Tag Archives: jobless rate

Former Treasury Secretary says the U.S. must sustain a jobless rate to bring down inflation

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Larry Summers says Americans will have to lose jobs to ease inflation
  • Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says the U.S. must sustain a jobless rate of more than 5% for five years if inflation is to drop.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate currently sits at 3.6%.
  • “We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation – in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment,” Summers said in a London speech

Read the original article by clicking here.

U.S. weekly jobless claims hit more than 48-and-a-half-year low

FILE PHOTO: Job seekers and recruiters gather at TechFair in Los Angeles, California, U.S. March 8, 2018. REUTERS/Monica Almeida

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to a more than 48-1/2-year low last week as the labor market strengthens further, but trade tensions are casting a shadow over the economy’s outlook.

Other data on Thursday showed manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated in July amid a surge in orders received by factories. But the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey also showed manufacturers paying more for inputs and less upbeat about business conditions over the next six months.

Fewer manufacturers planned to increase capital spending, suggesting trade tensions, marked by tit-for-tat import tariffs between the United States and its trade partners, including China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, could be starting to hurt business sentiment.

The survey came on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on Wednesday, showing manufacturers in all districts worried about the tariffs and reporting higher prices and supply disruptions, which they blamed on the new trade policies.

“Yesterday’s Beige Book and the recent decline in the investment intentions balance in the Philly Fed survey show that escalating trade tensions are starting to have a material impact on companies’ confidence about the future,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at ratings agency Fitch.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended July 14, the lowest reading since early December 1969, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 220,000 in the latest week.

The second straight weekly decline in claims, however, likely reflects difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year when motor vehicle manufacturers shut assembly lines for annual retooling.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 to 220,500 last week.

The dollar firmed against a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street were lower, while prices for U.S. Treasuries rose.

WORKER SHORTAGE

The claims data covered the survey week for the nonfarm payrolls component of July’s employment report. The four-week average of claims dipped 500 between the June and July survey periods, suggesting solid job growth this month.

The economy created 213,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.0 percent as more Americans entered the labor force, in a sign of confidence in their job prospects.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that with appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong “over the next several years.”

The labor market is viewed as being near or at full employment. There were 6.6 million unfilled jobs in May, an indication that companies cannot find qualified workers.

That was reinforced by the Beige Book, which showed worker shortages persisting in early July across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, information technology professionals and truck drivers.

Thursday’s survey from the Philadelphia Fed showed its business conditions index jumped to a reading of 25.7 in July from 19.9 in June. The survey’s measure of new orders increased to 31.4 from a reading of 17.9 in June.

But its gauge of factory employment fell as did the average workweek. Manufacturers also continued to report higher prices for both purchased inputs and their own manufactured goods. The survey’s prices paid index soared to 62.9 this month, the highest level since June 2008, from 51.8 in June.

The index has risen 30 points since January. Sixty-three percent of manufacturers in the region reported paying more for inputs this month compared with 54 percent in June.

The price increases are likely related to tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which were imposed by the Trump administration to protect domestic industries from what it says is unfair foreign competition.

Wednesday’s Beige Book mentioned a machinery manufacturer in the Philadelphia area who described the effects of the steel tariffs as “chaotic to its supply chain, disrupting planned orders, increasing prices, and prompting some panic buying.”

The Philadelphia survey’s index for future activity decreased for the fourth straight month. Capital spending plans over the next six months also fell as did intentions to hire more factory workers.

“Further escalation could create worse conditions and this remains a downside risk to the otherwise positive outlook over the next year,” said Adam Ozimek, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. job openings hit record high of 6.7 million in April

FILE PHOTO: A man carrying a stack of job listings listens to a discussion at the One Stop employment center in San Francisco, California, August 12, 2009. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith/File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job openings rose to a record high in April, but hiring continued to lag, pointing to a worsening shortage of workers.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased to a seasonally adjusted 6.7 million from 6.6 million in March, the Labor Department said on Tuesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS.

That was the highest level since the government started tracking the series in December 2000. The number of hires rose to 5.6 million in April from 5.5 million in the prior month.

The labor market is viewed as being either near or at full employment, with the jobless rate at an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. job growth surges, unemployment rate falls to 3.8 percent

FILE PHOTO: Job seekers line up to apply during "Amazon Jobs Day," a job fair being held at 10 fulfillment centers across the United States aimed at filling more than 50,000 jobs, at the Amazon.com Fulfillment Center in Fall River, Massachusetts, U.S., August 2, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth accelerated in May and the unemployment rate dropped to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent, pointing to rapidly tightening labor market conditions, which could stir concerns about inflation.

The closely watched employment report released by the Labor Department on Friday also showed wages rising solidly, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month. The bullish report also raises the possibility that the economy could overheat.

Overall, the U.S. economy looks strong,” said Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. “In that environment, we still expect the Fed to hike interest rates an additional three times this year.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 jobs last month as warm weather boosted hiring at construction sites. There were also big gains in retail and leisure and hospitality payrolls. The economy created 15,000 more jobs than previously reported in March and April.

