Tag Archives: Interest Rates

Wall Street hits new high as post-election rally roars ahead

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S.,

By Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) – Wall Street’s post-election rally showed no signs of fatigue as the three major indexes hit all-time highs on Thursday.

Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president last month sparked euphoria on Wall Street, with investors chasing stocks that are likely to gain from his proposals to spend more on infrastructure and simplify industry regulation.

“Investors are getting excited over the prospects of a new administration, a fresh mindset and a man who knows how to do business,” said Andre Bakhos, managing director at Janlyn Capital in Bernardsville, New Jersey.

“While there was also a technical aspect to the move yesterday … the mindset right now is that any pullback is seen as bullish. It’s an opportunity to buy into the market, not sell.”

The Dow industrials, the Dow Transport, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 indexes closed at record levels on Wednesday.

The European Central Bank unexpectedly reduced its asset purchase plans to 60 billion euros ($64 billion) from the current 80 billion euros on Thursday, but reserved the right to increase buying once again.

Adding to the bullish tone was a report that showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell from a five-month high last week, pointing to a robust labor market and building on a recent spate of strong economic data.

At 9:42 a.m. ET the Dow Jones industrial average was up 39.58 points, or 0.2 percent, at 19,589.2. It hit a record high of 19,592.95 – its 10th since the Nov.8 election.

The S&P 500 was up 2.13 points, or 0.1 percent, at 2,243.48, slightly below its high of 2,243.56.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 8.60 points, or 0.16 percent, at 5,402.36, easing from a high of 5,403.88.

Eight of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were lower, but the losses were offset by a 0.85 percent rise in financials and gains in materials and energy.

Bank of America, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo rose between 0.9 percent and 1.6 percent, boosting the S&P 500.

Investors, however, are likely to tread cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where traders see a more than 90 chance of an interest rate hike.

Lululemon soared 17.3 percent to $70.20 following the yoga and leisure apparel retailer’s reported of a better-than-expected quarterly profit.

Costco rose 2.5 percent to $157.86 in thin trading after the warehouse club retailer reported a quarterly profit that beat analysts’ expectations.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,317 to 1,289. On the Nasdaq, 1,141 issues rose and 1,126 fell.

The S&P 500 index showed 83 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 173 new highs and five new lows.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

Yellen says Fed could raise interest rates ‘relatively soon’

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at "The Elusive 'Great' Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S.,

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates “relatively soon” if economic data keeps pointing to an improving labor market and rising inflation, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in a clear hint the U.S. central bank could hike next month.

Yellen said Fed policymakers at their meeting earlier in November judged that the case for a rate hike had strengthened.

“Such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon,” Yellen said in prepared remarks that were her first public comments since the United States elected Republican Donald Trump to be the country’s next president.

Yellen, who was to deliver the remarks to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, said the economy appeared on track to grow moderately, which would help bring about full employment and push inflation toward the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Lawmakers on the committee, which includes members of both the House and Senate, will have an opportunity to question Yellen after she speaks.

The Fed chair gave a generally upbeat assessment of an economy that continues to generate jobs at a pace adequate to absorb new employees and keep others engaged in work. Wage growth “has stepped up,” Yellen said. Consumer spending, critical as the major component of U.S. gross domestic product, “continued to post moderate gains,” and help economic growth rebound from a weak first half. She said she expects firming in global growth, for months now considered a primary risk given weakness in Europe and China.

Indeed the major question mark for the Fed may now be the actions of the president-elect. His cabinet and policies are still taking shape. But the proposals outlined in his campaign could change the Fed’s baseline outlook substantially if he follows through on plans to cut taxes, roll out hundreds of billions of dollars in new infrastructure spending, and rip up free trade agreements.

Yellen did not mention the election in her prepared remarks. Other Fed officials in recent days have said a major change in fiscal policy could force them to shift gears if, for example, inflation begins to accelerate. But they also said they need to wait and see what the new administration proposes and what gets approved by the Republican-controlled Congress.

As it stands, Yellen said the current federal funds rate of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent is boosting economic activity, and that the country has “a bit more room to run” before inflation becomes much of a concern.

