A new study published in the journal Nature says that the United States could see a hurricane that dwarfs the hurricane that decimated New Orleans and the gulf coast a decade ago.
The report calls the storms “grey swan” hurricanes in a new term for weather researchers. The term “black swan” has been in place to describe extremely severe hurricanes that are unpredictable and come on as a surprise to meteorologists.
A “grey swan,” the study says, is completely predictable. And the study also says that three global cities are most likely to see the storms: Cairns, Australia; Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Tampa, Florida.
“When you do hundreds and hundreds of thousands of events, you’re going to see hurricanes that are unlike anything you’ve seen in history,” MIT’s Kerry Emanuel , a key theoretician behind the equations determining the “maximum potential intensity” of a hurricane, told the Washington Post.
The report says that because of the location of Tampa, near a continental shelf that makes the water much more shallow overall than on the eastern side of Florida, it provides the potential for higher storm surges from a massive storm.
“One can get much larger surges where the offshore waters are shallow, as is true along the west, but not the east coast of Florida. Also, surges can amplify by being funneled into bays,” Emanuel said.
One major hurricane researcher says despite the report’s ominous tone, it’s more important to focus on right now.
“It’s much more important to focus on what could happen this year or next than it is to worry about a mega storm of the future, ‘grey swan’ or otherwise,” said Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel. “Numerous cities in the U.S. and around the world are frighteningly vulnerable to the storms that Mother Nature can conjure up with the ingredients available today.”
