Tag Archives: Institute for Supply management

U.S. services sector growth accelerates despite supply constraints

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A measure of U.S. services industry activity jumped to a record high in July, boosted by the shift in spending to services from goods, but businesses continued to pay higher prices for inputs because of supply constraints.

The Institute for Supply Management survey on Wednesday also showed a rebound in a gauge of services industry employment last month. That eased worries of a sharp slowdown in job growth, which had been stoked by the ADP Employment Report showing the smallest gain in private payrolls in five months in July.

The bounce back in the ISM services employment index followed a similar reading for the manufacturing sector. The economy is pushing ahead after fully recovering in the second quarter the sharp loss in output suffered during the very brief COVID-19 pandemic recession.

“For months, employers have struggled to find labor and employment numbers have been held down from the worker side rather than a lack of demand from companies,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. “These increases bode well for Friday’s employment report. ADP has not been very useful this year.”

The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing activity index raced to 64.1 last month, the highest reading since the series started in 2008, from 60.1 in June. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index climbing to 60.5.

All services industries reported growth, with anecdotes of pent-up demand as “companies begin to fully reopen and remote workers return to offices.”

Demand is rotating back to services as nearly half of the population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, allowing people to travel, frequent restaurants, visit casinos and attend sporting events among services-related activities that were curbed early in the pandemic in favor of goods.

Government data last week showed spending on services accelerated sharply in the second quarter, helping to lift the level of gross domestic product above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The ISM survey’s measure of new orders received by services businesses increased to a reading of 63.7 from 62.1 in June. Further gains are likely in the months ahead, with inventories lean and inventory sentiment among customers poor. Businesses depleted inventories at a rapid clip in the second quarter. Stocks at retailers are well below normal levels.

U.S. stocks were trading lower after a record close for the S&P 500 index. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.

PORTS CONGESTION

The strong demand is continuing to strain supply chains. The survey’s measure of supplier deliveries rose to 72.0 from a reading of 68.5 in June. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. Some businesses complained about the scarcity of appliances, laptops as well as rental cars. Others said heating, ventilation and air conditioning repairs also were impacted by longer than normal lead times for replacement units.

Wholesalers said congestion at the ports of Long Beach/Los Angeles and Seattle had increased lead time by 15 days. They were also facing additional delays at the Chicago rail yard.

With bottlenecks in the supply chain persisting, a measure of prices paid by services industries surged to 82.3, the highest reading in nearly 16 years, from 79.5 in June.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that inflation will moderate as supply constraints abate.

Services industries hired more workers in July, though labor shortages lingered, especially in the accommodation and food services sector. A measure of services industry employment rebounded to a reading of 53.8 from 49.3 in June.

That offset the ADP report showing private payrolls rose by 330,000 jobs last month, less than half of the 695,000 that had been anticipated by a Reuters survey of economists.

The slowdown in hiring last month was across all business sizes and industries. Leisure and hospitality payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs, below the 330,000 average in the second quarter. Economists said this suggested the early terminations of benefits in at least 20 states led by Republican governors was not forcing low-wage earners to return to work.

Factories added only 8,000 jobs in July. A global shortage of semiconductors is hampering production in the automobile sector. Hiring at construction sites stalled as expensive lumber and scarce building materials constrain homebuilding.

The ADP report, which is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics, was published ahead of the government’s more comprehensive, and closely watched employment report for July on Friday. It, however, has a poor record predicting the private payrolls count in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report because of methodology differences.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 750,000 jobs in July after rising 662,000 in June. With government employment expected to have increased by about 130,000, thanks to education-related hiring, that would lead to overall payrolls advancing by 880,000 jobs in July. The economy created 850,000 jobs in June.

July’s nonfarm payrolls estimate is highly uncertain, with labor market indicators mixed. Data from Homebase, a payroll scheduling and tracking company, showed its employees working index rising moderately in July compared to June.

The Conference Board’s labor market differential, derived from data on consumers’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, in July hit its highest level since 2000.