Right now, she said, “the risk of falling behind the curve in the near future appears limited,” and warrants only a gradual increase in the federal funds rate.

But that could shift, particularly as the new administration takes shape.

“The appropriate path for the federal funds rate will change in response to changes to the outlook,” Yellen said.

(Reporting by Jason Lange and Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

On election day, Fed official urges U.S. fiscal investments

presidential election at Public School P.S. 56 in the Manhattan borough of New York, USA

By Jonathan Spicer

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. lawmakers should take advantage of low interest rates by making infrastructure investments and encouraging innovations that boost productivity, a Federal Reserve policymaker said on Tuesday as Americans voted in a presidential election.

Charles Evans, head of the Chicago Fed, waded into the fiscal policy debate just as polls opened. An outspoken dove at the central bank, he said his prediction of 1.75 to 2 percent future economic growth was “informed by some assessment of what policies we are likely to entertain” out of Washington.

The Fed, which is expected to raise rates before year end, has occasionally emerged as an issue in the divisive campaign between front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Trump, a Republican, said Fed Chair Janet Yellen was keeping rates low to boost President Barack Obama, a Democrat.

The Fed typically avoids prescribing fiscal policies, though its members have been more strident as their plans for a more aggressive policy tightening fizzled in the face of sub-par growth this year.

“Fiscal policy, if it were more stimulative and if it could be directed into more socially productive uses (like) infrastructure investments that strike me as something we need to do anyway, why not do it when interest rates are lower,” Evans said at a Council on Foreign Relations breakfast.

“That would end up probably increasing real rates too and that would help all of us out.”

Clinton has pledged to unveil a plan to rebuild U.S. infrastructure during her first 100 days, saying this would create new jobs. Trump has proposed increasing spending on the U.S. military and infrastructure but says he would reduce spending on other categories by 1 percent each year.

“There is a real risk if we focus too much on the debt,” Evans said, adding that fiscal policies “might incent certain types of investments or innovations.”

“If you’re restricting labor input so that we’re not going to get growth … it’s just simple arithmetic that’s going to be limiting to what our possibilities are,” he added.

Turning to the Fed’s 2-percent inflation mandate, Evans noted a preferred price measure is now up to 1.7 percent.

“We’re close, we’re getting there, and if I had even more confidence that we were going to get to 2 percent then I’d feel better about monetary policy normalization,” he said.

But there remain “reasons to be nervous about inflation,” including low expectations and the tendency of prices to be “inertial” after years below target, he said.

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Rising gasoline, rents push U.S. inflation higher in September

A Shell gas station is shown in Encinitas, California

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices recorded their biggest gain in five months in September as the cost of gasoline and rents surged, pointing to a steady pickup of inflation that could keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates in December.

The Labor Department said on Tuesday its Consumer Price Index increased 0.3 percent last month after rising 0.2 percent in August. In the 12 months through September, the CPI accelerated 1.5 percent, the biggest year-on-year increase since October 2014. The CPI rose 1.1 percent in the year to August.

“The upward creep of prices weakens any argument against a rate increase in December,” said Anthony Karydakis, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York. “The economy is close to full employment and prices are starting to respond to that reality.”

Last month’s increase in the CPI was in line with economists’ expectations. However, underlying inflation moderated amid a slowdown in the pace of increases in healthcare costs after recent robust gains.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, gained 0.1 percent last month after climbing 0.3 percent in August. That slowed the year-on-year increase in the core CPI to 2.2 percent following a 2.3 percent rise in August.

But with rents, which account for a larger share of the core CPI, recording their biggest increase in nearly 10 years, and wages pushing higher, economists cautioned against putting too much emphasis on last month’s weak reading.

The U.S. central bank has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is at 1.7 percent. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said on Monday that the U.S. central bank was “very close” to its inflation and employment targets.

“As inflation approaches 2 percent, the argument that the economy has more room to run becomes harder to make and we believe the Fed remains on track for a rate hike in December,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

The Fed lifted its short-term interest rate last December and has held it steady since because of persistently low inflation.

The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while prices for longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rose slightly. U.S. stocks rallied, cheered by better-than-expected quarterly earnings from UnitedHealth, Netflix and Goldman Sachs.

