Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve ready to raise Interest Rates again

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Federal Reserve Prepares More Big Rate Hikes Amid Risk That High Inflation Could ‘Become Entrenched’
  • With surging inflation showing no signs of abating, Fed policymakers plan to raise interest rates by either 50 or 75 basis points at the upcoming meeting in July.
  • While tighter monetary policy “could slow the pace of economic growth for a time,” it is “critical” to achieving long-term inflation goals, central bank officials agreed, pledging to take more aggressive action even if it means hurting economic growth.

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Federal Reserve raises interest by .75 percent, and more could be coming in days to come

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • BREAKING NEWS: Federal Reserve raises interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the biggest hike since 1994 in a bid to slow rapid inflation
  • Federal Reserve raised the interest rate to .75 per cent in an attempt to rein in the record high levels of inflation
  • Officials agreed to increase at their two-day meeting that wrapped Wednesday
  • It is the biggest hike since 1994
  • The move will increase its benchmark short-term rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, to between 1.5% and 1.75%
  • Will likely result in higher interest rates for car and home loans
  • ‘We’re strongly committed to bringing inflation back down. And we’re moving expeditiously to do so,’ Chairman Jerome Powell said
  • More interest rate hikes could follow in the days to come
  • Voters list inflation and economy as their top concerns

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Central banks to boost interest rates “A Real Possibility”

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Fed likely to boost interest rates by three-quarters of a point this week
  • Markets are beginning to anticipate an even faster pace of interest rate hikes, and Federal Reserve officials apparently are contemplating the possibility as well.
  • Fed policymakers are entertaining the idea of a 75-basis-point rate increase this week, according to CNBC’s Steve Liesman.
  • Bond yields pointed to the possibility of a more aggressive Fed as the yield on the 10-year Treasury shot up to 3.37%, while the 2-year yield, which mostly closely tracks Fed intentions, accelerated to 3.34%.
  • A 75 basis point move is “a real distinct possibility,” Liesman said.

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Fed officials say high inflation weighing on consumers and needs to be controlled

By Jonnelle Marte

(Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials said on Tuesday they are vigilant of the ways that higher inflation can affect U.S. households and dampen consumer sentiment and want to get it under control.

While wages are rising for some workers, consumer sentiment is down to a “level that you might associate with a recession,” said Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, citing the consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan.

“I think that’s very much because of the impact that prices have on people,” including those who spend a significant part of their pay on food and gas, Barkin said during a virtual panel organized by the Fed.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank aims for low inflation because it doesn’t want households to stress about rising prices. “That’s one of the reasons why, you know, I think you’ve heard from all of us concerns about the higher levels of inflation that we’ve seen recently and the need to get that back under control,” Bostic said.

The Fed this month began to reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the first step in scaling back the support offered to the U.S. economy during the pandemic. Fed officials would like to wind down the bond purchases before they raise interest rates.

Some policymakers say the Fed should be prepared to act in case inflation lasts longer than expected. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking earlier in the day, said the Fed should “tack in a more hawkish direction” over its next couple of meetings to be prepared in case inflation does not ease.

“If inflation happens to go away we are in great shape for that. If inflation doesn’t go away as quickly as many are currently anticipating it is going to be up to the (Federal Open Market Committee) to keep inflation under control,” Bullard said on Bloomberg Television.

(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte and Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Fed report shows wage pressures amid ‘modest to moderate’ economic growth

By Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir

(Reuters) -U.S. employers reported significant increases in prices and wages even as economic growth decelerated to a “modest to moderate” pace in September and early October, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in its latest compendium of reports about the economy.

“Outlooks for near-term economic activity remained positive, overall, but some Districts noted increased uncertainty and more cautious optimism than in previous months,” according to the summary of information from the Fed’s 12 regional districts, prepared as part of a broad range of briefings ahead of policymakers’ Nov. 2-3 meeting.

Employment increased, though labor growth was dampened by a low supply of workers, despite wage increases designed to attract new hires and keep existing employees, the report said.

Most districts reported “significantly elevated prices,” with some expecting prices to stay high or increase further, and others expecting inflation to moderate. “Many firms raised selling prices indicating a greater ability to pass along cost increases to customers amid strong demand,” the Fed districts reported.

The report will do little to change the immediate course of Fed policy, with central bankers poised to begin reducing their $120 billion in monthly bond purchases as soon as next month after what most see as substantial improvement in the labor market since the end of last year.

But it could help shade discussions of what the Fed ought to do next, particularly as inflation has been running well above the Fed’s 2% target for the last several months.

Policymakers are keenly focused on the drivers of those price rises and whether they will, as most expect, recede next year.

If current high inflation persists, the Fed may need to start raising rates sooner than widely assumed, several policymakers have said recently.