Education payrolls typically fall by at least 1 million in July, before adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, as schools and universities close for summer.

This year, however, many students are in summer school catching up after disruptions caused by the pandemic. Economists anticipate a small decline in education employment, which would boost the seasonally adjusted payrolls for the sector.

“We are maintaining our forecast for the BLS report to show 900,000 jobs added in July, with 550,000 coming from the private sector,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. manufacturing near two-year high; road ahead difficult

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected in October, with new orders jumping to their highest level in nearly 17 years amid a shift in spending toward goods like motor vehicles and food as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on.

The survey on Monday from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) was the last piece of major economic data before Tuesday’s bitterly contested presidential election. But the outlook for manufacturing is challenging.

While the coronavirus crisis has boosted demand for goods complementing the pandemic life, a resurgence in new cases across the country could lead to authorities re-imposing restrictions to slow the spread of the respiratory illness as winter approaches, which could crimp activity. Government money for businesses and workers hit by the pandemic, which boosted economic growth in the third quarter, has dried up.

“Manufacturing rebounded strongly with fewer restrictions on economic activity and stimulus efforts, but the path forward will be more difficult as the economy continues to cope with the pandemic,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The ISM said its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 59.3 last month. That was the highest since November 2018 and followed a reading of 55.4 in September.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 55.8 in October.

The jump in activity, however, likely overstates the health of the manufacturing sector. A report from the Federal Reserve last month showed output at factories dropping 0.3% in September and remaining 6.4% below its pre-pandemic level.

Manufacturers and suppliers said last month they “continue to operate in reconfigured factories” and with every month were “becoming more proficient at expanding output.”

Though sentiment among manufacturers remained upbeat, there were two positive comments for every cautious comment, a slight decrease compared to September.

The outcome of Tuesday’s vote is expected to lead to a brief period of uncertainty. President Donald Trump is trailing former Vice President and Democratic Party candidate, Joe Biden, in national opinion polls.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher following their steepest weekly loss. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

NEW ORDERS SURGE

Fifteen industries, including apparel, food, furniture and transportation equipment reported growth last month. Textile mills and printing reported a contraction.

Manufacturing’s continued recovery will likely keep the economy floating, with growth expected to slow sharply in the fourth quarter after a historic 33.1% annualized rate of expansion in the July-September period.

Growth last quarter, which followed a record 31.4% pace of contraction in the April-June quarter, was juiced up by more than $3 trillion in government pandemic relief. There is no deal in sight for another round of fiscal stimulus.

A separate report from the Commerce Department on Monday showed construction spending rose a moderate 0.3% in September, slowing after a 0.8% increase in August.

The coronavirus crisis has pulled spending away from services towards goods that complement the changed life-style. Spending on goods has surpassed its pre-pandemic level.

Makers of chemical products reported “business continues to be robust.” Food manufacturers said they had “increased production due to stores stocking up for the second wave of COVID-19.” Manufacturers of computer and electronic products said the coronavirus continued “to have an effect on supplier support and operations, more from a decreased labor perspective rather than unavailable material.”

The ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index surged to a reading of 67.9 last month, the highest reading since January 2004, from 60.2 in September. Customers’ inventories remained too low for the 49th straight month and order backlogs steadily increased, which bodes well for future production.

“On the upside, social distancing efforts, which have been a factor in consumers pivoting spending away from services and toward goods, is showing no signs of abating, especially as virus case counts are surging again,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“This shift to goods spending should continue to underpin orders, but is unlikely to go on with the same muster as it did earlier when an initial flurry of spending on manufactured goods aimed at setting up at-home offices and remote classrooms boosted goods spending.”

With orders booming, manufacturing employment expanded for the first time since July 2019. The ISM’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to a reading of 53.2 from 49.6 in September. That likely supported overall job growth in October.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 700,000 jobs last month after rising 661,000 in September. Employment growth has cooled from a record 4.781 million in June. About 11.5 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered.