FIRMING DEMAND

While the jump in overall inflation was also the result of last year’s lower energy prices dropping out of the calculation, it suggested firming domestic demand.

A 5.8 percent jump in gasoline prices accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI last month. Americans also paid more for electricity, with prices posting their biggest gain since December 2014.

The price increases are bad news for retirees, with social security recipients only due to get a 0.3 percent cost of living adjustment increase next year. Households, however, got some relief from food prices in September, which were unchanged for a third straight month. The cost of food consumed at home declined for a fifth straight month.

Within the core CPI basket, housing costs rose further in September. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence increased 0.4 percent, the largest gain since October 2006, after rising 0.3 percent in August. Rents tend to be sticky and should keep core inflation supported.

Medical care costs rose 0.2 percent last month, the smallest increase since March, after surging 1.0 percent in August. The cost of hospital services was unchanged, while prices for prescription medicine rose 0.8 percent.

The government revised prices for prescription drugs from May through August this year as incorrect data had been used to calculate price changes. Prescription medicine accounts for about 1.4 percent of the CPI basket.

Consumers also paid more for grooming, motor vehicle insurance, tobacco and airline fares. However, prices for communication recorded their largest decline in two years, while heavy discounting by retailers pushed apparel prices down 0.7 percent. Prices for motor vehicles also fell.

“Inflation is moving up, showing this is not an economy that is undergoing serious demand-based weakness,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Nasdaq hits record high after Fed leaves rates unchanged

Floor governor Giacchi gives a price for Noble Midstream Partners LP, during the company's IPO on the floor of the New York Stock

By Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) – The Nasdaq hit a record intraday high on Thursday amid broad gains in U.S. stocks, a day after the Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates.

While the risks to economic outlook were roughly “balanced”, the Fed maintained rates as inflation continued to run below its 2 percent target and members saw room for improvement in the labor market.

The central bank slowed the pace of future hikes and cut its longer run interest rate forecast to 2.9 percent from 3 percent, but sent a strong signal for a move by the end of this year.

“The Fed probably appeared less hawkish than what the markets had expected,” said Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management in Chicago. “I think the market continues to be focused on the Fed pushing a hike for later as a good thing rather than bad.”

The consensus among economists is for a hike in December as the Fed’s November meeting comes right around the U.S. Presidential elections.

The probability of a November hike stands at a modest 12.4 percent, and rises to 58.4 percent for December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The dollar index dropped 0.6 percent on Thursday, and was on track to mark the second straight day of losses after the central bank’s decision.

Oil prices rose about 1.8 percent as the dollar fell and U.S. crude inventories recorded a surprise drop.

At 9:36 a.m. ET (1336 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 132.52 points, or 0.72 percent, at 18,426.22.

The S&P 500 was up 15.01 points, or 0.69 percent, at 2,178.13.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 32.98 points, or 0.62 percent, at 5,328.22, after rising as much as 0.65 percent to a record of 5329.92.

The S&P energy index surged 1.33 percent and was the top gainer among the 11 major sectors of the benchmark index.

Adding some support to the Fed’s plans for at least one hike this year was a report that showed the number of Americans applying for unemployment last week fell to a two-month low.

Shares of Apple rose 0.9 percent to $114.56 and was the top influence on the S&P and the Nasdaq after Nomura and RBC raised their price targets.

Red Hat rose 6.7 percent to $82.27 after the Linux operating system distributor reported second-quarter revenue and profit that beat market expectations.

One weak spot was Jabil Circuit, which dropped nearly 6 percent to $22.34 after the contract electronics maker said it intended to realign its business at a cost of $195 million over two years.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2,552 to 185. On the Nasdaq, 1,804 issues rose and 429 fell.

The S&P 500 index showed 26 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 80 new highs and three new lows.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Don Sebastian)

U.S. housing starts tumble, flooding in the South blamed

Roofers work on new homes at a residential construction site in the west side of the Las Vegas Valley in Las Vegas, Nevada

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August likely as bad weather disrupted building activity in the South, but a solid increase in permits for single-family dwellings suggested demand for housing remained intact.

Tuesday’s weak housing report came as officials from the Federal Reserve were due to gather for a two-day meeting to assess the economy and deliberate on monetary policy.

