COVID-19 infection gives some immunity, but virus can still be spread, study finds

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) – People who have had COVID-19 are highly likely to have immunity to it for at least five months, but there is evidence that those with antibodies may still be able to carry and spread the virus, a study of British healthcare workers has found.

Preliminary findings by scientists at Public Health England (PHE) showed that reinfections in people who have COVID-19 antibodies from a past infection are rare – with only 44 cases found among 6,614 previously infected people in the study.

But experts cautioned that the findings mean people who contracted the disease in the first wave of the pandemic in the early months of 2020 may now be vulnerable to catching it again.

They also warned that people with so-called natural immunity – acquired through having had the infection – may still be able carry the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in their nose and throat and could unwittingly pass it on.

“We now know that most of those who have had the virus, and developed antibodies, are protected from reinfection, but this is not total and we do not yet know how long protection lasts,” said Susan Hopkins, senior medical adviser at PHE and co-leader of the study, whose findings were published on Thursday.

“This means even if you believe you already had the disease and are protected, you can be reassured it is highly unlikely you will develop severe infections. But there is still a risk you could acquire an infection and transmit (it) to others.”

MAJOR IMPLICATIONS

Experts not directly involved in the research, which is known as the SIREN study, urged people to note its key findings.

“These data reinforce the message that, for the time being, everyone is a potential source of infection for others and should behave accordingly,” said Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious disease at Edinburgh University.

Simon Clarke, an associate professor in cellular microbiology at Reading University, said the study “has major implications for how we can get out of the current crisis”.

“This means that the vast majority of the population will either need to have natural immunity or have been immunized for us to fully lift restrictions on our lives, unless we are prepared to see many more people being infected and dying from COVID-19,” he said.

PHE said in a statement that the study had not been able to explore antibody or other immune responses to the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out in Britain. Vaccine effects would be studied as part of SIREN later this year, it said.

The SIREN study involves tens of thousands of healthcare workers in Britain who have been tested regularly since June for new COVID-19 infections as well as for the presence of antibodies.

Between June 18 and Nov. 24, scientists found 44 potential reinfections – two “probable” and 42 “possible” – among 6,614 participants who had tested positive for antibodies. This represents an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, they said.

The researchers said they would continue to follow the participants to see if this natural immunity might last longer than five months in some. But they said early evidence from the next stage of the study suggested some people with immunity could still carry high levels of virus.

(Reporting by Kate Kelland; Editing by Mark Heinrich, Robert Birsel)

COVID-19, renewed benefits boost U.S. weekly jobless claims

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits surged last week, confirming a weakening in labor market conditions as a worsening COVID-19 pandemic disrupts operations at restaurants and other businesses.

The larger-than-expected increase in weekly unemployment claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday was seen by some economists as driven by the recent renewal of supplemental jobless benefits, but nonetheless raised the risk of further job losses in January after nonfarm payrolls slumped in December for the first time in eight months.

“The economy clearly needs additional support from Washington because right now rising jobless claims tells us the labor market recovery has stalled and the direction is full-tilt down,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 181,000 to a seasonally adjusted 965,000 for the week ended Jan. 9, the highest since late August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 795,000 applications in the latest week.

Unadjusted claims shot up 231,335 to 1.151 million last week. Economists prefer the unadjusted number because of earlier difficulties adjusting the claims data for seasonal fluctuations due to the economic shock caused by the pandemic. Including a government-funded program for the self-employed, gig workers and others who do not qualify for the regular state unemployment programs 1.4 million people filed claims last week.

U.S. stocks opened higher as investors awaited details of Biden’s rescue plan. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.

STRICTER MEASURES

The surge in claims last week also likely reflected reapplications for benefits following the government’s renewal of a $300 unemployment supplement until March 14 as part of the latest stimulus package. Government-funded programs for the self-employed, gig workers and others who do not qualify for the state unemployment programs as well as those who have exhausted their benefits were also extended.

“Not all individuals eligible for unemployment assistance actually claim benefits, and the supplementary payments add an incentive to file for benefits,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

Authorities in many states have banned indoor dining to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The economy shed jobs in December for the first time in eight months.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report of anecdotal information on business activity collected from contacts nationwide in early January showed on Wednesday that “contacts in the leisure and hospitality sectors reported renewed employment cuts due to stricter containment measures.”

