Tag Archives: President Vladimir Putin

Speculation of Six Russian ships heading to Ukraine as Putin nearly completes troop buildup

Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

Important Takeaways:

  • Six Russian landing ships sail past Britain sparking speculation they are bound for impending ‘full-scale invasion’ of Ukraine as Kiev warns Putin has ‘nearly completed’ troop build-up
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed over 100,000 troops, military hardware along Ukraine’s border
  • Ukraine intelligence assessment said Moscow had ‘nearly completed’ its build-up ahead of a possible invasion
  • Britain’s Ministry of Defense fears large-scale warfare engulfing cities and causing high civilian death tolls
  • It comes after the White House warned on Tuesday that the situation in the region was ‘extremely dangerous’

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‘Keep the defender guessing’: Russia’s military options on Ukraine

By Tom Balmforth

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s deployment of tens of thousands of troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine is fueling fears in Kyiv and Western capitals that Moscow is planning a new attack. Russia denies any such plans.

Western military analysts have suggested that Russia cannot keep such troops deployed where they are indefinitely due to financial and logistical issues and would need to pull them back by the summer of next year.

Estimates of the numbers of new Russian troops moved closer to Ukraine vary from 60,000-90,000, with a U.S. intelligence document suggesting that number could be ramped up to 175,000.

U.S. officials have warned Russia might launch a new attack against Ukraine as early as the second half of next month when the ground will be harder, making it easier for tanks and other armor to move swiftly.

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russian and U.S. officials would in January begin discussing Moscow’s proposals for security guarantees it wants from the West in order to defuse the current crisis and that he hoped for a positive outcome.

But what might a Russian attack actually look like and what could it seek to achieve?

“The current deployments are versatile. They keep Russia’s options open and therefore keep the defender guessing,” said Keir Giles, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

Here are some possible scenarios.

DONBASS ESCALATION

Heavily armed Russian-backed separatists have controlled a swath of eastern Ukraine since 2014 and continue to exchange fire with Ukrainian government forces on a regular basis despite a 2015 ceasefire that ended major hostilities.

The conflict in Donbass has killed 15,000 people, Kyiv says. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region, something Moscow denies.

Russia in turn has accused Kyiv of harboring plans to retake the region by force, something Ukraine denies.

In such a febrile atmosphere the risk of a misunderstanding or unplanned escalation is greater, and Russia could use such an incident as a casus belli.

One source familiar with the Russian Defense Ministry’s thinking said this was the most likely scenario if Moscow decided to attack, but said he was unaware of any such decision. Kyiv could also be provoked into attacking by the separatists who could then ask Russia to officially send in troops to help, the same source said.

Russian forces could expand the fighting in Donbass to draw Ukraine into a bloody, conventional conflict, said Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at RUSI. Moscow could try to seize new Ukrainian coastal areas on the Sea of Azov, creating a land bridge from the Russian city of Rostov through Donbass to Crimea, he said. “That would put the Ukrainian government under a lot of pressure,” he said.

ASSAULT FROM CRIMEA

Russia has brought in new forces to Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and said this week paratroopers would be holding new drills there.

Moscow could launch a new attack on Ukraine from Crimea and seize territory up to the Dnieper River that could serve as a natural barrier against a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive, said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan consultancy.

The operation could begin with massive artillery, missile and air strikes on Ukrainian units in the south. Spetsnaz units might seize bridges and railway junctions, allowing troops and tanks to advance, he said. There are only two roads from Crimea that could be blocked or destroyed, a potential weakness, he said.

Forces would secure control of a Soviet-era canal that provided Crimea with fresh water supplies until Russia annexed the territory and Ukraine stopped the flow.

MULTI-FRONT ATTACK

A U.S. intelligence document made public this month said Russia could stage an invasion as soon as January with up to 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) or some 175,000 troops. It said about 50 BTGs were already in place to the north and east of Ukraine and in Crimea to the south, creating the possibility of an attack from three sides.

Seizing southern Ukraine could make military sense for Moscow by cutting Kyiv off from the coast and NATO’s presence in the Black Sea, Melvin said. Politically, it could play well with Russian nationalists who see the area as the historic “Novorossiya” lands or “New Russia”.