It joined a stream of recent soft economic data such as retail sales, nonfarm payrolls and industrial production, which, together with low inflation are expected to encourage the U.S. central bank to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Groundbreaking decreased 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.14 million units after two straight months of strong gains, the Commerce Department said.

Single-family housing starts in the South, which accounts for the bulk of home building, tumbled 13.1 percent to their lowest level since May 2015. Economists said flooding in Texas and Louisiana was probably behind the drop in starts last month.

“We believe that the slowdown in August starts likely owes to a temporary weather effect rather than a substantive shift in the underlying trend,” said Rob Martin, an economist at Barclays in New York. “Excluding the South, housing starts increased a robust 4.2 percent.”

Permits for future construction slipped 0.4 percent to a 1.14 million-unit rate last month as approvals for the volatile multi-family homes segment tumbled 7.2 percent to a 402,000 unit-rate. Permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, surged 3.7 percent to a 737,000-unit pace.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling to a 1.19 million-unit pace last month and building permits rising to a 1.17 million-unit rate.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data as investors awaited Wednesday’s outcome of the Fed’s meeting. The broader PHLX housing index, which includes builders, building products and mortgage companies, fell 0.76 percent.

STRONG HOUSING FUNDAMENTALS

Last month’s decline in starts was largely anticipated as groundbreaking activity has been running well ahead of permits approvals over the past several months, especially in the single-family housing segment.

The drop left starts just below their second-quarter average, suggesting little or no contribution from residential construction to economic growth in the third quarter.

Spending on home building was a small drag on output in the April-June period. Following the report, the Atlanta Fed trimmed its third-quarter gross domestic product estimate by one-tenth of a percentage point to a 2.9 percent annual rate. The economy grew at a 1.1 percent rate in the second quarter.

Demand for housing is being driven by a tightening labor market, which is lifting wages. A survey of homebuilders published on Monday showed confidence hitting an 11-month high in September, with builders bullish about current sales now and over the next six months, as well as prospective buyer traffic.

Housing market strength boosted Lennar Corp’s profits in the third quarter. Lennar, the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, said it sold 6,779 homes in the three months ended Aug. 31, up 7.3 percent from a year earlier, while its average sales price rose more than 3 percent.

“Conditions seem well aligned for strong new home building. Borrowing costs remain low, the inventory of homes for sale, both new and existing, are relatively low and failing to make meaningful progress,” said Kristin Reynolds, a U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

Groundbreaking on single-family homes dropped 6.0 percent to a 722,000-unit pace in August, the lowest level since last October. But with permits for the construction of single-family homes rising last month, single-family home building could rebound in the months ahead.

The single-family housing market is being supported by a dearth of previously owned homes available for sale.

Housing starts for the volatile multi-family segment fell 5.4 percent to a 420,000-unit pace. The multi-family segment of the market has been buoyed by strong demand for rental accommodation as some Americans shun homeownership in the aftermath of the housing market collapse.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Rising rents, healthcare costs boost consumer prices

A nurse prepares a bag of saline at Intermountain Healthcare's Utah Valley Regional Medical Center in Provo, Utah

y Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in August as rising rents and healthcare costs offset a drop in gasoline prices, pointing to a steady build-up of inflation that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

The Labor Department said on Friday its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month after being unchanged in July. In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 1.1 percent after advancing 0.8 percent in July.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.3 percent last month, the biggest increase since February, after gaining 0.1 percent in July.

Economists had forecast the CPI nudging up 0.1 percent last month and the core CPI gaining 0.2 percent. The core CPI increased 2.3 percent in the 12 months through August after rising 2.2 percent in the year through July.

U.S. Treasury prices pared gains and U.S. stock futures extended losses after the data. The dollar was stronger against a basket of currencies.

Last month’s uptick in inflation is likely to be welcomed by Fed officials when they meet next Tuesday and Wednesday to deliberate on monetary policy.

But against the backdrop of a raft of disappointing economic reports for August, including weak retail sales and industrial production, as well as a slowdown in job growth, the U.S. central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which has been stuck at 1.6 percent since March. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Monday she wanted to see stronger consumer spending data and signs of rising inflation before hiking rates.

