Tag Archives: El Nino

New Kind of Troubles for Drought Ravaged California

California is sinking because of the four year drought that has farmers digging deeper and deep down in order to find groundwater for their crops, resulting in a higher risk of flooding,

Nearly half of America’s fruits, vegetables and nuts are produced in California. As farmers dig deeper down to find water, the land gradually starts to cave in, an effect scientists refer to as subsidence. Some parts of California are settling lower at a rate of two inches a month

According to Michelle Sneed of the United States Geological Survey, the area being permanently affected by subsidence is enormous, stretching about 1,200 square miles, roughly the size of the state of Rhode Island.Because of this sinking  problem, when rains eventually do come the flooding will destroy the crops while also washing away more of the land.

Sinking land is not the only problem faced by California farmers.

Anger is building in central California at state and federal agencies, who are being blocked by environmentalists from pumping water from rivers onto their arid lands, farmers blame both regulations and the agencies and activists who go to court to enforce them.

“These are communities who rely almost solely upon agricultural production or agri-business activities,” Gayle Holman, spokeswoman for the nation’s largest agricultural water supplier, the Westlands Water District, told FoxNews.com. “If we continue down this path, we will most likely see our food production turn to foreign soil. We could lose the economic engine that agriculture brings to our nation.”

California continues to pray for rain and in the hopes that the forecasted El Nino this winter will offer relief, although many are concerned that too much rain could be just as much of a disaster as this historic drought.  

Current El Nino Already Second Strongest Ever Recorded for August

Federal meteorologists say the current El Nino is already the second strongest ever recorded for this time of year.

The officials with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say it could be one of the “most potent weather changers” in the last 65 years.

“There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016,” the NOAA said in a statement.

However, one NOAA official is warning that it might not bring the rain needed to end the drought in California and other western states.

“A big El Nino guarantees nothing,” said Mike Halper, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At this point there’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day.”

El Nino, created when the water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal, usually brings large amounts of winter rain to California and snow to the Rocky Mountain range.

California’s state climatologist, Michael Anderson, told the New York Times that California would need one and half times the normal amount of rainfall to get out of their drought conditions and he found that unlikely to take place.

“The one important element is that El Niño events are associated with large variability of outcome,” he said. And while people tend to remember years with powerful El Niño effects, he said, “People don’t associate as strongly the years when an El Niño event didn’t lead to a big outcome.”

El Nino Could Be Strongest In 50 Years

Meteorologists say that El Nino could be one of the strongest in the last half century and could bring significant amounts of rainfall to California.

The forecasters say the storms might not break the drought that has gripped the Golden State.

“Current rain deficits are way too large,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno to Fox News. “Even if California receives the rain that fell in 1997-98, it will not come close to ending the long-term drought.”

California currently has 71 percent of the state in “extreme to exceptional drought” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The forecasters at AccuWeather say that the heavy rains could be problems for California.

“A strong El Niño could be good news for the extreme drought in California,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. “Unfortunately, a sudden turn to a stormy winter could also result in dangerous mudslides and flash flooding for the state.”

However, it’s not just California officials and forecasters that are concerned about El Nino.  Texas officials say the change to El Nino could bring significant flooding to the Lone Star State.

“The latest global model shows that in August, we’re dry in the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast, but wet in the Four Corners with the monsoon kicking,” Paul Pastelok, chief long-range forecaster for AccuWeather said to the Dallas Morning News. “Then you look at September, and the upper high breaks down. The Four Corners region is still wet, but some of that moisture starts to leak out. And when we get to October, the model has northern Texas with moderately above-normal rainfall.”

“After that, we’ll see a bull’s-eye for precipitation just east of Dallas into Louisiana.”

Freak Rainstorm Washes Away California Highway Bridge

The California Highway Patrol (CHP) confirmed that heavy rains in a remote desert area of California has washed away an elevated part of Interstate 10 including a highway.

The CHP told the Los Angeles Times that 30 feet of the eastbound highway “is washed away and bridge is gone.”

The highway, the most direct route between Los Angeles and Phoenix, averages more than 20,000 cars a day.  Now the vehicles will have to travel hundreds of miles out of the way Interstate 8 or Interstate 40.

Forecasters say the storm was a foreshadowing of what could be striking California later this year with a strong El Nino season.  Tropical Storm Dolores, which roared far off the Mexican and California coasts, allowed for muggy and rainy weather to reach an area decimated by crippling drought.

“Even though Dolores is a pretty good wake-up call for us, we should start preparing for late August or early September,” Stuart Seto, an National Weather Service specialist, said to the Los Angeles Times.

The storms that blew through Southern California brought flash flooding in San Bernardino and Riverside counties.  The storms brought dangerous lightning, hail and high surf to the region.

The storm was so rare for this time of the year that the Anaheim Angels baseball team had a game against the Boston Red Sox rained out…the first rainout for the team in 20 years and 1,609 consecutive home games.

Major Hurricane Drought Reaches Record 117 Months

The continental United States has not been hit with a major hurricane in more than 117 months, a record according to the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s tracking of storms dates back to 1851.

A “major” hurricane is defined as a storm of Category 3 or higher.  The last major hurricane was Hurricane Wilma in 2005 which reached Category 5.

The scale does not mean smaller storms could not cause damage, but that major storms are most likely to cause catastrophic damage and significant loss of life.  The most recent storm to cause damage while not being considered a “major” hurricane was Hurricane Sandy, a category 1 storm that was downgraded by the time it made landfall in the northeastern United States.

The streak is not expected to end this Atlantic hurricane season as “El Nino” is especially hot and among the strongest in the last 50 years.  That warm current of air mixed with colder than normal Atlantic Ocean water decreases the possibility of major storms.

“Even if El Niño went away tomorrow, which it won’t do, we would still forecast a below normal season because the Atlantic is so cold,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University told the Miami Herald. “When you get that combination, it’s really lethal for storms.”

Category 4 Hurricane Dolores, currently raging in the Pacific Ocean, is so far off the coastline that forecasters do not believe it will make landfall in Mexico or the United States.

Substantial El Nino Predicted

Scientists say that the El Nino effect is under way in the tropical Pacific.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says a “substantial” El Nino event could take place before the end of the year.  Forecasters say that the El Nino is in early stages but the potential for extreme weather is real.

U.S. scientists initially said that El Nino had arrived but characterized it as “weak.”  Australian officials countered their U.S. colleagues’ claims.

“This is a proper El Nino effect, it’s not a weak one,” David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, told reporters. He said that El Nino could bring much lower than normal rainfall and enhance the country’s drought conditions.

“You know, there’s always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we’d suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event.”

After the Australian model was released, U.S. forecasters on Thursday revised their statements and said that El Nino could bring much needed rain to California.

“We’ve seen continued evolution toward a stronger event,” NOAA official Mike Halpert told TIME. “Last month we were calling it weak, now we’re calling it borderline weak to moderate.”

“Stronger El Niños interrupt tropical rainfalls. That rain fall shifts and Indonesia and Austrailia become drier than average,” explained Halpert. “They’re not looking forward to El Niño shutting the tap off.”