Last month’s one-tenth of a percentage point drop in the unemployment rate pushed it to a level last seen in April 2000. The jobless rate is now at a level that the Fed forecast it would be at by the end of this year.

Average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.3 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in April. That lifted the annual increase in average hourly earnings to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in April.

The strong employment report added to a string of upbeat economic data, including consumer spending, industrial production and construction spending, that have suggested economic growth was regaining speed early in the second quarter after slowing at the beginning of the year.

The strength comes even as the stimulus from a $1.5 trillion income tax cut package and increased government spending is yet to filter through the economy. Renewed fears of a trade war after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, however, cast a dark cloud over the economic outlook.

Inflation is running just below the Fed’s 2.0 percent target. The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs in March and forecast at least two more rate hikes for this year.

After the employment report, traders increased bets that the Fed would raise interest rates four times this year. U.S. Treasury yields rose and the dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.

BROAD JOB GAINS

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast nonfarm payrolls increasing by 188,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate steady at 3.9 percent.

Monthly job gains have averaged about 179,000 over the last three months, more than the roughly 120,000 needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Though the labor market is viewed as being close to or at full employment, there is still some slack remaining.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell to 62.7 percent last month from 62.8 percent in April. It has declined for three straight months.

Still, the labor market is getting tighter. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell to 7.6 percent last month, the lowest since May 2001, from 7.8 percent in April.

With job growth expected to slow as employers struggle to find qualified workers, economists expected wage growth will pick up significantly.

The Fed’s latest Beige Book report of anecdotal information on business activity collected from contacts nationwide showed labor market conditions remained tight across the country in late April and early May. The Fed said contacts continued to report difficulty filling positions across skill levels.

There were notable shortages of truck drivers, sales personnel, carpenters, electricians, painters, and information technology professionals, the central bank said in its report published on Wednesday.

Job gains in May were across all sectors. Construction payrolls increased by 25,000 after rising by 21,000 jobs in April. Construction employment fell in March for the first time in eight months.

Manufacturers added another 18,000 jobs last month on top of the 25,000 created in April. Further gains are likely, with a survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showing a pickup in factory activity in May. But some manufacturers said the steel tariffs were pushing up prices.

Government payrolls increased by 5,000, reversing April’s 3,000 drop. Retailers boosted employment by 31,100 jobs last month. Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 21,000 jobs.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S housing starts surge in December; jobless claims near 43-year low

A "For Rent" sign is posted outside a residential home in Carlsbad, California,

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding rebounded more than expected in December as a strengthening economy boosts demand for rental housing.

Other data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly falling last week to a near 43-year low, pointing to a further tightening in the labor market that should underpin economic growth this year.

Housing starts jumped 11.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts increasing to a 1.20 million-unit rate in December.

Groundbreaking on new housing projects increased 4.9 percent to 1.17 million in 2016. The housing market remains on solid ground even as mortgage rates have jumped above 4 percent. The tightening labor market is driving demand for multi-family housing, which has pushed up rents.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Jan. 14. That was just shy of the 233,000 level touched in mid-November, which was the lowest since November 1973.

It was the 98th straight week that claims remained below

300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better

measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week

volatility, fell 10,250 to 246,750 last week, the lowest level since November 1973. The labor market is considered to be at or near full employment, with the unemployment rate near a nine-year low of 4.7 percent.

U.S. financial markets moved slightly on the data.

Home building is expected to make a modest contribution to economic growth in the fourth quarter after being a drag on gross domestic product in the prior two periods.

A survey on Wednesday showed homebuilders’ confidence easing slightly in January, but remaining not far from levels last seen in July 2005. Construction remains constrained by shortages of lots and labor. Builders are hoping that the incoming Trump administration will streamline and reform regulations.

Republican Donald Trump, who will be sworn in as president on Friday, has pledged to reduce regulations, among other policy initiatives.

Last month, single-family home building, which accounts for

the largest share of the residential housing market, fell 4.0

percent to a 795,000-unit pace. Starts for the volatile multi-family homes segment soared 57.3 percent to a 431,000-unit pace.

Permits for future home construction slipped 0.2 percent to a 1.21 million-rate last month as approvals for the multi-family segment fell 9.0 percent. However, permits for single-family homes construction rose 4.7 percent.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. jobless claims hit three month low

A sign advertising "Summer Jobs" hangs on a lamp post in Somerville, Massachusetts,

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, hitting a three-month low as the labor market continues to gather momentum.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 253,000 for the week ended July 16, the lowest reading since April, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

Claims are near the 43-year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 265,000 in the latest week.

Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 72 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1973. Claims tend to be volatile around this time of the year when automobile manufacturers normally idle assembly lines for retooling. Some, however, often keep production running, which can throw off the model the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s claims data and no states had been estimated. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 1,250 to 257,750 last week.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data, with investors’ attention focused on a speech by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi.

The claims data covered the survey week for July’s nonfarm payrolls. The four-week average of claims fell 9,000 between the June and July periods, suggesting another month of strong job gains. The economy added a whopping 287,000 jobs in June, the largest this year.