The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate at the end of last year for the first time in nearly a decade, but has held it steady since amid concerns over persistently low inflation.

Financial markets have virtually priced out a rate increase next week and many economists expect the Fed to raise borrowing costs in December.

In August, gasoline prices fell 0.9 percent after sliding 4.7 percent in July. Food prices were unchanged, with the cost of food consumed at home declining for a fourth straight month.

Within the core CPI basket, housing and medical costs continued their upward march. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence rose 0.3 percent in August. It has risen by the same margin every month since April.

Medical care costs jumped 1.0 percent last month, the largest increase since February 1984, after advancing 0.5 percent in July. The cost of hospital services surged 1.7 percent, the biggest gain since October 2015. Prices for prescription medicine soared 1.3 percent.

Americans also paid more for motor vehicle insurance and apparel. Prices for tobacco also rose, but the cost of used cars and trucks fell for a sixth straight month.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Fed looks unlikely to hikes next week after Brainard warning

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard delivers remarks on "Coming of Age in the Great Recession"

By Jason Lange and Karen Pierog

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve should avoid removing support for the U.S. economy too quickly, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Monday in comments that solidified the view the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged next week.

Brainard said she wanted to see a stronger trend in U.S. consumer spending and evidence of rising inflation before the Fed raises rates, and that the United States still looked vulnerable to economic weakness abroad.

“Today’s new normal counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation,” Brainard, one of six permanent voters on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

She said the U.S. labor market was not yet at full strength, which means “the case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling.”

Brainard did not comment on the specific timing of future rate policy changes but she held firm in arguing for caution in what could be the last word from a Fed policymaker before the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 meeting.

Policymakers will go into the meeting divided, with some concerned current low rates will fuel a surge in inflation while another camp, which includes Brainard, has argued that the Fed should not rush to raise rates.

Many other policymakers think the U.S. job market is near full strength and Fed Chair Janet Yellen argued in July the case for rate increases has strengthened.

“I think circumstances call for a lively discussion next week,” said Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who will not be a voter at next week’s policy review but will participate in discussions.

Brainard said on Monday the labor market might still tighten further without putting pressure on inflation.

“The response of inflation to unexpected strength in demand will likely be modest and gradual, requiring a correspondingly moderate policy response,” she said.

U.S. stock prices rose following Brainard’s comments while the dollar weakened and yields on U.S. government debt fell. Traders trimmed their odds for a September rate hike to 15 percent from 24 percent on Friday, according to CME Group. Investors still saw just higher than 50/50 odds for a December hike.

The central bank last raised borrowing costs in December, ending seven years of near-zero rates. Policymakers signaled in June they could still hike rates twice in what remained of 2016.

Over the last year, Brainard has been one of the Fed’s most vocal defenders of low interest rate policy, arguing the United States is vulnerable to economic troubles in Asia and Europe.

She said on Monday the low interest rate policies across advanced economies could make the United States more vulnerable to spikes in the value of the dollar which could put downward pressure on inflation.

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump accused the Fed on Monday of keeping interest rates low because of political pressure from the Obama administration.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said “politics does not play a part” in the Fed’s deliberations and that current low U.S. inflation means there is no “huge urgency” to hike.

Inflation has been below the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target for the last four years.

Viewed as an influential voice of caution within the Fed’s Washington-based board of governors, Brainard was the U.S. Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs from 2010 to 2013.

(Reporting by Jason Lange in Chicago; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

Feds to raise rates this year, likely in December after election

A man walks past the Federal Reserve Bank in Washington, D.C., U.S.

By Sumanta Dey and Deepti Govind

(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in December, after the Nov. 8 presidential election, according to a Reuters poll that also predicted a pickup in economic growth but with still relatively subdued inflation.

That would be one full year after the last rate increase, something most Fed policymakers and private forecasters had not expected.

The poll forecast two more rises next year, taking the federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25 percent at the end of 2017.

A move in 2016 has been delayed, first on a sharp fall in global markets and then after Britain voted to leave the European Union.