The central bank also noted that the resurgence in the coronavirus was causing staff shortages in the manufacturing, construction and transportations sectors. The virus has infected more than 22.5 million people in the United States and killed over 376,188, the most of any country.

Though jobless claims have dropped from a record 6.867 million in March, they remain above their 665,000 peak during the 2007-09 Great Recession. Economists say it could take several years for the labor market to recover from the pandemic.

The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 199,000 to 5.271 million during the week ending Jan. 2. At least 18.4 million were on unemployment benefits on all programs in late December.

Labor market stress could curb inflation amid signs of rising price pressures. In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said import prices jumped 0.9% in December after rising 0.2% in November. Import prices were boosted by higher prices for energy products and recent dollar weakness.

Economists had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, accelerating 0.7% in December. In the 12 months through December, import prices slipped 0.3% after dropping 1.0% in November.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)

Record daily German COVID deaths spark Merkel ‘mega-lockdown’ plan: Bild

By Andreas Rinke and Caroline Copley

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany recorded a new record number of deaths from the coronavirus on Thursday, prompting calls for an even tighter lockdown after the country emerged relatively unscathed in 2020.

Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted a “mega-lockdown,” mass-selling newspaper Bild reported, shutting down the country almost completely for fear of fast-spreading variant of the virus first detected in Britain.

She was considering measures including shutting down both local and long-distance public transport, though such steps had not yet been decided, Bild reported.

While Germany’s total deaths per capita since the pandemic began remain far lower than the United States, its daily per capita mortality since mid-December has often exceeded that of the United States.

Germany’s daily death toll currently equates to about 15 deaths per million people, versus a 13 U.S. deaths per million.

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 25,164 new coronavirus cases and 1,244 fatalities, bringing Germany’s total death toll since the start of the pandemic to 43,881.

Germany initially managed the pandemic better than its neighbors with a strict lockdown last spring, but it has seen a sharp rise in cases and deaths in recent months, with the RKI saying people were not taking the virus seriously enough.

RKI president Lothar Wieler said on Thursday restrictions were not being implemented as consistently as they were during the first wave and said more people should work from home, adding that the current lockdown needed to be tightened further.

Germany introduced a partial lockdown in November that kept shops and schools open, but it tightened the rules in mid-December, closing non-essential stores, and children have not returned to classrooms since the Christmas holidays.

Hospitals in 10 out of Germany’s 16 states were facing bottlenecks as 85% of intensive care unit beds were occupied by coronavirus patients, Wieler said.

A meeting of regional leaders planned for Jan. 25 to discuss whether to extend the lockdown into February should be brought forward, said Winfried Kretschmann, the premier of the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg.

Merkel was due to speak to ministers on Thursday about ramping up production of vaccines.

So far only about 1% of the German population has been vaccinated, or 842,455 people, the RKI reported.

Germany has so far recorded 16 cases of people with the fast-spreading strain of the virus first detected in Britain and four with the strain from South Africa, Wieler said, although he admitted gene sequencing of samples was not being done broadly.

Wieler urged people who were offered a COVID-19 vaccination to accept it.

“At the end of the year we will have this pandemic under control,” Wieler said. Enough vaccines would then be available to inoculate the entire population, he said.

(Reporting by Kirsti Knolle and Thomas Escritt, Writing by Caroline Copley and Emma Thomasson, Editing by Riham Alkousaa, Angus MacSwan, William Maclean and Nick Macfie)

Second year of pandemic ‘could even be tougher’: WHO’s Ryan

GENEVA (Reuters) – The second year of the COVID-19 pandemic may be tougher than the first given how the new coronavirus is spreading, especially in the northern hemisphere as more infectious variants circulate, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.

“We are going into a second year of this, it could even be tougher given the transmission dynamics and some of the issues that we are seeing,” Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies official, said during an event on social media.

The worldwide death toll is approaching 2 million people since the pandemic began, with 91.5 million people infected.

The WHO, in its latest epidemiological update issued overnight, said after two weeks of fewer cases being reported, some five million new cases were reported last week, the likely result of a letdown of defenses during the holiday season in which people – and the virus – came together.

“Certainly in the northern hemisphere, particularly in Europe and North America we have seen that sort of perfect storm of the season – coldness, people going inside, increased social mixing and a combination of factors that have driven increased transmission in many, many countries,” Ryan said.

Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19, warned: “After the holidays, in some countries the situation will get a lot worse before it gets better.”