Labor market strength, characterized by the very low layoffs and solid pace of hiring, is boosting consumer spending, which in turn is providing a lift to economic growth.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the government is expected to report next week that the economy grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, an acceleration from the 1.1 percent pace logged in the first three months of the year.

Although a separate report on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region contracted this month, a surge in new orders and shipments suggested the worst of the manufacturing downturn was probably over.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business index fell to a reading of -2.9 this month from 4.7 in June.

Twenty-two percent of the firms, which participated in the survey, reported an increase in activity – three points lower than in June. Fifty-one percent of firms reported steady activity this month, little changed from June.

The new orders sub-index rose to 11.8 this month from -3.0 in June, with shipments rebounding to 6.3 from -2.1 in June.

Manufacturing has been hurt by a strong dollar and sluggish global demand, which have undercut U.S. exports, as well as efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory overhang. Lower oil prices have also weighed on manufacturing as energy firms cut back on capital spending in response to reduced profits.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. jobless claims hover at lower levels

Job seekers fill out applications during 11th annual Skid Row Career Fair the Los Angeles Mission in Los Angeles

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly held at lower levels last week, pointing to further momentum in the labor market after job growth surged in June.

Another report on Thursday showed producer prices recorded their biggest gain in a year in June on rising costs for energy products and services. The data signaled economic strength that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 254,000 for the week ended July 9, the Labor Department said. Claims are near the 43-year low of 248,000 touched in mid-April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 265,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 71 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.

The labor market is on a strong footing, with nonfarm payrolls having increased by a robust 287,000 jobs in June, which should underpin economic growth for the rest of the year.

Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell slightly and the dollar pared losses against a basket of currencies after Thursday’s data. U.S. stock futures were trading higher.

In a second report, the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose 0.5 percent last month, the largest increase since May 2015, after advancing 0.4 percent in May.

In the 12 months through June, the PPI increased 0.3 percent, rising for the first time since December 2014, after slipping 0.1 percent in May.

Producer inflation is being boosted by the fading drag from a strong dollar and lower oil prices.

The dollar’s surge between June 2014 and December 2015 put downward pressure on producer prices, helping to keep inflation below the Fed’s 2 percent target.

The greenback’s rally appears to be over. The currency has slipped on a trade-weighted basis this year while oil prices have rebounded from multi-year lows.

Last month, energy prices jumped 4.1 percent after increasing 2.8 percent in May. Prices for services rose 0.4 percent after gaining 0.2 percent in May. Services were boosted by a surge in costs related to securities brokerage and dealing.

Healthcare costs were unchanged as a 0.1 percent rise in doctor visits was offset by weak home healthcare services.

A key measure of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services rose 0.3 percent last month after edging down 0.1 percent in May. The so-called core PPI was up 0.9 percent in the 12 months through June. The core PPI increased 0.8 percent in May.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected

A job seeker listens to a recruiter from the Federal Bureau of Prisons at a health care job fair sponsored by the Colorado Hospital Association in Denver

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, moving back to near cycle lows as the labor markets remain healthy and the economy regains momentum after stumbling in the first quarter.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended May 21, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims falling to 275,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong job market, for 64 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.

While the two consecutive weeks of decline helped to unwind some of the jump in claims between late April and early May, the trend in jobless claims has become less favorable.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,750 to 278,500 last week.

Economists blame a range of factors for the recent spike in claims, including the different timing of school spring breaks, which often makes it difficult to adjust the data. An ongoing strike by Verizon workers as well as possible disruptions to manufacturing activity in the wake of recent earthquakes in Japan have also been cited.

Economists expect the strike by the about 40,000 Verizon employees will hurt May payrolls because they would be considered unemployed as they would not have received a paycheck during the survey period. The government will release its closely watched employment report next Friday.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s claims data and only claims for Wyoming had been estimated.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 10,000 to 2.16 million in the week ended May 14. The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims increased 8,500 to 2.15 million.

The continuing claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed households for May’s unemployment rate.

The four-week average of continuing claims fell 6,000 between the April and May survey periods. That suggests little change in the unemployment rate, which was at 5.0 percent in April.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Americans filing for unemployment benefits bouncing back

ob applicants await their turn at the Lockheed Martin booth at "Hiring Our Heroes" military job fair in

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits bounced back from a 42-1/2-year low last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with tightening labor market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 257,000 for the week ended April 23, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 more applications than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 260,000 in the latest week. Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 60 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s claims data and no states hadbeen estimated.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 4,750 to 256,000 last week, the lowest since December 1973.

The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased 5,000 to 2.13 million in the week ended April 16, the lowest since November 2000.

The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims declined 10,500 to 2.16 million, the lowest reading since November 2000. The continuing claims data covered the survey week for April’s unemployment rate.

The four-week average of continuing claims fell 47,750 between the March and April survey periods, suggesting an improvement in the unemployment rate. The jobless rate was at 5.0 percent in March.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)