Wednesday’s report showed companies in most districts were feeling price and wage pressures from supply chain bottlenecks as well as from labor constraints.

The Philadelphia Fed reported on one firm that was offering as much as “$90,000 for a second-year CPA position that might have commanded $65,000 before the pandemic.”

The Cleveland Fed said nearly 60% of its contacts reported raising wages recently, but with supply chains slowing production of goods, even that appeared not to be enough. One auto dealer, the district reported, noted that “supply chain disruptions were causing his labor challenges, adding, ‘nothing to sell makes it hard to keep employees.'”

A furniture retailer told the Boston Fed it had raised prices more than 30% since February 2021 to reflect increased shipping and materials costs.

The San Francisco Fed reported competition for talent and workers’ willingness to switch jobs as driving up wages, with one contact from the banking sector calling it “a wage war.”

Meanwhile, the increase in available workers that many employers expected to see as pandemic unemployment benefits expired and schools came back into session failed to materialize in many districts, the report showed.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Full Federal Reserve policy statement Sept 22, 2021

(Reuters) – Following is the full statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee on Sept. 22, 2021:

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress in vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Dollar falls as U.S. consumer price rises temper in July, data show

By John McCrank

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar fell on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data showed consumer price increases eased in July, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back the monthly bond purchases that are part of its toolbox to support the economic recovery.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.17% at 92.915 at 3:05 p.m. ET (1905 GMT).

Earlier, the U.S. currency hit 93.195, its highest since April 1, and not far off of its 2021 high of 93.439, but it sold off after data showed the consumer price index rose 0.5% last month after climbing 0.9% in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% after increasing 0.9% in June.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast overall CPI would rise 0.5% and core CPI 0.4%.

While prices are still rising, the Fed has said it expects inflationary pressures to moderate over time as supply catches up with demand following months of COVID-19 lockdowns.

“The CPI report was enough to cause a bit of profit taking for the U.S. dollar, but at the end of the day, it’s not a game changer for the Fed,” said Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management. “They’re still going to be announcing taper,” likely within the next six weeks.

The greenback had enjoyed a lift from last week’s better-than-expected U.S. jobs data, as well as from remarks by Fed officials about tapering bond purchases and, eventually, raising rates, sooner than policymakers elsewhere.

Looking forward, the Fed will depend on data when it comes to the timing of the dialing back of its asset purchases, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“It’s all going to be all about next month’s employment report and if that does not impress, tapering, as far September goes, might even get pushed out towards the end of the year,” he said.

In Europe, investor sentiment has declined, with a survey showing a third straight month of deterioration in Germany as rising global COVID-19 cases keep markets on edge.

“Investors have to take on board the possibility of news on Fed tapering at a time when COVID is still very apparent in various parts of the world,” said Rabobank analyst Jane Foley.

“The consequence of this is likely to be a firmer dollar,” she added, especially if the euro breaches its 2021 low.

The euro gained 0.16% against the greenback, to 1.17395, following six straight sessions of losses and having fallen as low as 1.1706 in early deals in Europe, near the year’s low of $1.1704.

Sterling gained 0.2% to 1.38645 against the dollar, pulling back from a two-week low.

The yen was up 0.12% at 110.445, after dropping for five consecutive sessions against the dollar.

South Korea reported a record number of COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, while outbreaks in China, Southeast Asia and Australia grow steadily.

The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar , seen as riskier currencies, rose after the U.S. CPI report, last up 0.33% and 0.5% respectively.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin touched $46,787.60, its highest since May 17. Bitcoin was last up 1.5% at $46,304.54, while ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, was up 2.7% at $3,226.18.

(Reporting by John McCrank in New York; additional reporting by Ritvik Carvalho in London; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Marguerita Choy)

Blip or bad moon rising? Fed meets amid COVID-19 surge, inflation jitters

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will conclude its latest policy meeting on Wednesday weighing the risks of a COVID-19 resurgence in the United States and a potentially slower economic recovery against a developing inflation threat that had been its main focus.

Fed officials are expected to continue their debate over when to wean the economy from the measures put in place more than a year ago to fight the pandemic’s economic aftershock, and in particular to discuss when to reduce the $120 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities the U.S. central bank is buying each month to hold down long-term interest rates.

But that discussion, begun in earnest just six weeks ago when U.S. cases of COVID-19 were falling under the influence of vaccinations, has been complicated by the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant of the virus, the renewal of crisis conditions in some hospitals, and reinstated mask mandates in some cities.

Though focused mostly on the 40% of the adult U.S. population that remains unvaccinated, the current outbreak nevertheless raises fresh tensions for the Fed over whether planning to fend off inflation should be the top concern at a time when the health crisis may yet curb an otherwise ebullient recovery.

