled off and that the Fed has stopped marching rates higher, but traders split over where interest rates are headed. Any data that shows the U.S. economy isn’t slowing as the central bank tightens policy will likely weigh on stocks.
- “In our view, the risk-reward for markets over the next three to six months is unfavorable, and today’s Fed statement supports that view”
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Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’
Important Takeaways:
- Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits
- A year ago, a bag of potato chips at the grocery store cost an average of $5.05. These days, that bag costs $6.05. A dozen eggs that could have been picked up for $1.83 now average $2.90. A two-liter bottle of soda that cost $1.78 will now set you back $2.17.
- Over the last year, the price of food eaten at home has soared 13 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with some items spiking even higher. Cereals and bakery goods are up 16.2 percent from a year ago, closely followed by dairy, which has risen 15.9 percent.
- The cost of eating at restaurants has risen 8.5 percent over the same period.
- But amid growing concerns that the economy could be headed for a recession, some food companies and restaurants are continuing to raise prices even if their own inflation-driven costs have been covered. Critics say the moves are all about increasing profits, not covering expenses.
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Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’
Important Takeaways:
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns the US is just MONTHS away from a recession as the Fed battles to fight rising inflation – and is more likely to keep raising borrowing costs
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted that the US will fall into a recession in the coming months as the Federal Reserve tries to combat rampant inflation
- Although inflation has fallen to 8.3 percent as of August, it remains stubbornly high, with September’s report likely to influence the Fed’s decision
- The central bank has been aggressively increasing interest rates to quell inflation, with rates expected to end at 4.4 percent this year
- More aggressive rate hikes are also expected due to strong job growth and falling unemployment rates, as well as uncertainty in Ukraine
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Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’
Important Takeaways:
- Morgan Stanley Warns of Something Worse Than a ‘Normal Recession’
- Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson said that he’s convinced a corporate earnings recession is coming—and that it could be worse than a “normal” recession.
- Businesses reluctant to cut staff in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and as demand falls would put more pressure on profit margins, he warned. This could lead to a situation where unemployment doesn’t move up meaningfully but corporate earnings plunge.
- Separately, in an analytical note cited by Bloomberg, Wilson and his team of strategists said the soaring dollar was creating an “untenable situation” for stocks and this, combined with central banks tightening policy “at a historically hawkish pace,” means that odds are growing for “something to break.”
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Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’
Important Takeaways:
- U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Point to Recession Around Year’s End
- “The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term as recession risks grow,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.
- “Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices, and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June. The coincident economic index which rose in June suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.”
- A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our forecast of 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7 percent year-over-year
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Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”
Important Takeaways:
- 70% of Americans think a recession is coming: Here’s what they are doing to prepare
- A recession is defined as a significant economic decline that lasts more than a few months.
- Most Americans — 70% — already believe an economic downturn is on its way, according to a new survey from MagnifyMoney.
- High inflation is one of the biggest risk factors that make people think an economic decline is coming, along with high housing and rent prices and rising interest rates.
- In order to prepare for a downturn, many are focused on keeping their spending in line — 62% of respondents said they are cutting back on spending, while 39% are sticking to a budget.
- One in 4 respondents in the MagnifyMoney survey reported paying down debt as a way to get their finances ready for an economic downturn.
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Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”
Important Takeaways:
- More Misery on the Way: Americans Can’t Afford Gas and Groceries, so Economists Say Recession Very Likely
- With inflation now at 8.6% and food prices rising the fastest in 40 years, Americans are trying to find ways to get by, and that means less spending.
- Credit card debt, which dropped during the pandemic as Americans used government stimulus checks to pay down balances, has rebounded to all-time highs.
- Almost half of the economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal say a recession is likely in the next 12 months.
- Analyst Joel Griffith at the Heritage Foundation, has been runaway government spending.
- “Look, we spent about 6 trillion dollars extra over the past two years than we normally spend, and nearly every last dollar of that was printed by the Fed to purchase government debt. That’s why we have inflation now”
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Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”
Important Takeaways:
- Poll: Nearly 60% of U.S. Manufacturers See Inflation Leading to Recession
- Almost six in ten American manufacturers believe ongoing inflation will lead to a recession in the United States, a new survey from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) finds.
- In the latest NAM survey, more than 59 percent of American manufacturers said they believe inflation is likely to spur a recession in the United States
- 52 percent said they do not believe the Federal Reserve will be able to avert a recession
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Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”
Important Takeaways:
- Wall Street Sinks into Bear Market, Recession Possible as Americans Dip into Savings Just to Pay Soaring Bills
- On Wall Street, there are growing fears a recession could be coming, and a big decision anticipated Wednesday from the Federal Reserve is causing even more concern.
- The S&P 500, the index tied to most 401K retirement plans, finished down nearly four percent Monday and has now plunged more than 20 percent for the year
- Inflation is pounding consumers. Everything from gas – now averaging more than $5 a gallon nationally – to groceries is going up.
- A new survey shows 67 percent of Americans are dipping into savings to pay their bills and some are resorting to credit cards.
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Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”
Important Takeaways:
- The recession will hit in the first half of 2023 and the Dow is headed lower: CNBC CFO survey
- According to the majority (68%) of CFOs responding to the survey, a recession will occur during the first half of 2023. No CFO forecast a recession any later than the second half of next year, and no CFO thinks the economy will avoid a recession.
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