Tag Archives: U.S. Economy

Dollar inches higher as investors look to Fed decision this week

Arrangement of various world currencies including Chinese Yuan, US Dollar, Euro, British Pound,

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar edged higher from two-week lows on Monday, recovering after Friday’s bout of profit-taking following a robust U.S. jobs report, as investors looked to this week’s Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in which it is expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.

“We remain bullish on the dollar, but as Friday’s events suggested, a lot of good news is already priced into the dollar at current levels,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist, at Scotiabank in Toronto.

“Yields are high enough and spreads are wide enough to keep the dollar broadly supported against its major currency peers for the moment, but additional gains will likely hinge on the messaging from the Fed at the FOMC.”

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting, which starts on Tuesday. Fed funds futures on Monday have priced in a nearly 90-percent chance the Fed will hike rates on Wednesday.

Sterling, which has been one of the worst performers against the dollar over the last two weeks, rose half a percent after the devolved Scottish government demanded the right to hold a new referendum on independence.

In late morning trading, the dollar was slightly higher  against a basket of currencies at 101.31 and was marginally up against the euro. The single European currency was last at $1.0664.

The dollar index earlier fell to a two-week low of 101.01.

Friday’s solid jobs number cemented the case for a rise in U.S. interest rates this week that will long predate any rise in European equivalents.

Britain is expected to formally lodge its request to leave the European Union, but was given another curve ball from Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a new referendum on independence.

But Sturgeon’s timeframe for the referendum, which at the earliest could happen by the end of next year when Brexit negotiations are expected to be concluded, partially eased concerns about the issue adding to more political risk over the next 12 months.

Sterling, as a result, held gains against the dollar rising 0.5 percent to $1.2229.

Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 114.68 yen.

Scotiabank, in a research note, said there is speculation on the potential for changes at the Bank of Japan, including a possible shift to 10-year government bond yield target range from the current zero level. This is considered positive for the yen.

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Patrick Graham in London; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

Higher energy prices boost producer inflation

empty shopping cart

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in January, recording their largest gain in more than four years amid increases in the cost of energy products and some services, but a strong dollar continued to keep underlying inflation tame.

The Labor Department said on Tuesday its producer price index for final demand jumped 0.6 percent last month. That was the largest increase since September 2012 and followed a 0.2 percent rise in December.

Despite the surge, the PPI only increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months through January. That followed a similar gain in the 12 months through December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 0.3 percent last month and the year-on-year increase moderating to 1.5 percent.

The U.S. dollar pared losses against a basket of currencies after the data. Prices of U.S. Treasuries were mixed while U.S. stock index futures were largely flat.

The rise in producer prices comes as manufacturers report paying more for raw materials. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) prices index surged in January to its highest level since May 2011. The ISM index, which is closely correlated to the PPI, has increased for 11 straight months.

The gains in PPI last month largely reflected increases in the prices of commodities such as crude oil, which are being boosted by a steadily growing global economy. Oil prices have risen above $50 per barrel.

But with the dollar strengthening further against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners and wage growth still sluggish, the spillover to consumer inflation from rising commodity prices is likely to be limited.

A government report on Friday showed import prices excluding fuels fell in January for a third straight month. Data on Wednesday is expected to show the consumer price index increased 0.3 percent in January after a similar gain in December, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

Last month, prices for final demand goods increased 1.0 percent, the largest rise since May 2015. The gain accounted for more than 60 percent of the increase in the PPI. Prices for final demand goods advanced 0.6 percent in December.

Wholesale food prices were unchanged last month after climbing 0.5 percent in December. Healthcare costs rose 0.2 percent. Those costs feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index.

The volatile trade services component, which measures changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, shot up 0.9 percent in January after being unchanged in the prior month.

A key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services rose 0.2 percent. That followed a 0.1 percent gain in December. The so-called core PPI increased 1.6 percent in the 12 months through January, slowing from December’s 1.7 percent gain.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. jobless claims drop to near 43-year low

Applicants fill out forms at job fair

WASHINGTON, Feb 9 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to near a 43-year low, amid a further tightening of the labor market that could eventually spur faster wage growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That left claims just shy of the 43-year low of 233,000 touched in early November.