Amid growing fears of the more contagious coronavirus variant first detected in Britain but now entrenched worldwide, governments across Europe on Wednesday announced tighter, longer coronavirus restrictions.

That includes home-office requirements and store closures in Switzerland, an extended Italian COVID-19 state of emergency, and German efforts to further reduce contacts between people blamed for failed efforts, so far, to get the coronavirus under control.

“I worry that we will remain in this pattern of peak and trough and peak and trough, and we can do better,” Van Kerkhove said.

She called for maintaining physical distancing, adding: “The further, the better…but make sure that you keep that distance from people outside your immediate household.”

(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva and John Miller in Zurich; editing by Mark Heinrich)

As coronavirus stalks Brazil’s Amazon, many die untreated at home

By Bruno Kelly and Gabriel Araujo

MANAUS (Reuters) – Shirlene Morais Costa died at her home in the northern Brazilian city of Manaus on Monday, likely the latest victim of a devastating new wave of COVID-19 that has returned to this isolated city deep in the Amazon rainforest.

The 53-year-old went to hospital with a cough and a fever, both symptoms of the coronavirus, but was sent home, according to her stepfather, Esteliano Lopes Filho, 74.

“Her death was swift… We called the ambulance, but it only arrived after she was dead,” he said. “We’re seeing death after death… It really is a terrible calamity.”

Brazil is home to the world’s second deadliest coronavirus outbreak after the United States, and Manaus was one of the first Brazilian cities to creak under a spiraling death and caseload from the first wave of the pandemic last year.

So many were infected that some scientists thought the city of 2 million people might have been approaching herd immunity. But that projection has proved well wide of the mark.

The state of Amazonas, where nearly 6,000 people have died from COVID-19, is now suffering a devastating second wave that is pushing emergency services to breaking point. Many people, like Morais Costa, are dying at home.

Beds for COVID-19 patients in the state reached an occupancy rate of over 98% this week, according to data from the Amazonas state health department. Occupancy in temporary facilities that provide assistance to critical patients for later referral to other points of the health network was at 131%.

There are currently 1,391 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the state, in addition to a further 603 people hospitalized with suspected cases, the data shows.

Last week, refrigerated containers were placed outside the main hospitals in Manaus for the first time since the pandemic’s April peak. The containers are used to store bodies as the city’s healthcare and burial services again become overwhelmed.

(Editing by Gabriel Stargardter and Rosalba O’Brien)

J&J COVID-19 vaccine could be available in Europe in April: source

By Francesco Guarascio

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Johnson & Johnson could deliver the first doses of its COVID-19 vaccine to Europe in April, an EU official told Reuters on Wednesday after a top lawmaker said the U.S. healthcare company was likely to seek EU regulatory approval in February.

Clinical data on the vaccine has been assessed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) since Dec. 1 under a rolling review to speed up possible approval.

A senior EU official, who is involved in negotiations with vaccine makers and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the J&J shot could be available from April 1 in Europe.

Earlier on Wednesday, an EU lawmaker said J&J could seek EU approval for its one-shot vaccine in February.

“EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides announced during our (EU lawmakers) group meeting this morning that the vaccine manufacturer Johnson & Johnson is likely to submit an application for approval to the EU for their vaccine in February,” said Peter Liese, who speaks on health matters for the EU’s center-right group, the assembly’s largest.

Following Liese’s comments, a spokesman for Kyriakides said: “We cannot give any precise indications regarding an application for conditional marketing authorization, but we of course hope that an application could be submitted in the coming weeks.”

EMA, in a statement, said “a date for submission of a marketing authorization application has not yet been confirmed.”

J&J had no immediate comment on the timeline described by the EU source and the lawmaker, which appeared to be slightly behind expectations for the vaccine in the United States.

J&J Chief Scientific Officer Dr. Paul Stoffels told Reuters the drugmaker expects to have clear data on how effective its vaccine is by the end of this month or early February and was on track for a U.S. rollout in March.

The EU drugs regulator had said in December it expected the J&J to apply in the first quarter of this year.

It took EMA 20 days to approve the vaccine developed by BioNTech SE and Pfizer Inc, and just over a month to authorize the Moderna Inc shot after their applications were submitted in early December. The two vaccines are so far the only ones approved in the EU, while AstraZeneca submitted its application on Tuesday.