A multi-front assault might also involve a move into northeastern Ukraine, with Moscow encircling but perhaps not entering major cities where it could get bogged down in urban fighting. Equally, Russian troops could move into Belarus, opening up a northern front for Ukraine that would put Russian forces closer to Kyiv, Giles said.

“This of course would be the most costly economically, politically and in terms of human lives and that’s probably why it’s least likely,” Melvin said of an all-out invasion.

Analysts said even if it overwhelmed Ukraine’s army, which is half the size of its own, Russia could face guerrilla-type resistance that would make it hard to hold on to captured territory.

MISSILE STRIKES OR CYBER-ATTACK

Giles said some scenarios could involve long-range missile attacks or cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure. Missile attacks would take advantage of Ukraine’s weaker anti-missile defenses.

“The different scenarios for how exactly Russia might seek to persuade the West to meet its (security) demands by punishing Kyiv don’t even necessarily include a land incursion,” he said.

(Reporting by Tom Balmforth; editing by Nick Macfie)

Putin says Russia has ‘nowhere to retreat’ over Ukraine

By Mark Trevelyan

(Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia had no room to retreat in a standoff with the United States over Ukraine and would be forced into a tough response unless the West dropped its “aggressive line.”

Putin addressed the remarks to military officials as Russia pressed for an urgent U.S. and NATO response to proposals it made last week for a binding set of security guarantees from the West.

“What the U.S. is doing in Ukraine is at our doorstep… And they should understand that we have nowhere further to retreat to. Do they think we’ll just watch idly?” Putin said.

“If the aggressive line of our Western colleagues continues, we will take adequate military-technical response measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps.”

Putin did not spell out the nature of these measures but his phrasing mirrored that used previously by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who has warned that Russia may redeploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO plans to do the same.

Russia rejects Ukrainian and U.S. charges that it may be preparing an invasion of Ukraine as early as next month by tens of thousands of Russian troops poised within reach of the border.

It says it needs pledges from the West – including a promise not to conduct NATO military activity in Eastern Europe – because its security is threatened by Ukraine’s growing ties with the Western alliance and the possibility of NATO missiles being deployed against it on Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelenskiy said on Friday that he was ready to meet Russia for “direct talks, tête-à-tête, we don’t mind in what format”. But Moscow has said repeatedly it sees no point in such a meeting without clarity on what the agenda would be.

A Kremlin statement said Putin stressed in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron that reconvening the four-power Normandy group – which brings together the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany – would require concrete steps by Kyiv to implement existing peace agreements. Ukraine says it is Russia and its proxies who are refusing to engage.

With Western powers keen to show Russia they are solid in their support of Ukraine and NATO, Germany’s new Chancellor Olaf Scholz also spoke by phone with Putin.

U.S. SUPPLIES

Karen Donfried, the U.S. State Department’s top diplomat for Europe, in a briefing with reporters, said Washington was prepared to engage with Moscow via three channels – bilaterally, through the NATO-Russia Council that last met in 2019, and at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

In the meantime, she said, the United States would continue to send military equipment and supplies to Ukraine in the weeks and months ahead – something that has antagonized Moscow.

“As President (Joe) Biden has told President Putin, should Russia further invade Ukraine, we will provide additional defensive materials to the Ukrainians above and beyond that which we are already in the process of providing,” she said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance would seek meaningful discussions with Moscow early next year.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu alleged that more than 120 U.S. private military contractors were active in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops have been fighting Russian-backed separatists since 2014, and said they were preparing a “provocation” involving chemical substances.

He offered no evidence in support of the claim, which Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described as “completely false”.

Throughout the crisis, Russia has veered between harsh rhetoric, calls for dialogue and dire warnings, with Ryabkov repeatedly comparing the situation to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war.

Many of its demands, including for a block on NATO membership for Ukraine and the withdrawal of U.S. and other allied troops from Eastern Europe, are seen as non-starters by Washington and its partners.

But rejecting them out of hand would risk closing off any space for dialogue and further fueling the crisis.

