Tag Archives: Hurricane

Unusual Weather Event in the Western Atlantic

It has been 101 years since this last happened.  And it is “blowing the minds” of meteorologists. Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), commented on the lack of hurricanes west of 55 degrees longitude in the Atlantic basin so far this season. Blake said this marks the first time there have been no western Atlantic hurricanes through Sept. 22 since 1914.

At the anniversary of Hurricane Rita in 2005 the compared numbers from 10 years ago is astounding. In that year there were 31 Tropical Systems, 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes. While 2015 has had several named storms, there have been no hurricanes this year at all!  

Two factors working against hurricane development, wind shear and dry air, have been quite prevalent from the Gulf of Mexico into much of the Caribbean all summer long.

Hurricanes thrive off of rich, tropical moisture evaporating into the air from warm ocean water and cannot feed off of the dryer air.  Wind shear, or the change of wind direction and speed with height, creates a hostile environment for tropical systems, as it too disrupts the ability of clouds and thunderstorms to organize in a way that supports the formation or continuation of a hurricane.

El Niño can be partially to blame. This setup features warming of the Pacific Ocean and is generally associated with unfavorable wind patterns across the western Atlantic.

Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean warm and active atmospheric moisture has also been well above average in that area. The result has been nine hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, but zero in the adjacent western Atlantic.

With El Niño continuing and no signs of any major changes, the western Atlantic hurricane drought may continue for a while.

New Study Warns of “Grey Swan” Hurricane

A new study published in the journal Nature says that the United States could see a hurricane that dwarfs the hurricane that decimated New Orleans and the gulf coast a decade ago.

The report calls the storms “grey swan” hurricanes in a new term for weather researchers.  The term “black swan” has been in place to describe extremely severe hurricanes that are unpredictable and come on as a surprise to meteorologists.

A “grey swan,” the study says, is completely predictable.  And the study also says that three global cities are most likely to see the storms: Cairns, Australia; Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Tampa, Florida.

“When you do hundreds and hundreds of thousands of events, you’re going to see hurricanes that are unlike anything you’ve seen in history,” MIT’s Kerry Emanuel , a key theoretician behind the equations determining the “maximum potential intensity” of a hurricane, told the Washington Post.

The report says that because of the location of Tampa, near a continental shelf that makes the water much more shallow overall than on the eastern side of Florida, it provides the potential for higher storm surges from a massive storm.

“One can get much larger surges where the offshore waters are shallow, as is true along the west, but not the east coast of Florida. Also, surges can amplify by being funneled into bays,” Emanuel said.

One major hurricane researcher says despite the report’s ominous tone, it’s more important to focus on right now.

“It’s much more important to focus on what could happen this year or next than it is to worry about a mega storm of the future, ‘grey swan’ or otherwise,” said Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel. “Numerous cities in the U.S. and around the world are frighteningly vulnerable to the storms that Mother Nature can conjure up with the ingredients available today.”

Hurricane Fred Sets Records

Hurricane Fred became the second named hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic storm season but is going to be remembered for some unusual records.

The storm is the easternmost hurricane ever to form in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  It brought the very first hurricane warning for the Cape Verde Islands and is the first hurricane that can be captured in the region by weather satellites.

“According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verde Islands since 1892. We caution, however, that the database is less reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward),” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

While 10 hurricanes have been in the area of Cape Verde, Fred is the first that will hit Cape Verde while still a hurricane.  The peak winds for the storm were 85 m.p.h. on Monday morning.

The storm is expected to strengthen for a few days but will dissipate in the open ocean before reaching any other land mass.

Forecasters say that overall activity for this storm season is below average because of the strong El Nino.

Tropical Storm Erika Tracking to Hit Florida as Hurricane

While forecasters are calling Tropical Storm Erika “a very disorganized storm” they are also predicting it could reach hurricane status and strike Florida as early as Sunday.

“I think we’ll have a better idea of where Erika is going and what she is capable of, within the next 24 to 48 hours,because today, Erika has struggled mightily to get its act together,” said FOX 35 News Orlando Meteorologist Brooks Tomlin. “It’s a very disorganized tropical storm right now.”

The storm is expected to dump anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of rain on the Leeward Islands as it continues its western trek.  Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will also be hit by the current path of the storm.

Florida officials are beginning to prepare for the storm’s possible arrival.

“This is the point where you should start planning whether you’re going to evacuate, where you’re going to go, how you’re going to communicate,” Kimberly Prosser, the director of Brevard County Emergency Management, told FoxNews.

Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Ignacio is gaining strength and is also likely to turn into a hurricane.  The storm is modeled to pass by Hawaii, although there is a small chance the storm will turn to strike the main island early next week.

Tropical Storm Erika Forms in Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has confirmed the presence of a new named storm in the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Erika has sustained winds of 45 m.p.h. and as of noon eastern time was about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands with a westward path at 20 m.p.h.

A tropical storm watch has been posted throughout the region for islands that are in desperate need of rain because of a sustained drought.  However, the storm is expected to continue to gain strength and reach hurricane status.