“If all goes well, we will already have the fourth corona vaccine available in a few weeks,” Liese added.

The EU has booked 200 million doses of the J&J vaccine and has an option to order another 200 million shots. The J&J vaccine is administered as a single shot, while those from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech require two doses three or four weeks apart for full protection.

The EU has invested about 360 million euros ($438 million) to secure the J&J vaccine with a down payment that would need to be complemented with payments by EU governments willing to buy the vaccine after approval.

The U.S. government secured 100 million doses from the company for $1 billion in an August agreement, with an option to buy an additional 200 million doses.

(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio; Additional reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago; Editing by Jason Neely, Louise Heavens and Bill Berkrot)

Fed’s Bullard sees inflation rising, mum on QE taper

By Howard Schneider

(Reuters) – All signs are pointing to a rise in U.S. inflation, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Wednesday, but though the economy may boom later this year, it’s too early to say when the Fed could take any steps to pull back on its super-easy policy.

The money supply has “exploded,” fiscal deficits are “off the charts” and a hot economy may either already be here or “just around the corner,” Bullard said in an interview at the Reuters Next conference.

And with vaccines going first to the elderly and others who are most at risk of dying from COVID-19, he said, daily deaths – now likely near their peak – will drop. “You are going to see that’s going to have big ramifications for the economy” as people worry less about the risks, he said.

“I don’t think there will be a spectacular date when you can say, ‘All clear.'” Bullard said. “I think what will happen is the disease will be less deadly…the virus is going to run out of victims.”

Still, Bullard said, labor markets still have a “long way to go” before they are healed. And even with inflation set to rise, the Fed won’t preemptively tighten policy in response. Inflation has underrun the Fed’s 2% target for the last decade, and has pledged to allow it to exceed 2% for some time to reestablish its credibility.

The Fed has kept rates near zero since last March and has signaled it will keep them there for years to give inflation time to do just that. The central bank has also vowed to keep buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at its current pace of $120 billion a month until it sees “substantial” further progress toward its goals of full employment and price stability.

While a couple Fed policymakers have said they could see that bar being met later this year, Bullard said Wednesday he still needs to see how things develop.

“Labor markets have improved dramatically but still have a long way to go… you still need unemployment to drop, jobs to come back… certain sectors have really been hard hit and for them to come back we are going to have to get this vaccine rolled out,” he said. For the economy as a whole, “it’s possible you get a boom… but let’s wait and see if that actually happens.”

(Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Swiss tighten virus restrictions, stop short of full lockdown

By Arnd Wiegmann

BERN (Reuters) – Switzerland on Wednesday tightened measures to tackle new variants of the COVID-19 virus spreading across the country while stopping short of the full lockdown neighboring countries have adopted to choke off the pandemic.

The wealthy Alpine country also eased rules for pandemic-hit businesses to apply for state aid, which will force the government to ask parliament to top up the latest 2.5 billion Swiss franc ($2.82 billion) pot of money for hardship cases.

Governments across Europe have announced tighter and longer coronavirus lockdowns over fears about a fast-spreading variant first detected in Britain, with vaccinations not expected to help much for another two to three months.

Switzerland, which has so far taken a lighter touch to restricting business and public life, said it will close shops selling non-essential supplies from Monday.

It ordered companies to instruct employees to work from home where possible, or require staff in workplaces with more than one person to wear masks.

It halved the limit on private gatherings to five people. Schools remain open.

Worried by mounting cases of virus mutations that spread more easily, the cabinet extended the closure of restaurants, and cultural and sport sites by five weeks to the end of February, as proposed last week.

New COVID-19 variants were 50% to 70% more infectious than earlier forms, it noted, raising prospects that case numbers could double weekly.

“The government is aware that the measures decided today will have a significant economic impact. We did not take this decision lightly,” President Guy Parmelin told reporters.

Switzerland has cancelled World Cup downhill ski races like the Lauberhorn classic while allowing ski resorts to remain open, reflecting its wariness of levying harsh economic restrictions.

Health authorities reported more than 490,000 cases and 7,851 deaths since the pandemic broke out in February 2020.

Finance Minister Ueli Maurer said Switzerland would keep borrowing to cushion the pandemic’s impact while avoiding new taxes.