The government is scheduled to publish October’s employment report on Friday.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani,; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)

U.S. new home sales hit seven-month high; services sector rebounds

FILE PHOTO: A real estate sign advertising a new home for sale is pictured in Vienna, Virginia, U.S. October 20, 2014. REUTERS/Larry Downing

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose to a seven-month high in December, but November’s outsized jump was revised lower, pointing to continued weakness in the housing market.

Other data on Tuesday showed an acceleration in growth in the vast services sector in February, powered by a surge in new orders. But hiring appeared to be slowing, with a measure of services industries employment dropping to a six-month low.

The moderation in the pace of hiring fits in with expectations of slower economic growth as the stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut and increased government spending ebbs. The economy’s outlook is also being clouded by slowing growth in China and Europe.

The Commerce Department said new home sales increased 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 units, the highest level since May 2018. November’s sales pace was revised down to 599,000 units from the previously reported 657,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 11.2 percent of housing market sales, falling 8.7 percent to a pace of 600,000 units in December.

New home sales are drawn from permits and tend to be volatile on a month-to-month basis. They fell 2.4 percent from a year ago. Single-family home sales rose 1.5 percent in 2018.

The release of the December report was delayed by a five-week partial shutdown of the federal government that ended on Jan. 25.

The housing market hit a soft patch last year amid higher mortgage rates, expensive lumber as well as land and labor shortages, which led to tight inventories and less affordable homes. Reports last month showed homebuilding dropping to more than a two-year trough in December and home resales in January hitting their lowest level since November 2015.

Though house price inflation has slowed and mortgage rates are hovering at 12-month lows, economists expect the housing market to remain weak for a while because of persistent land and labor shortages. Investment in homebuilding contracted 0.2 percent in 2018, the weakest performance since 2010.

The soft housing data added to weak December construction spending, retail sales, factory orders, exports and business spending plans on equipment in setting the economy on a slower growth path in the first quarter.

SERVICES INDUSTRIES HUMMING

Despite the anticipated first-quarter weakness, the economy’s fundamentals remain favorable. In a separate report on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing activity index increased 3.0 points to a reading of 59.7 last month.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. January’s drop in the services sector index was largely blamed on financial market volatility and the government shutdown.

The ISM’s new orders sub-index for the services sector surged 7.5 points to a reading of 65.2 last month, the highest level since August 2005. But the survey’s services industry employment measure fell 2.6 points to 55.2 in February, the weakest reading since June 2018.

U.S. Treasury yields jumped after the ISM report, while U.S. stocks pared losses. The U.S. dollar was trading slightly higher against a basket of currencies. The Commerce Department report showed new home sales in the South, which accounts for the bulk of transactions, increased 5.0 percent to a seven-month high in December.

Sales rose 1.4 percent in the West and jumped 44.8 percent in the Northeast. But they fell 15.3 percent in the Midwest to their lowest level since April 2016.

The median new house price fell 7.2 percent to $318,600 in December from a year ago. There were 344,000 new homes on the market in December, the most since December 2008 and up 3.0 percent from November. Supply is, however, just over half of what it was at the peak of the housing market boom in 2006.

At December’s sales pace it would take 6.6 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 6.7 months in November. Just under two-thirds of the houses sold last month were either under construction or yet to be built.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. factory activity races to 14-year high in August

A production operator checks a panel at the SolarWorld solar panel factory in Hillsboro, Oregon, U.S, January 15, 2018. Picture taken January 15, 2018 REUTERS/Natalie Behring

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated to more than a 14-year high in August, boosted by a surge in new orders, but growing concerns over rising raw material costs as a result of import tariffs could restrain further growth.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday its index of national factory activity jumped to 61.3 last month, the best reading since May 2004, from 58.1 in July. A reading above 50 indicates growth in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.

The ISM described demand as remaining “robust,” but cautioned that “the nation’s employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle.” According to the ISM, respondents to the survey were “again overwhelmingly concerned about tariff-related activity, including how reciprocal tariffs will impact company revenue and current manufacturing locations.”