(Reporting by Maxim Rodionov, Andrew Osborn, Olzhas Auyezov, Polina Devitt, Natalia Zinets in Kyiv, Humeyra Pamuk, Simon Lewis and Idrees Ali in Washington, Sabine Siebold and Philip Blenkinsop in Brussels; writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

European court tells Russia ‘urgent changes’ needed to curb domestic violence

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The European Court of Human Rights on Tuesday ruled that Russia had not done enough to curb domestic violence and ordered it to pay substantial compensation to four women who were victims of brutal attacks.

Margarita Gracheva, whose husband kidnapped her and chopped off both her hands in 2007 after police dismissed her complaints about his aggressive behavior, is to receive more than 370,000 euros in compensation.

“The Court found, in particular, that the Russian authorities had failed to establish a legal framework to combat domestic violence effectively,” the European Court of Human Rights said in a statement.

The court said it recommended “urgent changes to domestic law and practice to prevent similar violations from occurring.”

The Russian justice ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In 2017, President Vladimir Putin signed a law easing penalties for domestic violence, citing a need to reduce state meddling in family life, but rights activists called it a step backwards.

In Russia, domestic violence is a particularly acute problem because patterns of macho male behavior are deeply ingrained and rights groups say the laws protecting women are inadequate.

(Reporting by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber; Editing by Ed Osmond)

Russia demands rescinding of NATO promise to Ukraine and Georgia

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia demanded on Friday that NATO rescind a 2008 commitment to Ukraine and Georgia that they would one day become members and said the alliance should promise not to deploy weapons in countries bordering Russia that could threaten its security.

The demands were spelt out by the Russian foreign ministry in its fullest statement yet on the security guarantees that President Vladimir Putin says he wants to obtain from the United States and its allies.

“In the fundamental interests of European security, it is necessary to formally disavow the decision of the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit that ‘Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members’,” the ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine is at the center of a crisis in East-West relations as it accuses Russia of massing tens of thousands of troops in preparation for a possible large-scale military offensive.

Russia denies planning any attack but accuses Ukraine and the United States of destabilizing behavior, and has said it needs security guarantees for its own protection.

The ministry statement followed a video call between Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden this week that was dominated by discussion of Ukraine.

The foreign ministry said Moscow was proposing a series of steps to reduce tensions, including to agree safe distances between Russian and NATO warships and planes, especially in the Baltic and Black Seas.

Moscow called for the renewing of a regular defense dialogue with the United States and NATO and urged Washington to join a moratorium on deploying intermediate-range nuclear forces in Europe.

(Writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky and Frances Kerry)

Britain warns Putin: don’t invade Ukraine

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – Britain’s defense minister called on President Vladimir Putin on Thursday to pull back from the brink over Ukraine and warned that Russia would face long-term severe consequences if its forces invaded its neighbor.

“Any action by Russia to threaten the sovereignty of Ukraine would not only have severe consequences – they’d have long lasting consequences for Russia,” Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said.

Wallace called on Kremlin chief Putin to step back from any such moves which he said could trigger a deadly civil war on the edge of Europe.

“I would just urge him to think again: I don’t think Russia wants those consequences,” Wallace said. “I don’t want to see a civil war or a war at the edge of Europe.”

U.S. intelligence assesses that Russia could be planning a multi-front offensive on Ukraine as early as next year, involving up to 175,000 troops.

The Kremlin denies it plans to invade and says the West is gripped by Russophobia. Moscow says the expansion of NATO threatens Russia and has contravened assurances given to it as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Wallace said that Russian talk of NATO encirclement was nonsense.

“Only 6% of the Russian land border is bordered by NATO countries – that’s hardly being surrounded by NATO,” Wallace said.

“NATO is a defensive alliance – it is in our articles of establishment. It is only there to defend itself and its members if it were to be attacked.”

Wallace said it was up to sovereign states and NATO members if they joined NATO – not Russia.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Kate Holton)

Ukraine shows off U.S. military hardware, vows to fight off Russia

By Natalia Zinets and Matthias Williams

KYIV (Reuters) – Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday said his armed forces were capable of fighting off any Russian attack, as the country marked its national army day with a display of U.S. armored vehicles and patrol boats.

U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged his “unwavering support” to Ukraine in its standoff with Moscow and will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to try to defuse the crisis. Zelenskiy is set to speak to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday.

Ukraine has accused Russia of massing tens of thousands of troops near its border in preparation for a possible large-scale military offensive, raising the prospect of open war between the two neighbors.