Claims have now remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labor market, for 101 straight weeks.

That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

The labor market is at or close to full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.8 percent. It hit a nine-year low of 4.6 percent in November.

Further tightening in labor market conditions could boost wage growth, which has remained stubbornly sluggish despite anecdotal evidence of more companies struggling to find qualified workers.

Lackluster wage growth, if sustained, could hurt consumer spending and crimp economic growth. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 250,000 in the latest week.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data and no states had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,750 to 244,250 last week, the lowest level since November 1973.

The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 15,000 to 2.08 million in the week ended Jan. 28. The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims fell 3,750 to 2.08 million.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

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U.S. farmers race to ready for Hurricane Matthew’s blast

Cars are seen along Deerfield beach near Coral Springs while Hurricane Matthew approaches in Florida,

By Chris Prentice

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Hurricane Matthew, the fiercest Caribbean storm in nearly a decade, roiled commodities markets and forced companies from cane refiners to orange juice makers to shutter as it whipped its way toward the southeastern United States on Thursday.

Southeastern companies were closing down operations ahead of a storm that could threaten some two million tonnes of sugar and trees representing over 90 million boxes of citrus fruits in Florida. About half a million acres of cotton were at risk from torrential rain in North and South Carolina, where farmers have already been struggling during a rainy harvest.

Officials issued a state of emergency for parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas for the Category 4 hurricane that by Thursday afternoon had already taken the lives of 140 people, mostly in Haiti. Port operations along the coast were slowing or shut.

For commodities markets including U.S. sugar, orange juice and cotton, the storm prompted a volatile week of trade. Though forecasters like senior meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc said damage to Florida’s sugar and citrus crops would likely be limited, producers were readying for the worst.

The storm has forced a shutdown of sugar operations just days into the harvest, said Ryan Weston, executive vice president of the Sugar Cane League, which represents growers in Florida, Texas and Hawaii.

“Depending on the intensity and path of the winds, hurricanes will knock the cane down to the ground, slowing harvest way down. It hurts this harvest and the next,” Weston said.

The storm was expected to hit Florida or brush along the state’s east coast through Friday night, then work its way up the Atlantic coast.

As of 5 p.m. (2100 GMT) Thursday, Matthew contained sustained winds of 140 mph and gusts up to 165 mph, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It was about 100 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida, and was moving to the north-northwest at 14 mph.

Florida’s east coast, predominantly grapefruit country, was expected to bear the brunt of the storm. There, trees have already been weakened from disease, said Lerner.

“Our growers are already facing challenges,” said Nikki Hayde, senior marketing manager for Florida’s Natural Growers, a cooperative of about 1,000 citrus farmers throughout the state.

“We are trying to get out orders that were scheduled for Thursday and Friday on the road as quickly as possible,” she said.

‘HARVESTING AS FAST AS WE CAN’

The U.S. livestock industry was also closely tracking the storm’s path, likely to brush the hog-rich Carolinas.

Smithfield Foods, a subsidiary of WH Group Ltd and the world’s largest hog producer and pork processor, moved to protect people, animals and buildings from the impending storm, said company spokeswoman Keira Lombardo in an e-mail.

Crews at the port of Wilmington, North Carolina, prepared for Matthew’s winds by lowering container stacks and tying down equipment.

In North and South Carolina’s cotton-growing regions, farmers raced to bring in fiber from fields where rains have delayed harvesting and the plants were at one of their most vulnerable stages, most susceptible to the 2 to 15 inches of rain expected.

“It’s tricky,” said Michael Quinn, president and chief executive of Carolinas Cotton Growers Cooperative Inc. “The growers are harvesting as fast as they can.”

“We are closely monitoring conditions ahead of the storm and working proactively with farmers to help them prepare for a significant rainfall event. Governor McCrory has declared a state of emergency for all 100 counties in North Carolina as we brace for as much as 10 to 12 inches of rain in our coastal areas,” said North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality spokeswoman Stephanie Hawco.

