Tag Archives: Economy

U.S. weekly jobless claims point to strong labor market

FILE PHOTO: People wait in line to attend TechFair LA, a technology job fair, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 26, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could further ease concerns about the economy’s health.

The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed data last week showing employers hired the most workers in 10 months in December and increased wages for their workers.

Surveys showing steep declines in consumer and manufacturing activity in December had stoked fears that the economy was rapidly losing momentum.

“There are increasing risks and caution over the economic outlook in 2019, but jobless claims say the seas are calm and it looks to be smooth sailing for the economy for now,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Jan. 5. Data for the prior week was revised up to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims declining to 225,000 in the latest week. The Labor Department said only claims for Puerto Rico were estimated last week.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the claims report.

Claims were boosted in the week ending Dec. 29 as workers furloughed because of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government applied for benefits. The federal government partially closed on Dec. 22 as President Donald Trump demanded that the U.S. Congress give him $5.7 billion this year to help build a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico.

The shutdown, which has affected a quarter of the government, including the Commerce Department, has left 800,000 employees furloughed or working without pay. Private contractors working for many government agencies are also without pay.

FEDERAL WORKER CLAIMS RISE

Claims by federal workers are reported separately and with a one-week lag. The number of federal employees filing for jobless benefits increased by 3,831 to 4,760 in the week ending Dec. 29. Furloughed federal government workers can submit claims for unemployment benefits, but payment would depend on whether Congress decides to pay their salaries retroactively.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,500 to 221,750 last week.

The economy created 312,000 jobs in December. The unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.9 percent as some unemployed Americans piled into the labor market, confident of their job prospects.

While labor market strength has helped to calm fears that the economy, tighter financial market conditions and slowing global growth could make the Federal Reserve cautious about raising interest rates this year.

Minutes of the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 18-19 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed “many” officials were of the view that the Fed “could afford to be patient about further policy firming.”

The Fed has forecast two rate hikes this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and several policymakers have said they would be patient and flexible in policy decisions this year.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 28,000 to 1.72 million for the week ended Dec. 29. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims increased 15,250 to 1.72 million.

November’s wholesale inventories report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, which was scheduled for release on Thursday, will not be published because of the government shutdown.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. private payrolls surge in December; weekly jobless claims rise

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls increased by the most in nearly two years in December, suggesting sustained strength in the labor market despite ongoing financial market volatility.

While other data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, the underlying trend in claims remained low. Claims data tend to be volatile around year-end holidays.

Labor market data is being closely watched for signs of whether tightening financial conditions could be impacting on companies’ hiring decisions. A sharp stock market sell-off has stoked fears about the economy’s health.

The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by 271,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 157,000 increase in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls advancing 178,000 last month following a previously reported 179,000 increase in November.

The ADP report, which is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics, was published ahead of the government’s more comprehensive employment report for December scheduled for release on Friday.

The ADP report has a spotty record predicting the private-payrolls component of the government’s employment report and last month’s jump probably exaggerates the strength of the labor market.

“The December ADP data have been especially unreliable because of the challenge of adjusting for ‘purging’ effects,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.

“December is typically when employers drop from their listings all individuals who have left their firms permanently,” he said. “Such workers are dropped from the government data when they are no longer being paid, but some employers keep former employees on their lists for ADP until year-end tax documents have been filed.”

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 177,000 jobs last month after rising 155,000 in November. The unemployment rate is forecast steady near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, not too far from the Federal Reserve’s forecast of 3.5 percent by the end of 2019.

With the labor market viewed at being at or beyond full employment, the pace of job growth is slowing as employers struggle to find workers. Some of the moderation in employment gains has been attributed to the stock market rout.

The Fed raised interest rates last month for the fourth time in 2018, but forecast fewer rate hikes this year and signaled its tightening cycle is nearing an end in the face of financial market volatility and slowing global growth.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data.

In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Dec. 29. Data for the prior week was revised higher to show 5,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims increasing to 220,000 in the latest week.