Forecast models are showing extremely different paths for the storm, from dissipating before making significant landfall to becoming a huge Category 4 storm that would strike South Carolina.

Erika is the fifth named storm in the Atlantic during the 2015 storm season.  Danny was the only storm to reach hurricane status, peaking as a Category 3 storm.  Danny dissipated on Monday because of a dry air mass moving across the region.

The NHC said the Air Force’s Hurricane Hunters are going to make a mass through the storm and provide feedback on the storm’s intensity.

Tropical Storm Danny Expected to Reach Hurricane Status

Tropical Storm Danny, located far out over the Atlantic, is likely to become a hurricane.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) say the storm is maintaining winds of 50 m.p.h. and models are showing the storm strengthening into hurricane status within the next few days.

The storm’s track could take it into Puerto Rico.  If the storm continues to strengthen, it could strike Cuba as early as Wednesday.  The models say it’s too early to determine if the storm could impact the United States.

If the storm reaches hurricane status, it would be the first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season to reach that level.

The NHC said the storm is being driven west by a “subtropical ridge of high pressure” and that the conditions around the storm are beneficial to increasing strength.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 30th.

Major Hurricane Drought Reaches Record 117 Months

The continental United States has not been hit with a major hurricane in more than 117 months, a record according to the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s tracking of storms dates back to 1851.

A “major” hurricane is defined as a storm of Category 3 or higher.  The last major hurricane was Hurricane Wilma in 2005 which reached Category 5.

The scale does not mean smaller storms could not cause damage, but that major storms are most likely to cause catastrophic damage and significant loss of life.  The most recent storm to cause damage while not being considered a “major” hurricane was Hurricane Sandy, a category 1 storm that was downgraded by the time it made landfall in the northeastern United States.

The streak is not expected to end this Atlantic hurricane season as “El Nino” is especially hot and among the strongest in the last 50 years.  That warm current of air mixed with colder than normal Atlantic Ocean water decreases the possibility of major storms.

“Even if El Niño went away tomorrow, which it won’t do, we would still forecast a below normal season because the Atlantic is so cold,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University told the Miami Herald. “When you get that combination, it’s really lethal for storms.”

Category 4 Hurricane Dolores, currently raging in the Pacific Ocean, is so far off the coastline that forecasters do not believe it will make landfall in Mexico or the United States.

Hurricane Gonzalo Aiming For Great Britain

Hurricane Gonzalo, which reeked havoc on Bermuda last week, has continued to move through the Atlantic Ocean and is taking aim at Great Britain.

Great Britain is just over 3,400 miles away from Bermuda.

Gonzalo is expected to make landfall with 75 mile per hour winds and forecasters say it likely will not lose much strength when it heads inland.  Massive disruption to travel and public transportation.

“There will be strengthening winds and rain over Ireland in the middle of the evening as the storm comes in from the Atlantic,” forecaster Sean Penston said.  “It will reach north-western parts of Britain late in the evening, with gusts up to 45mph over north-western parts of Scotland by midnight, but these will increase to gusts up to 75mph during the night.”

The Met Office issued a “yellow warning.”

“Fallen leaves impeding drainage increases the risk of surface water affecting roads, while some damage to trees is possible, given that many are still in full leaf.”

Gonzalo caused widespread damage, blackouts and flooding when it hammered Bermuda last week.

Looting, Crime Rises In Wake of Hurricane Odile

Hurricane Odile, which slammed into Mexico’s Baja California as a major Category 4 hurricane, is opening the door for criminals and looters to ransack villages devastated by the storm.

Officials say that 135 people have been injured from the storm, and no one has been killed, but the major problem has been power outages and looting from stores left unprotected in the wake of evacuations.

Police say that looters have appeared to focus on electronic and higher end stores, stealing televisions, stereo equipment and other high event devices.  Grocery stores have also been cleaned out with everything taken from Coca-Cola to potato chips to pancake mix.

Over 240,000 residents of the region are without power after most of the utility poles in the region were snapped off by the storm.  The Federal Electricity Commission says that 92 percent of the people living in Baja California are without power.

Officials say that without power, it will be very hard to control the looting of vacated homes and businesses.

Hurricane Odile Pounds Baja California

A hurricane that rapidly gained strength before making landfall is pounding Mexico’s Baja California.

Residents and tourists have been taking shelter and hotels have opened conference rooms so people can find a safe place to ride out the storm.  Hurricane Odile made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane although it weakened to Category 3 shortly after landfall.

The National Hurricane Center said the storm made landfall around 9:45 p.m. near Cabo San Lucas with estimated sustained winds of 125 m.p.h.  Mexican authorities had forced evacuations of coastal areas.

Forecasters with the NHC say that 5 to 10 inches of rain is likely over the region during the course of the storm with isolated areas receiving as much as 15 inches.  Flooding is likely to cause significant damage as most of the region is very mountainous and landslides will mix with floodwaters.

At least 30,000 people are out of their homes.  Most of the region has no electricity or clean drinking water.