(Corrects quote in last paragraph to say “for all 100 counties in North Carolina,” not “for all 100 counties in central and eastern North Carolina”.)

(Reporting by Chris Prentice in New York and Theopolis Waters and Karl Plume in Chicago; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Drop in U.S. consumer spending clouds Fed rate hike outlook

Consumers at a mall

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending fell in August for the first time in seven months while inflation showed signs of accelerating, mixed signals that could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about raising interest rates.

The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, fell 0.1 percent last month after accounting for inflation.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 0.1 percent gain.

“Consumers took a breather in August,” said Chris Christopher of IHS Global Insight.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week she expected the U.S. central bank would raise rates once later this year to keep the economy from eventually overheating.

Prices for fed funds futures suggest investors see almost no chance of a hike at the Fed’s next policy meeting in early November and roughly even odds of an increase at its mid-December meeting, according to CME Group.

The dollar <.DXY> was little changed against a basket of currencies while U.S. stock prices were trading higher.

Consumer spending, which has been robust in recent months, partially offset the drag from weak business investment and falling inventories in the second quarter when the economy expanded at a lackluster 1.4 percent annual rate.

Economists said overall economic growth could still accelerate in the current quarter even with August’s slight decline in consumer spending.

The Atlanta Fed said growth appeared on track to accelerate to a 2.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to its closely watched GDPNow forecasting model. It had forecast growth of 2.8 percent for the period earlier this week.

A tightening labor market appears to be pushing up wages and could fuel higher levels of spending in the future. Personal income rose 0.2 percent in August, in line with expectations.

Consumer prices also rose about as much expected in August, with the price index excluding food and energy increasing 0.2 percent from the prior month. That left inflation excluding food and energy at 1.7 percent in the 12 months through August, up a tenth of a percentage point from the prior month and closer to the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Paul Simao)

Fed looks unlikely to hikes next week after Brainard warning

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard delivers remarks on "Coming of Age in the Great Recession"

By Jason Lange and Karen Pierog

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve should avoid removing support for the U.S. economy too quickly, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Monday in comments that solidified the view the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged next week.

Brainard said she wanted to see a stronger trend in U.S. consumer spending and evidence of rising inflation before the Fed raises rates, and that the United States still looked vulnerable to economic weakness abroad.

“Today’s new normal counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation,” Brainard, one of six permanent voters on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

She said the U.S. labor market was not yet at full strength, which means “the case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling.”

Brainard did not comment on the specific timing of future rate policy changes but she held firm in arguing for caution in what could be the last word from a Fed policymaker before the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 meeting.

Policymakers will go into the meeting divided, with some concerned current low rates will fuel a surge in inflation while another camp, which includes Brainard, has argued that the Fed should not rush to raise rates.

Many other policymakers think the U.S. job market is near full strength and Fed Chair Janet Yellen argued in July the case for rate increases has strengthened.

“I think circumstances call for a lively discussion next week,” said Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who will not be a voter at next week’s policy review but will participate in discussions.

Brainard said on Monday the labor market might still tighten further without putting pressure on inflation.

“The response of inflation to unexpected strength in demand will likely be modest and gradual, requiring a correspondingly moderate policy response,” she said.

U.S. stock prices rose following Brainard’s comments while the dollar weakened and yields on U.S. government debt fell. Traders trimmed their odds for a September rate hike to 15 percent from 24 percent on Friday, according to CME Group. Investors still saw just higher than 50/50 odds for a December hike.

The central bank last raised borrowing costs in December, ending seven years of near-zero rates. Policymakers signaled in June they could still hike rates twice in what remained of 2016.

Over the last year, Brainard has been one of the Fed’s most vocal defenders of low interest rate policy, arguing the United States is vulnerable to economic troubles in Asia and Europe.

She said on Monday the low interest rate policies across advanced economies could make the United States more vulnerable to spikes in the value of the dollar which could put downward pressure on inflation.

