Tag Archives: Consumers

Pandemic takes center stage in holiday shopping ad campaigns

By Sheila Dang

(Reuters) – After spending the summer convincing consumers to take socially distanced breaks from grim reality, advertisers are now returning to the pandemic as the central focus in holiday shopping campaigns launching this month.

U.S. companies from carmakers to retailers are under pressure to make the shopping season a success after retail sales crashed 21% earlier this year as millions of Americans lost jobs and cut their budgets. They face the challenge of convincing consumers to open their wallets for the holidays even as the coronavirus pandemic rages anew across the United States and Europe.

As new campaigns roll out, brands feel it is their responsibility to inspire optimism for the coming year, but also empathize with “the hurt that people have,” said Jason Schragger, chief creative officer at ad agency Saatchi & Saatchi.

Carmaker Lexus’ iconic “December to Remember” campaign, which features cars wrapped in giant red bows on picturesque snowy driveways, will focus on the different role that driveways have played this year, as people sought ways to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries and other milestones despite stay-at-home orders.

New TV commercials launching on Monday feature family and friends doing a drive-by graduation party in their Lexus vehicles as a student in a cap and gown waves from her driveway. In another, a man greets his children and grandkids from a distance as they drive by, waving a homemade “Happy Birthday, Grandpa” sign.

“We wanted to make sure we weren’t showing large gatherings of people,” said Lisa Materazzo, vice president of marketing at Lexus, owned by Toyota Motor Corp. “But it’s nice to have a live interaction, and that can happen when you’re safe in the car and waving from the driveway.”

Staying connected during the pandemic is the message behind ads for the department store Macy’s, whose window displays and Santa land attraction have been hallmarks of the holidays since the late 19th century.

At a time when flying home or hosting big family gatherings can be dangerous, Macy’s Inc is focusing on how finding and giving the perfect gift plays an even bigger role in connecting with people you can not see in person this year, according to Macy’s chief customer officer Rich Lennox.

A similar theme underpins Etsy’s commercial, in which a woman who longs to see her grandson opens a gift of a handmade doll that matches a picture he had drawn.

“You’re supposed to hug it when you can’t see us,” her grandson said over a video call while holding up the drawing.

PANDEMIC ADJUSTMENTS

Apparel retailer H&M has taken the pandemic-themed ad campaign a step further by changing how commercials are produced in keeping with the times.

The company will lean on influencers working from home to create content, and plans to provide them with outfits and holiday prop kits so they can take festive photos on their own, said Mario Moreno, H&M USA’s head of marketing.

Toy maker Mattel, which has targeted young fans directly on kids’ TV shows, is directing some marketing messages to parents this season.

The owner of the Barbie and Fisher-Price brands will craft digital and social media ads that address the struggle parents have with keeping their kids entertained and engaged after months of schooling from home, said Jason Horowitz, senior vice president of U.S. marketing at Mattel.

The ads will focus on gifts that can offer hours of playtime and mental stimulation while cooped up inside, such as a Thomas & Friends toy that lets kids make-believe that they are taking a trip from their living room, he said.

Expect optimism with a dose of reality at this dark time, ad executives said.

“There’s a lot of 2020 we want to leave behind,” Materazzo said. “But there are nuggets worth celebrating.”

(Reporting by Sheila Dang; Editing by Kenneth Li and Daniel Wallis)

Fed officials tussle over practical meaning of new inflation policy

By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday began fleshing out what their new tolerance for inflation will mean in practice, an issue critical to how investors and households reshape their own outlooks even if it may not be relevant to any immediate decisions by the U.S. central bank.

The new policy, laid out in a strategic document last month and incorporated into a policy statement issued on Wednesday, pledges to keep interest rates near zero until inflation has hit the Fed’s 2% target and is on track “to moderately exceed” it “for some time.”

As it stands, with the coronavirus pandemic sapping demand, leaving millions of Americans unemployed, and threatening the survival of entire industries, inflation is not seen as the core risk. Economic projections released by the Fed this week show inflation only reaching 2% by the end of 2023, with any shift towards tighter monetary policy likely years down the road.

But how the Fed’s new language is interpreted by the central bank’s five current Washington-based governors and 12 regional bank presidents will be central to whether bond markets, stock investors and even consumers see the new approach as likely to be effective, and start behaving in a way that actually helps push inflation higher.

After years of weak inflation, that is the Fed’s hope. It is based on fears of a Japanese-style low inflation rut that can have its own damaging effects over time, and Fed officials on Friday started to outline their views of how to proceed.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, for example, that he’d be paying closer attention to how fast inflation rises rather than to its quarter-to-quarter level in implementing the new approach.