But the Fed’s continued eagerness to tighten monetary policy underscores both the relative strength of the world’s largest economy as well as how tough the central bank is finding such a move.

Its peers from Europe to Asia are easing policy. New Zealand on Thursday cut interest rates to record lows, joining Australia, to stave off deflation and stem the rise in its currency. [ECILT/EZ] [ECILT/GB]

Of the 95 economists surveyed over the past week, 69 expect the federal funds target rate to rise to 0.50-0.75 percent by the fourth quarter from 0.25-0.50 percent currently. One forecast rates at 0.75-1.00 by year-end.

With a subdued inflation outlook, however, a slim majority of economists said a Fed rate hike this year would serve more as a confidence boost rather than a measure to quell pressure from rising prices.

After a weaker-than-expected 1.2 percent annualized pace of expansion in the second quarter, the U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent this quarter and slightly more than 2 percent in each quarter until the end of 2017, the poll found.

But respondents expected the core personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to average just 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter and stay below the central bank’s 2 percent target even at the end of 2017.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Justin Lederer said he expected one interest-rate move, in December.

“The election is one of the reasons why they can’t go sooner,” he said. “We don’t think the Fed will want to disrupt the election.”

The Fed’s November policy meeting is only days before the election. Economists gave a median probability of 58 percent of a move the next month, in December, up 8 percentage points from a poll last month.

Financial markets, however, are placing only a little more than one-in-three chance of a hike at the Dec. 14 meeting, according to data on the CME Group website.

A majority of economists said the probability of a September hike had risen after a report last week showed 255,000 new jobs were created in July and wage growth picked up pace, although that was still not their central view.

Respondents gave just a 25 percent chance of a hike for September, with only a handful of economists calling for one then.

A few banks said there would be no increase at all this year.

(Polling and analysis by Vartika Sahu; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)

Dollar drops as Fed rate rise prospects reassessed

A bank employee counts U.S. dollar notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand

By Anirban Nag

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as investors re-evaluated whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, which also sent the higher-yielding Australian dollar to its loftiest level since late April.

The U.S. dollar sagged against the euro and the yen after downbeat productivity data sapped some of the momentum it had gained from last week’s robust jobs report.

U.S. Treasury yields fell after the productivity report suggested the economy may not be growing as quickly as anticipated, prompting investors to cut long-term inflation expectations. According to CME’s Fedwatch, investors have trimmed chances of a rate rise in December 2016.

The dollar was down 0.6 percent at 101.28 yen, having gone as high as 102.66 on Monday on the strong non-farm payrolls data. The euro rose 0.5 percent to $1.1173, touching a 5-day high of $1.1184.

The dollar index dropped 0.6 percent to 95.577.

“The release of the third consecutive decline in quarterly U.S. productivity – the worst run since at least 1980 – does not bode well for the prospects for the dollar,” Morgan Stanley head of currency strategy, Hans Redeker, said.

The Australian dollar advanced to a more than three-month peak of $0.7729, buoyed this week by Australia’s relatively high yields and stronger investor appetite for risk.

“Part of the Australian dollar’s resilience is the lack of follow-through in pricing for a Fed hike in September, limiting the U.S. dollar’s gains,” analysts at Westpac said in a note. They recommended investors to buy the Australian dollar.

The U.S. dollar’s weakness also gave struggling sterling a lift. The pound was up 0.5 percent at $1.3061, recovering from $1.2956 struck on Tuesday, its lowest since July 11.

The pound took a knock on Tuesday after Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty said more monetary easing was likely to be needed if the UK’s economic decline worsened.

In European trade, attention briefly turned to the Norwegian crown. The crown scaled its highest against the euro in more than a month, after inflation rose more than expected in July, sapping expectations of interest rate cuts in the near term from the Norges Bank.

Data showed July core inflation rose to 3.7 percent from a year ago, beating expectations of a 3.1 percent rise. For the month, core inflation rose 0.7 percent.

The euro fell 0.8 percent to 9.2575 crowns, its lowest since July 5, and down from around 9.33 beforehand.

Earlier, Nordea Markets said the Norwegian policy rate had bottomed out at 0.50 percent and the central bank was no longer expected to cut rates in September.

(Editing by Toby Chopra)