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump accused the Fed on Monday of keeping interest rates low because of political pressure from the Obama administration.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said “politics does not play a part” in the Fed’s deliberations and that current low U.S. inflation means there is no “huge urgency” to hike.

Inflation has been below the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target for the last four years.

Viewed as an influential voice of caution within the Fed’s Washington-based board of governors, Brainard was the U.S. Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs from 2010 to 2013.

(Reporting by Jason Lange in Chicago; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

U.S. trade deficit rises to ten-month high in June

Freighters and cargo containers sit idle at the Port of Los Angeles as a back-log of over 30 container ships sit anchored outside the Port in Los Angeles

WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit rose to a 10-month high in June as rising domestic demand and higher oil prices boosted the import bill while the lagging effects of a strong dollar continued to hamper export growth.

The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap increased 8.7 percent to $44.5 billion in June, the biggest deficit since August 2015. May’s trade deficit was revised slightly down to $41.0 billion.

June marked the third straight month of increases in the deficit. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade gap widening to $43.1 billion in June after a previously reported $41.1 billion shortfall. When adjusted for inflation, the deficit rose to $64.7 billion from $60.9 billion in May.

The government in its snapshot of second-quarter gross domestic product published last week said trade had contributed two-tenths of a percentage point to the 1.2 percent annualized growth pace during the period.

The dollar’s sharp rally against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners between June 2014 and December 2015 has undercut export growth.

With the dollar weakening this year on a trade-weighted basis, some of the drag on exports had started to ebb. But the dollar has been regaining strength in the wake of Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union, and economists say that could renew pressure on exports.

Exports of goods and services edged up 0.3 percent in June.

Exports to the European Union jumped 7.8 percent, with goods shipped to the United Kingdom soaring 18.2 percent. China bought more U.S.-made goods in June, with exports to that country rising 3.6 percent.

Imports of goods and services increased 1.9 percent to $227.7 billion in June, with oil prices accounting for part of the rise. Oil prices averaged $39.38 per barrel in June, the highest level since October of last year, from $34.19 in May.

The $5.19 increase in the average oil price in June from May was the biggest since May 2011.

June’s increase in imports also reflected a pickup in domestic demand. Imports from China increased 2.8 percent. With imports outpacing exports, the politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit rose 2.5 percent to $29.8 billion in June, the biggest gap since last November.

Housing, medical care support U.S. underlying inflation

Job seekers at job fair

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices moderated in May, but sustained increases in housing and healthcare costs kept underlying inflation supported, which could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

While another report on Thursday showed an increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week, the trend remained consistent with a healthy labor market. The data came a day after the Fed downgraded its assessment of the jobs market and gave a mixed view of the economy.

The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent last month, slowing from April’s 0.4 percent rise. Gasoline prices rose modestly and the cost of food fell.

In the 12 months through May, the CPI gained 1.0 percent after advancing 1.1 percent in April.

Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI, increased 0.2 percent after a similar gain in April. That took the year-on-year core CPI rise to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.3 percent last month and the core CPI rising 0.2 percent.

The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is currently at 1.6 percent. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged and said it expected inflation to remain below its target through 2017.

While the Fed signaled it still planned two rate hikes this year, there was less conviction, with six officials expecting only a single increase, up from one in March. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

The dollar extended losses against the yen on the data, while prices for U.S. government debt were little changed.

FOOD PRICES FALL

Last month, gasoline prices rose 2.3 percent after surging 8.1 percent in April. Food prices fell 0.2 percent, reversing the prior month’s increase.

Within the core CPI basket, housing and medical costs maintained their upward trend. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence rose 0.3 percent after rising by the same margin in April.

Medical care costs increased 0.3 percent after a similar gain in April. The cost of hospital services shot up 0.7 percent after rising 0.3 percent the prior month. Doctor visit costs rose 1.0 percent, but the cost of prescription medicine fell 0.4 percent after increasing 0.7 percent in April.

Apparel prices rose 0.8 percent. The cost of used cars and trucks dropped 1.3 percent, the biggest fall since March 2009. Prices for new motor vehicles fell 0.1 percent.