In an interview on Bloomberg Television, Bostic said if inflation went up to 2.3% but appeared stable “that would be fine … By contrast if we were at 2.2 and the next quarter at 2.4 and then at 2.6, that trajectory would give me concern” and perhaps require efforts to cool the economy.

‘GHOST STORIES’

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, in contrast, laid out a more open-ended view in written comments describing why he dissented against the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement on Wednesday.

The Fed, he felt, was setting itself up to make the same mistake it has in the past of reacting too quickly to inflation “ghost stories” and risked nipping off job growth too soon.

He said the Fed instead should switch its focus to core inflation, a slower moving variable that excludes volatile commodity prices, and ensure that it reached 2% on a “sustained basis.”

“I would have preferred the Committee make a stronger commitment to not raising rates until we were certain to have achieved our dual mandate objectives,” of maximum employment consistent with stable prices, Kashkari said in an essay.

A second dissent from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan argued the central bank should keep its options open to raise rates sooner if needed – a sign of the broad debate now taking place over just what the new framework will mean in practice.

Critics say they feel the Fed’s new approach rings hollow without strong measures to back it up and produce the higher inflation they seek, such as more aggressive bond-buying.

But St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation may move higher on its own if, as he suspects, the economic recovery gains traction at a time when global supply chains are being reorganized, monetary policy is loose, and governments are issuing record levels of debt to finance pandemic-related spending.

“A lot of people on Wall Street are saying ‘you could not hit 2%, how are you going to have inflation above 2%?,'” Bullard said in webcast remarks to a Washington University in St. Louis forum.

“I think we are at a moment where you may see some inflation … You have got more relaxed central banks … You have got huge fiscal deficits which historically have been a catalyst for inflation. And you have possibly bottleneck-type pressures.”

(Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)

Scarred and scared: post-Covid consumers not their old selves

By Mark John

LONDON (Reuters) – Michael Clark of Amy’s Housewares has one big fear as its London stores prepare to reopen on June 15 along with other retailers around Britain: “Customers not spending, having no trust in the economy.”

His concern, captured in a survey by the British Independent Retailers Association (BIRA) before a nationwide easing of social distancing measures, may be well-founded.

Across the world, consumers are emerging from lockdowns warier and more thrift-conscious than before. That will drag on any recovery and could encourage governments and central bankers to follow up on coronavirus handouts with more costly stimulus.

The new thrift is showing up in various ways: some households are hoarding the cash they saved during lockdowns; some are flocking to cheaper brands or sticking with essentials.

GRAPHIC: Savings rates in Europe rise Savings rates in Europe rise – https://graphics.reuters.com/ECONOMY-EU/SAVINGS/yxmvjkqlnpr/chart.png

Other risks to consumer demand include the outright collapse of purchasing power among those whose livelihoods were ruined by the pandemic and even imponderables such as what happens to spending patterns if more people continue to work from home.

In China, shopping malls began to fill up again from April after lockdown eased. Online sales have surged in some categories, often helped by discounts and state coupons.

But a lingering wariness about items deemed non-essential means consumers may still not emerge as the pillar of growth which Beijing hopes they will be.

“Consumers are placing a greater focus on essential spending categories,” Fitch Solutions said in a June 4 report, predicting a fall in Chinese household spending this year and slashing its 2020 growth forecast to just 1.1% from 5.6% before the pandemic.

DOLLAR STORE CLIENTELE GROWS

In the United States, commonplace brands such as chocolate giant Hershey or toothpaste-maker Colgate say consumers have traded down. Dollar stores, meanwhile, expect to open their doors to a new set of customers as they did after the 2008-09 Great Recession.

“In 2008, folks lost jobs … and they found us. And I think that’s some of what we’re planning for as we take a look into our crystal ball at back half of the year and 2021,” Dollar Tree Chief Executive Gary Philbin said on May 28.

Much hangs now on what happens to the mountain of savings built up by those U.S. households which weathered the worst of the lockdown fall-out and have pushed the overall U.S. savings rate to a record 33% of income.

GRAPHIC: Savings rates in the U.S. rise – https://graphics.reuters.com/ECONOMY-USA/SAVINGS/nmovakbjdva/chart.png

While that rate will fall, those who expect cash to flood back into the economy may be disappointed. A 2012 paper by IMF researchers found that lingering uncertainty after the onset of the 2008-09 recession boosted saving rates durably, leading to lower consumption and growth in the wider economy.