“Sadly, (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell will have to acknowledge the downside risks that are beginning to emerge,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, wrote ahead of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting this week. “The question mark is how spread of the Delta variant affects the return to work and whether it dampens some of the demand for services” that had begun to lead the recovery and pull millions of sidelined people back into jobs.

The economy still is 6.8 million jobs short of where it was before the pandemic’s onset in early 2020, and Powell has said the country remains “a ways off” from the progress he wants to see before changing any of the Fed’s efforts at encouraging job growth. Powell will hold a news conference following the 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) release of the Fed’s latest policy statement.

INFECTIONS AND INFLATION

The Fed remains in full crisis-fighting mode more than 16 months into a national state of emergency, continuing to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate near zero and buying bonds at a pace some policymakers have begun to question openly as too aggressive. Inflation is taking off, they note, and housing prices have hit record highs thanks in part to the relatively low interest rates on home mortgages.

To avoid bigger problems down the road the Fed should pull back “sooner rather than later,” Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said after the June 15-16 policy meeting. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has voiced similar sentiments – only to see Missouri’s second-biggest city reimpose an indoor mask mandate amid a rapid coronavirus outbreak in the state.

Nationally, daily infections have risen about fourfold since the Fed met in June, making what had seemed a straightforward process – a turn from fighting recession to managing the rising prices and other risks of a strong recovery – into a more nuanced debate over how to continue planning for the pandemic’s end while also acknowledging its persistence.

A new Reuters poll showed 160 of 202 economists, or about 80%, said the spread of new coronavirus variants was the biggest risk to the recovery.

The latest surge in cases has not shown up clearly yet in the economic data. Consumer confidence remains high and people are still boarding planes and heading to restaurants.

Still, Bank of America analysts recently drew a cautionary tale from Michigan, where a wave of infections in February appeared to dent hiring and consumer spending.

“So far we have seen little evidence of the Delta variant significantly affecting economic activity or spending on services,” those analysts wrote. But “we have good reason to be concerned about the current outbreak and what it means.”

TAPER TALK CONTINUES

Amid those risks, there’s also no guarantee that inflation will fade on a timetable within the Fed’s comfort zone – possibly leaving the central caught between slower growth and rising prices, the worst of both worlds.

A new Fed framework ostensibly allows inflation to run above the central bank’s formal 2% target to give the economy more room to generate jobs.

That approach, however, was designed after a decade of low inflation, and on an expectation the chief challenge would be raising the weak pace of price increases. Yet as of May, with the world economy beset by supply-chain problems and other challenges tied to the economic reopening, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was nearly twice the target rate.

If that trend continues “they would have to say at some point ‘we do have to remove accommodation’ … and they could not wait for maximum employment” before raising interest rates, as their current policy pledges to do, said Bill English, a Yale School of Management professor and former head of the Fed’s monetary affairs division.

For that reason alone, Fed planning over how to reduce its bond-buying program is expected to continue. The central bank wants the monthly purchases to end before considering an interest rate increase, and the process of tapering them could take perhaps a year to complete – a lengthy runway if inflation persists and rate increases become more urgent.

Officials have also promised ample advance notice before actually making any change, adding more months to the timetable.

So far, officials are not foreclosing any option. Market analysts say they expect the Fed to clarify its plans for ending the bond-buying in the fall, and perhaps begin reducing purchases early next year.

That presumes U.S. hiring continues, and that travel, dining out, and other close-contact social activities also recover.

In an update to its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its forecast for U.S. growth in 2021 to a torrid 7%. But in a related blog, Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, cautioned central banks not to be distracted into “prematurely tightening policies” by a rise in inflation that was expected to fade on its own.

“The recovery is not assured until the pandemic is beaten back globally,” she wrote.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

Fed says shortages of materials, hiring problems holding back recovery

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Shortages of materials and “difficulties in hiring” are holding back the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and have driven a “transitory” bout of inflation, the Federal Reserve said on Friday.

“Progress on vaccinations has led to a reopening of the economy and strong economic growth,” the U.S. central bank said in its semiannual report to Congress on the state of the economy. However, “shortages of material inputs and difficulties in hiring have held down activity in a number of industries.”

The report will be the subject of hearings in Congress next week, including testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the outlook for the economy, inflation, and the transition of monetary policy as the impact of the pandemic recedes.

The report released by the Fed on Friday is largely backward-looking, but it documents the central bank’s view that the recovery remains on track as firms and families navigate a complicated economic reopening.

Prices have risen faster than expected, for example, and while the supply bottlenecks and other factors driving the price hikes are expected to ease over time, “upside risks to the inflation outlook in the near term have increased,” the Fed said.