President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policy has led to an escalating trade war with China and tit-for-tat import tariffs with other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

Trump has defended the duties on steel and aluminum imports and a range of Chinese goods as necessary to protect American industries from what he says is unfair foreign competition.

Economists have warned that the tariffs could disrupt supply chains, undercut business investment and slow the economy’s momentum.

The ISM’s new orders sub-index increased to a reading of 65.1 last month from 60.2 in July. Factories reported hiring more workers last month, with production increasing sharply.

The survey’s supplier deliveries index jumped to a reading of 64.5 last month, highlighting the rising bottlenecks in the supply chain, from 62.1 in July. It hit a 14-year high of 68.2 in June.

U.S. stocks were trading lower while yields of U.S. Treasuries were higher. The dollar <.DXY> was stronger against a basket of currencies.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING TEPID

In a separate report on Tuesday, the Commerce Department said construction spending barely rose in July as increases in homebuilding and investment in public projects were overshadowed by a sharp drop in private nonresidential outlays.

Construction spending edged up 0.1 percent. Data for June was revised up to show construction outlays declining 0.8 percent instead of the previously reported 1.1 percent drop.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending increasing 0.5 percent in July. Construction spending increased 5.8 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Spending on private residential projects rebounded 0.6 percent in July following two straight months of declines.

While homebuilding rose in July, the overall trend has slowed, with builders continuing to complain about rising material costs as well as persistent land and labor shortages. Residential investment contracted in the first half of the year.

Spending on private nonresidential structures, which includes manufacturing and power plants, dropped 1.0 percent in July. That was the biggest decline since August 2017 and followed a 0.1 percent gain in June.

Overall, spending on private construction projects slipped 0.1 percent in July after decreasing 0.5 percent in June.

Investment in public construction projects increased 0.7 percent after tumbling 1.7 percent in June. Spending on federal government construction projects rebounded 2.5 percent. That followed a 3.0 percent drop in June.

State and local government construction outlays advanced 0.6 percent in July after falling 1.6 percent in the prior month.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. factory activity jumps, construction spending unchanged

A man walks his dog past a mural depicting factory workers in the historic Pullman neighborhood in Chicago

By Lindsay Dunsmuir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. factory activity jumped in June suggesting economic growth in the second quarter gained some steam, while construction spending held steady in May.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its index of national factory activity rose to a reading of 57.8 last month from 54.9 in May.

A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for roughly 12 percent of the overall U.S. economy.

The ISM survey’s new orders sub-index rose to 63.5 in June from 59.5 the prior month. A measure of factory employment increased to a reading of 57.2 from 53.5 in May.

According to ISM, comments from those surveyed generally reflected expanding conditions, “with new orders, production, employment, backlog and exports all growing in June compared to May and with supplier deliveries and inventories struggling to keep up with the production pace.” Fifteen of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in June.

The dollar rose to a session high against a basket of currencies after the data, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rose to a more than eight-year high. U.S. stocks extended gains.

 

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MIXED

Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending unexpectedly remained flat in May but federal government outlays on construction projects were the highest in more than four years.

The Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending in May remained unchanged at $1.23 trillion. Spending in April was revised to show it declining 0.7 percent after a previously reported 1.4 percent fall.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending rising 0.3 percent in May. Construction spending increased 4.5 percent from a year ago.

Federal government construction spending jumped 6.4 percent in May to its highest monthly level since January 2013.

The May construction spending release included revisions to data back to January 2015, the Commerce Department said.

In May, private construction spending fell 0.6 percent, the biggest decline since October 2015, after declining 0.2 percent in April. Investment in private residential construction also declined 0.6 percent, the biggest fall since July 2014, after rising 0.5 percent the prior month.

Spending on private nonresidential structures fell 0.7 percent in May, the fifth straight monthly decline.

Investment in public construction projects rose 2.1 percent in May after dropping 2.7 percent in April.

Outlays on state and local government construction projects increased 1.7 percent in May after falling 2.7 percent in April.

 

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)