Moreover many U.S. households are about to suffer “income cliffs” with one-off tax rebates expiring in May and pandemic unemployment compensation ending in July, Oxford Economics said, forecasting lower household income through the rest of the year.

“This will likely act as a constraint on the consumer spending recovery well into 2021,” it said in a June 3 note.

Such a scenario could force policy makers across the world to encourage savers to spend by speeding up moves to ease lockdowns, offering more economic support or pushing interest rates further towards, and even into, negative territory.

The same dilemma exists in Europe. The European Central Bank expects household savings to rise six points to 19% of income this year and remain high next year due to what economists call “scarring”, when an event leaves a durable impact on behaviour.

Citing the risk of cash-hoarding, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has called for direct incentives to boost demand. The budget he will present next week will forecast a drop in consumer spending of 10% this year as households amass savings.

Germany has announced a cut in valued-added tax for the second half of the year to drive consumption, coupling that with cash handouts to parents.

Presenting hefty downgrades of the bank’s eurozone growth protections on Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the depth of scarring of domestic demand was one big factor that will determine the size of the contraction and recovery to come.

She warned: “Overall, the (ECB) Governing Council sees the balance of risks … to the downside.”

(Additional reporting by Reuters bureaux; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

Toilet paper trophy hunters on a roll as U.S. shortages start easing

By Martinne Geller and Lisa Baertlein

LONDON/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – U.S. consumers have begun spotting rare Quilted Northern and Charmin toilet paper rolls on store shelves across the United States, as stocks start building after weeks of severe shortages.

Shoppers who bagged the coveted rolls are crowing on Twitter about their finds. “Found some toilet paper in the wild! Driving it home now,” tweeted @TransForYang on April 23. “This is as close as I’ll ever come to knowing what it feels like driving one of those armored money trucks.”

Empty shelves were still a problem at nearly half of American grocery stores as of mid-April, but supplies were markedly more plentiful than they had been during the prior week, according to the consumer products data tracker NCSolutions.

About 48 percent of U.S. grocery stores were out of stock of toilet paper for some part of the day on April 19, the latest date for which figures were available. In comparison, out-of-stock shelves were prevalent at 73 percent of U.S. grocery stores one week earlier, on April 12, according to the data, provided exclusively to Reuters.

Demand for toilet paper is still up 27 percent from pre-Covid-19 levels, NCSolutions said.

The average U.S. household – 2.6 people – uses about 409 rolls a year, according to Georgia Pacific, maker of Angel Soft and Quilted Northern. It estimated that staying at home 24/7 would boost that by 40 percent, and that a two-person household would use nine double rolls in about two weeks.

Toilet paper is not the only essential item shoppers stocked up on after states started locking down businesses to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus in mid-March. The large size of toilet paper packages versus other staples such as pasta, soap and canned goods means that retail stores rarely keep much in stock, and so are quicker to run out.

In Europe, the shortages at retail stores may be less dire due partly to the fact that some production is done closer to retailers.

“Normally there are fewer and larger factories in the U.S.,” said Magnus Groth, chief executive of Europe’s biggest toilet paper maker, Essity. Groth said Essity, which in the United States sells tissue products to businesses only, met a spike in European demand by boosting production, selling down inventory and securing extra transport capacity.

The U.S. retail market for toilet paper was worth $9.7 billion last year, according to Euromonitor International.

Procter & Gamble dominates with about a 29% share, followed by Kimberly-Clark, maker of Cottonelle and Scott, and privately held Koch Industries-owned Georgia Pacific.

For Charmin maker Procter & Gamble, March and April will be record production months, said Rick McLeod, its vice president of global family care product supply.

The company’s six U.S. plants are running 24/7, focusing on the most popular products. P&G’s plants manufacture massive “parent” rolls of toilet paper and then convert them to small rolls for home use. The parent rolls, which are a standard in the industry, measure more than eight feet in diameter and weigh about a ton.

“Our data says that in-stock levels are improving but notwhere we want them to be certainly,” McLeod said.

Georgia Pacific is now making 1.5 million more roles perday, and is trying to maximize the number of deliveries it canship. Its mills and regional distribution centers have shippedabout 120 percent of normal capacity, while a shift to directshipments where possible has reduced shipping time to retailersby up to three days, a spokesman said.

Store checks last week showed toilet paper was approachingnormal stock levels after being “deeply deficient for over 50days,” said Burt Flickinger, managing director of consulting firm Strategic Resource Group, adding that it was the first week his firm saw adequate levels of shelf stock.