In a second report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000 for the week ended June 11.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, slipped 250 to 269,250 last week.

Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong job market, for 67 straight weeks, the longest streak since 1973. The Fed said on Wednesday “the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up.”

The U.S. central bank also noted that while the unemployment rate had declined, “job gains have diminished.”

But with job openings near record highs, both economists and Fed officials expect job growth to pick up after the economy added only 38,000 jobs in May, the smallest increase since September 2010.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. Producer prices rise as cost of energy and services increased

A man unloads vegetables at Grand Central Market in Los Angeles

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. producer prices rose for a second straight month in May as the cost of energy products and services increased, but the lingering effects of a strong dollar and lower energy prices will likely keep inflation tame for a while.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.4 percent last month after rising 0.2 percent in April. In the 12 months through May, the PPI slipped 0.1 percent after being unchanged in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.3 percent last month and slipping 0.1 percent from a year ago.

A surge in the dollar and the plunge in oil prices between June 2014 and December 2015 have dampened price pressures, keeping inflation below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

Although the dollar has dropped 1.5 percent against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners this year and oil prices are near $50 per barrel, underlying inflation remains benign.

Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell after the data, while the dollar rose against the yen and euro. U.S. stock index futures were trading higher.

Tame inflation and a sharp slowdown in U.S. job gains in May will likely encourage the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of a two-day policy meeting later on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

Last month, energy prices jumped 2.8 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in April. Energy prices accounted for two-thirds of the 0.7 percent rise in the cost of goods in May.

Prices for services rose 0.2 percent after inching up 0.1 percent in April. The increase reflected an increase in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.

A key measure of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services dipped 0.1 percent last month after rising 0.3 percent in April.

The so-called core PPI was up 0.8 percent in the 12 months through May. The core PPI increased 0.9 percent in April.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. plans billions in Afghan funding until 2020

Graffiti is seen on a wall of the Darul Aman palace in Kabul, Afghanistan, June 5, 2016.

By Josh Smith

KABUL (Reuters) – The United States is asking its allies helping with security in Afghanistan to maintain funding for Afghan forces at a cost of nearly $5 billion a year until at least 2020, a top U.S. military commander said on Monday.

The plan extends the international financial commitment for the foreseeable future at a time when Western leaders have been hoping to reduce Afghanistan’s reliance on foreign military aid.

Military commanders are making the pitch for continued funding ahead of a NATO summit in Warsaw in early July, where the alliance’s leaders will discuss support for the Afghan government, which is struggling to contain a resurgent Taliban insurgency.

“There is strong agreement, certainly from the chiefs of defense, that the support for Afghanistan … needs to continue,” Major General Skip Davis told reporters in Kabul.

“I think there is much more consensus on the fact that stemming extremism here, in the region, is a direct contribution to security in the homeland. There’s a willingness to do what it takes.”

Efforts by Western nations to extract themselves from the war in Afghanistan have been frustrated by high levels of violence.

When they gathered at a similar summit in 2012, NATO members and other nations had planned on slowly reducing financial support for Afghanistan as international troops withdrew.

“Obviously, conditions have changed since decisions were made back in 2012 and 2014,” Davis said.

Under the current funding structure, the United States provides a little more than $3.5 billion a year.

Other countries contribute another $900 million to $1 billion, while the Afghan government pays more than $400 million, a share Davis said was expected to grow.

Commanders say that general level of funding is expected to continue for at least four years.

The funding is based on maintaining a goal of 352,000 Afghan soldiers and police. The official roster currently includes about 320,000 members of the security forces, Davis said.

Among the factors that coalition commanders are considering as they recommend funding and troop levels are the high rates of Afghan casualties, their struggles in training new troops and replacing damaged equipment, and the continuing “fragility” of the national government, Davis said.

“Last year was a big signal that the Afghan army and police need some more time,” he said.

“They are resilient, they fought well and they took on leadership, but at the same time, they had some significant challenges and the Taliban proved much more resilient than we expected and less likely to come to the table for reconciliation.”

(Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Robert Birsel)