Hiring has also slowed for an unexpected reason: Companies want to bring on more employees, but not enough workers are ready to take those jobs as they cope with ongoing health and family concerns and can rely on continued federal unemployment benefits to help pay the bills.

“Many of these factors should have a diminishing effect on participation in the coming months,” the Fed said, though the speed and strength of that labor market recovery also remains uncertain.

The central bank, however, said available data suggest “a further robust increase in demand” occurred from April through June.

“Against a backdrop of elevated household savings, accommodative financial conditions, ongoing fiscal support, and the reopening of the economy, the strength in household spending has persisted,” while the financial system remains “resilient,” the Fed said.

(Reporting by Howard SchneiderEditing by Paul Simao)

Analysis – A fine mess: Weak inflation prompts a global central bank reset

By Howard Schneider and Leika Kihara

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – It is an article of faith among central bankers that the decisions they make about how much money to create and what interest rate to charge for it will determine the rate of inflation – at least over moderate lengths of time.

For more than a decade that belief has been undermined by inflation that has remained weak despite trillions of dollars pumped into the world’s biggest economies through quantitative easing programs and ultra-low interest rates.

That prompted the top central banks to review how they do business, and on Thursday the European Central Bank joined the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan in pursuing an ambitious reset in hopes of reasserting control.

The ECB’s new framework, in contemplating the occasional “transitory period” when inflation exceeds its formal 2% target in hopes of ensuring that target is met over time, is a step short of the more explicit promise the U.S. central bank made last year to encourage periods of high inflation to offset years when price increases were too weak.

But their shared diagnosis paints a similarly troubling picture of a developed world seemingly set in a rut of slow economic growth, low productivity, aging populations, and perennially weak inflation that may be difficult to coax higher.

“The euro area economy and the global economy have been undergoing profound structural changes,” the ECB said in announcing its new framework, echoing language used by Fed officials in announcing their new strategy last year. “Declining trend growth, which can be linked to slower productivity growth and demographic factors, and the legacy of the global financial crisis have driven down equilibrium real interest rates.”

That, in turn, has given the ECB less room to use interest rate policy alone to help boost economic activity, and forced it, like the Fed, to resort more often to other measures – bond-buying for example – when economic conditions weaken.

The BOJ led the way down that path early this century.

The aims of the new U.S. and European inflation strategies, and those pursued so far unsuccessfully in Japan, are the same: Get the pace of price increases high enough so inflation-adjusted interest rates can also increase, giving the central banks room to use rate cuts as their main policy tool in times of stress.

CHASING AN AVERAGE

The concept of using inflation averaging has been slow to evolve. All three central banks at first adopted simple inflation targets of 2%, trusting that they understood inflation dynamics well enough to hit that level and stay there.

They didn’t.

Over time, they realized that between technology, globalization, demographics and other factors, inflation had become difficult to budge. Even more problematic, the continued “misses” against a well-publicized target risked resetting public expectations that inflation would remain weak.

Research by current and former Fed officials raised the stakes. They found that in a situation where equilibrium interest rates were low and central banks were repeatedly forced to cut their policy rates to near zero, inflation expectations would fall – permanently, a damaging outcome that would cement weak prices, wages, and growth as the norm.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, whose earlier academic research affirmed the advantages of simple inflation targeting, detailed this past January how subsequent studies by New York Fed President John Williams and others concluded more aggressive approaches were needed when interest rates were expected to keep collapsing to zero.

Interest rates stuck near zero “tend to deliver inflation expectations that, in each business cycle, become anchored at a level below the target,” Clarida said in a presentation to Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. “It can open up the risk of the downward spiral in both actual and expected inflation that has been observed in some other major economies.”

‘HISTORIC SHIFT’

The Fed’s new policy has been in place for just over 10 months. Its experience shows the challenges the ECB now faces.

The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic reopening have complicated the inflation outlook, with supply bottlenecks driving up prices more than – and perhaps for longer than – anticipated and a labor squeeze starting to drive up workers’ pay.

That has led to some new hawkish voices inside the Fed and hints at faster interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank despite its stated promise to let inflation run above target “for some time.”

With the Fed yet to prove its new design in practice, bond markets have noticed.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, far from anticipating higher inflation and growth, has been falling, and on Thursday hit 1.25%, the lowest level since mid-February and a drop of nearly half a percentage point from mid-May.

As with the Fed, the ECB will have to translate its new strategy into policies that work.

The new strategy marks “a historic shift for the ECB,” by acknowledging inflation may need to exceed 2% at some point, wrote Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist for Capital Economics. But it “will not make it easy for the ECB to escape from the grips of low inflation.”

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)