(Additional reporting by Anna Ringstrom in Stockholm and Nivedita Balu in Bengaluru; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)

U.S households see spending up, job prospects improving: New York Fed survey

- A shopper walks down an aisle in a Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Consumers expect to boost spending in the months ahead and voiced confidence they are more likely to find a job and less likely to lose one in a strong labor market, the New York Federal Reserve reported Monday in its latest monthly survey of consumer expectations.

Nearly 35 percent of the 1,300 heads of household included in the June poll said they were better off economically than a year go, a record in the four years the survey has been conducted.

The results bolster the current Fed outlook of an economy that continues to generate jobs despite tepid overall growth and some concern about a recent dip in inflation, improving chances the central bank can follow through with plans for a further interest rate increase later this year.

Though household expectations of inflation for the year ahead did dip slightly from the May survey, to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent, respondents expect strong price increases of 2.8 percent over the coming three years. That’s consistent with the Fed’s current outlook that the recent weakness in inflation will prove temporary.

The survey also bolstered the view of continued strong consumption growth. Half of those polled said they expected to spend at least 3.3 percent more in the coming year, compared to median expected spending growth of 2.6 percent in the May survey. One-year-ahead expected earnings growth increased to 2.5 percent in the June survey from 2.2 percent in May.

Respondents also showed broad faith in the strength of the labor market, with a slight dip to 13.5 percent from 13.6 percent in the perceived probability of losing a job in the next year, and a jump to 59.2 percent from 56.7 percent in the probability of finding employment.

More than a fifth of respondents said they might leave a job voluntarily in the next year, up from 19.4 percent in May. Voluntarily job exits are considered a sign of a strong labor market that offers employees choices.

The online poll is designed to be a representative sample of the U.S. population. The New York Fed did not provide the margin of error for the poll.

 

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

 

Frugal U.S. consumers seen holding back first-quarter GDP

People shop at The Grove mall in Los Angeles November 26, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy likely hit a soft patch in the first quarter as an unseasonably warm winter and rising inflation weighed on consumer spending, in a potential setback to President Donald Trump’s promise to boost growth.

Reduced business investment in inventories and government spending cuts also crimped gross domestic product growth. A Reuters survey of economists conducted last week forecast GDP rising at a 1.2 percent annual rate, but many economists lowered their estimates after the government on Thursday released advance reports on the goods trade deficit and inventories in March.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting the economy growing at only a 0.2 percent rate in the first quarter, which would be the weakest performance in three years.

The economy grew at a 2.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter. The government will publish its advance first-quarter GDP estimate on Friday at 8:30 a.m. The expected sluggish first-quarter growth pace, however, is not a true picture of the economy’s health.

The labor market is near full employment and consumer confidence is near multi-year highs, suggesting that the mostly weather-induced slowdown in consumer spending is probably temporary. First-quarter GDP tends to underperform because of difficulties with the calculation of data that the government has acknowledged and is working to rectify.

“The weakness is not a reflection of the underlying health of the economy, part of it is residual seasonality,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “It has become more understood over the past few years, that’s why people often discount first-quarter GDP.”

Even without the seasonal quirk and temporary restraints, economists say it would be difficult for Trump to fulfill his pledge to raise annual GDP growth to 4 percent, without increases in productivity.

Trump is targeting infrastructure spending, tax cuts and deregulation to achieve his goal of faster economic growth.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration proposed a tax plan that includes cutting the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent, but offered no details.

ANEMIC CONSUMER SPENDING

Economists estimate that growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, braked to below a 1.0 percent rate in the first quarter. That would be the slowest pace in nearly four years and follows the fourth quarter’s robust 3.5 percent growth rate.

The expected weakness in consumer spending is blamed on a mild winter, which undermined demand for heating and utilities production. Higher inflation, which saw the consumer price index averaging 2.5 percent in the first quarter, also hurt spending.

Government delays issuing income tax refunds to combat fraud also weighed on consumer spending. Economists said Federal Reserve officials were likely to view both the anemic consumer spending and GDP growth as temporary when they meet next week. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates.

“The good news is that the Fed in recent years has distanced itself from the GDP numbers,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey. “A weak first-quarter GDP print should not affect the policy debate.”

After contributing to GDP growth for two straight quarters, inventory investment was likely a drag in the first quarter. JPMorgan is forecasting inventories chopping off one percentage point from GDP growth. Trade was likely neutral after being a huge drag in the fourth quarter.

But some good news is expected. Business investment likely rose further, with spending on equipment seen accelerating thanks to rising gas and oil well drilling as oil prices continue their recovery from multi-year lows.

Investment in home building is also expected to have gained momentum in the first quarter.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)