($1 = 0.8869 Swiss francs)

(Reporting by John Revill, John Miller, Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi and Michael Shields)

Oil steady as U.S. inventory drop contends with demand woes

By Laila Kearney

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, supported by a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories but under pressure as rising global COVID-19 cases threatened global fuel demand.

Brent crude prices were down 7 cents at $56.51 a barrel by 10:55 a.m. EST (1555 GMT). An earlier rise took prices as high as $57.42 a barrel, the strongest since Feb. 24.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 11 cents, or 0.3%, at $53.32. The session high of $53.93 was its highest since Feb. 20.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to Jan. 8 to 482.2 million barrels, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million-barrel drop, as refiners increased crude runs, the Energy Information Administration said.

“The strong tick higher in refining activity has resulted in the fifth consecutive draw to oil inventories, pushing them to their lowest since last March,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData.

Refinery crude oil runs were up by 274,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said.

Adding to optimism over a tightening market, Saudi Arabia cut supplies of crude for February loading for at least three Asian buyers while meeting requirements of at least four others, several refinery and trade sources told Reuters.

But rising COVID-19 cases that continue to spur restrictions on travel and other activities by governments across the world limited oil prices and the pandemic is expected to cast a shadow on the market for months to come, analysts said.

“While I see crude prices trading higher over the coming months, investors need to be mindful that the road to higher oil demand and prices will remain bumpy,” UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Governments across Europe announced tighter and longer coronavirus lockdowns on Wednesday over fears about a fast-spreading variant first detected in Britain, with vaccinations not expected to help much for another two to three months.

China recorded the biggest daily jump in COVID cases in more than five months, despite four cities in lockdown, increased testing and other measures aimed at preventing another wave of infections in the world’s second biggest economy.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London and Aaron Sheldrick in TOKYO; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Philippa Fletcher and David Gregorio)

WHO reform needed in wake of pandemic, public health experts say

By Kate Kelland and Josephine Mason

LONDON (Reuters) – The role and remit of the World Health Organization (WHO) should be examined in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and reforms will likely be needed to free it from politics and give it more independence, public health experts said on Wednesday.

Speaking at the Reuters Next conference, British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell and Chikwe Ihekweazu, the head of Nigeria’s Centre for Disease Control, said the United Nations health agency had faced difficulties in leading a global response to the pandemic.

“We need to reflect on how the global architecture can be improved,” Ferguson said, including a need to rethink “the governance of organizations such as the WHO”.

“One of the challenges it faces is being truly independent,” he said. “Typically, it is influenced by big states. Historically that has been western countries like the United States, and now it’s very much China as well – and that can sometimes prove challenging in situations like the last year.”

Many governments around the world, including in the United States, Australia and the European Union, have called for the WHO to be reformed or restructured amid criticism of its response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

The WHO has been rocked by a decision last year by the United States to halt its funding and has been accused of being too close to China in the first phase of the pandemic, when critics say Beijing was slow in sharing crucial information on the new coronavirus which first appeared in the city of Wuhan.

The WHO has repeatedly dismissed such accusations, and China insists it has been open and transparent.

Speaking on the same Reuters Next conference panel, Sweden’s Tegnell said that in his view, “this crisis compared to many of the crises in the last decade has become a lot more politicized.”

“That has made the WHO’s role a lot more difficult,” he said.

Nigeria’s Ihekweazu said he hoped the year ahead would see the world work together more closely to tackle the pandemic, particularly in improving equitable access to vaccines designed to prevent the disease.

‘YEAR OF VACCINES’

While vaccines against COVID-19 are starting to be rolled out in some wealthier countries in Europe and the Americas, poorer nations may have to wait some months before they have access to supplies.

“There’s no doubt this year will be the year of vaccines,”Ihekweazu said, adding that he had just seen an updated map of countries where vaccines have been given already.

“Looking at it from a global perspective, it is heartbreaking,” he said. “But it’s early days, it is January, so we’ll have to see how the year pans out.”

All three experts said they expected populations in their countries and others to face restrictions designed to slow the spread of the pandemic for at least the first half of 2021, and maybe longer if the rollout of vaccines takes more time.

But they said they hoped that by the end of the year, life might start to look a little more like a pre-pandemic normal.

“We have to remember that in the world around us, most likely, this virus will keep on transmitting,” said Tegnell. “So we need to keep a high level of preparedness in place. It’s not going to be an easy life.”

(Reporting by Kate Kelland and Josephine Mason; Editing by Alex Richardson)