Important Takeaways:

• Before the Russian invasion in early 2022, Ukraine was exporting about 6.5 million tonnes of grain overseas every month, according to figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, bringing in revenues of $27.8bn for the year 2021. It was the world’s seventh-largest exporter of wheat and fourth-biggest exporter of barley, according to the Foreign Agriculture Service of the US Department of Agriculture.
• Grain exports had fallen to just over 2 million tonnes per month in mid-2023, just over a year into the war.
• The reasoning behind Moscow’s targeting of grain-exporting ships was not yet clear.
• Russia may be emboldened by its recent gains in Donbas, or it may be seeking retaliation for Ukraine’s surprise attack across the border in the region of Kursk
• It may also simply be looking for new ways to weaken Ukraine. “If you can weaken Ukraine economically, that reduces its ability to resist,” Gorenburg said.
• Rather than targeting ports, the “intimidation of commercial shippers is a much better way to do that”.

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