“The servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to fulfil their most important mission – to defend the freedom and sovereignty of the state from the Russian aggressor,” Zelenskiy said in a statement.

“The Ukrainian army … is confident in its strength and able to thwart any conquest plans of the enemy,” he said.

Russia has dismissed talk of a new assault on Ukraine as false and inflammatory but told the West not to cross its “red lines” and to halt the eastward expansion of the NATO alliance.

NATO MEMBERSHIP

Decked out in khaki armor and helmet, Zelenskiy flew east to shake hands with soldiers at the frontline in the Donetsk region, where Ukraine’s army has fought Russian-backed forces in a conflict that Kyiv says has killed 14,000 people since 2014.

He then flew to Kharkiv, a city near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia and a traditional center for weapons manufacturing, to mark a delivery of tanks, armored personal carriers and armored vehicles made in the city’s factories.

Standing in front of rows of soldiers, tanks and planes on the city’s main square on Monday evening, Zelenskiy trumpeted the ways in which Ukraine’s military had equipped itself with the help of NATO allies.

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that now aspires to join the European Union and NATO, has received Javelin anti-tank missiles from the United States, sophisticated drones from Turkey and signed a deal with Britain to build ships and new naval bases on Ukraine’s southern coast.

Several cities across Ukraine are marking the 30th anniversary of the creation of an independent military after winning independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

“Today, together with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I am here in Kharkiv on Freedom Square,” Zelenskiy said in an address.

“This is significant, because freedom for us is the greatest value,” he said, adding: “it is a symbol of our state, all of Ukraine, which was defended from Russia’s aggression in 2014 by our soldiers and continues to be defended by them today.”

Kyiv, Lviv and the southern port city of Odessa displayed U.S.-made Humvees. In Odessa, there was also a ceremony to hand over two recently delivered U.S. Coast Guard patrol boats intended to bolster Ukraine’s navy.

Ukraine has urged NATO to accelerate its entry into the military alliance and said Moscow had no right to veto such a move. NATO’s leadership has been supportive but said Ukraine must carry out defense reforms and tackle corruption first.

(Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Paul Simao)

India, Russia strike trade, arms deals during Putin visit

By Alasdair Pal and Neha Arora

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Russia and India signed a flurry of trade and arms deals during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, including one that will see India produce more than 600,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles.

Putin travelled to India with Russia’s defense and foreign ministers in a visit that saw the two countries reinforce their ties with a military and technical cooperation pact until 2031 and a pledge to boost annual trade to $30 billion by 2025.

The Russian president is visiting India amid increasingly strained relations between Russia and the United States, also a key Indian ally, which has expressed reservations about the growing military cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.

A joint statement published after the talks said Russia and India had “reiterated their intention to strengthen defense cooperation, including in the joint development of production of military equipment.”

In addition to the deal for India to produce AK-203 assault rifles, Russia said it was interested in continuing to provide S-400 air defense missile systems.

India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said the two countries had signed 28 investment pacts, including deals on steel, shipbuilding, coal and energy. He added that a 2018 contract for the S-400 missile systems was currently being implemented.

“Supplies have begun this month, and will continue to happen,” he said, referring to the S-400.

The deal with Moscow puts India at risk of sanctions from the United States under a 2017 U.S. law aimed at deterring countries from buying Russian military hardware.

Russian oil company Rosneft said it signed a contract with Indian Oil to supply up to 2 million tonnes of oil to India by the end of 2022.

The countries also signed a memorandum of understanding for Russia to send an uninterrupted supply of coal to India to support its steel production, among other deals.

Putin and Modi also discussed the situation in Afghanistan, voicing their commitment to ensure that the country will never become a safe haven for international terrorism.

(Reporting by Alasdair Pal in New Delhi and Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber in Moscow; Editing by Alex Richardson and Paul Simao)

Putin says West taking Russia’s ‘red lines’ too lightly

By Tom Balmforth and Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW (Reuters) -President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the West was taking Russia’s warnings not to cross its “red lines” too lightly and that Moscow needed serious security guarantees from the West.

In a wide-ranging foreign policy speech, the Kremlin leader also described relations with the United States as “unsatisfactory” but said Russia remained open to dialogue with Washington.

The Kremlin said in September that NATO would overstep a Russian red line if it expanded its military infrastructure in Ukraine, and Moscow has since accused Ukraine and NATO of destabilizing behavior, including in the Black Sea.

In the televised speech, Putin complained that Western strategic bombers carrying “very serious weapons” were flying within 20 km (12.5 miles) of Russia’s borders.

“We’re constantly voicing our concerns about this, talking about red lines, but we understand our partners – how shall I put it mildly – have a very superficial attitude to all our warnings and talk of red lines,” Putin said.

NATO – with which Moscow severed ties last month – had destroyed all mechanisms for dialogue, Putin said.

He told foreign ministry officials that Russia needed to seek long-term guarantees of its security from the West, though he said this would be difficult and did not spell out what form the assurances should take.

Russia-West ties have been at post-Cold War lows for years, but the tone has sharpened in recent weeks as Ukraine and NATO countries have raised fears over Russian troop movements near Ukraine’s borders and tried to guess Moscow’s real intentions.

But despite a growing list of disputes, the Kremlin has maintained high-level contacts with Washington and spoken repeatedly of a possible summit between Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden to follow up their initial meeting in Geneva in June, which Putin said had opened up room for an improvement in ties.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan discussed cybersecurity, Ukraine and the migrant crisis on the Belarus border in a phone call on Wednesday, the Kremlin said.

“This was all in the framework of preparation for … high-level contact,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Tom Balmforth and Darya Korsunskaya; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Russia ends workplace shutdown but COVID numbers stay high

By Tom Balmforth

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Most Russians went back to work on Monday for the first time in more than a week as a nationwide workplace shutdown was lifted across most regions, even though the numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths are hovering near record daily highs.

President Vladimir Putin announced last month that Oct. 30 to Nov. 7 would be paid “non-working days” – an attempt to slow the surge in cases by imposing the strictest nationwide restrictions since the early months of the pandemic last year.

But officials on Monday reported 1,190 nationwide coronavirus-related deaths in the last 24 hours, higher than in the days before the enforced work break and just five short of the record reported last Thursday.

There were 39,400 new COVID-19 cases, down from a peak of 41,335 on Saturday.

The Kremlin said it was early to judge the impact of the shutdown yet, but it cited Moscow’s mayor, a close Putin ally, as saying the epidemic in the capital was stabilizing.

Despite developing one of the first vaccines against COVID-19 infection last year, Russia has failed to persuade swathes of the population to accept it. Only around 40 percent of the population is immunized.

Immunologist Nikolay Kryuchkov told Reuters he was skeptical of the effectiveness of the work pause, which only a handful of Russia’s more than 80 regions have chosen to extend into this week.

“I think it will either have a weak effect or a very weak effect,” Kryuchkov said. “It has to be longer and fuller… This is not the same as a European lockdown. It’s a much softer version.”

While people were not meant to work during the lockdown, there was nothing to stop them socializing or travelling in Russia or abroad. Travel agents reported a boom in people flying off on foreign beach holidays.

In Moscow, all shops apart from pharmacies and supermarkets were meant to close, but some pubs and beauty salons were still working.

Kryuchkov said rather than relaxing the curbs, regions such as Moscow and St Petersburg should be expanding them and keeping them in place for longer.

“I fear there is going to be a significant period in which we stay at the same point (in the pandemic) and then it will go down and the rate is going to slowly fall. That is not a very good scenario,” he said.

The Kremlin has said it is up to regional authorities to tailor their lockdowns to match the severity of the outbreaks they face.

Many regions that have lifted the workplace shutdown will now require visitors to present a QR code on their mobile phones when visiting cafes, restaurants or shopping centers to prove they have been vaccinated or previously had the virus.

The situation in the region surrounding Moscow remained “tense”, but the number of people being rushed to hospital has stabilized over the last week, a senior local health official was quoted by TASS news agency as saying.

The recent surge in COVID-19 inpatients has put oxygen supplies under strain, and the Russian navy’s Baltic Fleet said it had handed over five tonnes of liquefied oxygen to help treat hospital patients, the Interfax news agency reported.

(Reporting by Tom Balmforth, Gleb Stolyarov, Maria Kiselyova, Polina Nikolskaya; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Peter Graff)