The Labor Department said claims for California and Virginia were estimated last week. Unadjusted claims for both of those states declined last week.

A Labor Department official said there was no indication of an increase in filings last week from federal workers furloughed because of a partial shutdown of the government that is now in its second week.

Data on claims filed by federal employees is released with a one-week lag. The shutdown, which started on Dec. 22, was triggered by President Donald Trump’s demand for $5 billion in border wall funding.

Some 800,000 employees from the Departments of Homeland Security, Transportation, Commerce and others have been furloughed or are working without pay.

Claims data tends to be noisy around year-end holidays. The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, slipped 500 to 218,750 last week.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Wall Street set to open higher as post-Christmas rally continues

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 27, 2018. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

By Medha Singh

(Reuters) – Wall Street was set to open slightly higher on Friday, extending a two-day rally amid volatile trading and raising hopes that the recent selloff may have eased for now.

The three main index futures rose more than 1 percent before paring some gains.

At 8:38 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 0.43 percent. S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.38 percent and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 0.23 percent.

The final week of 2018 has seen wild swings in equities, with the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s main fear gauge, hitting its highest level since early February before easing slightly.

The benchmark S&P 500 tested its 20-month low early in the week and was at the brink of bear market territory before the three main indexes roared back with their biggest daily surge in nearly a decade on Wednesday and a late rally the following day.

On Thursday, the S&P fell as much as 2.8 percent but closed 0.8 percent higher as markets turned around late in the session.

In a sign of optimism on trade on Friday, China opened the door to imports of rice from the United States for the first time ever in the run-up to talks between the two countries in January.

“Yesterday’s reversal suggests the market has made a temporary bottom and we could probably rally well into the new year,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

“In spite of the government shutdown, the market seems more concerned on trade talks, which are somewhat lifting the negative sentiment.”

Stocks could swing between gains and losses due to the volatility but end-of-the-year window dressing and investors looking to buy stocks at attractive valuations should end in a positive session, Cardillo said.

Heavyweight technology names including Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc and Amazon.com  – which were among the biggest boosts to Wall Street’s rally on Thursday – rose more than 0.5 percent in premarket trading.

Of the 30 Dow components, 29 were trading higher.

The three indexes are set to end the week with gains of more than 3 percent each, snapping three straight weeks of steep losses.

Still, the indexes are down more than 9 percent for December and remain on track for their biggest annual percentage drop since 2008.

Investors head into 2019 with a list of worries ranging from U.S.-China trade tensions, rising interest rates and a cooling economy to a partial U.S. government shutdown, which is now in its sixth day.

(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

U.S. stocks attempt rebound

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 26, 2018. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

By Medha Singh

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks were attempting a modest rebound on Wednesday, boosted by technology shares and an Amazon-led jump in retailers, following four sessions of steep losses that pushed the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials near bear market territory.

After a strong start, the S&P and Dow swung between gains and losses. At its session low, the S&P hit a fresh 20-month low and came within two points of entering bear market territory, measured by a drop of more than 20 percent from a closing high.

The gains were led by technology stocks, which rose 1.49 percent. Their 9.2 percent slump in the past four sessions was the steepest among the 11 major S&P sectors, while the S&P 500 tumbled 7.7 percent.

Amazon.com Inc jumped 4.02 percent after reporting a “record-breaking” season. The stock was giving the biggest boost to the S&P and Nasdaq and led the consumer discretionary index up 1.49 percent.

But investors anxieties were far from gone. President Donald Trump renewed his attack on the Federal Reserve on Christmas, blaming it for the market slump.

Trump also said the U.S. government shutdown, now in its fifth day, would last until his demand for funds to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is met.

A little over 2,100 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq hit 52-week lows. That compares with at least 2,600 stocks breaching new lows in the past three sessions.

“The market doesn’t look so healthy. The concerns are government shutdown, the economy, the President – what time is he going to tweet out about Federal Reserve,” said Larry Benedict, founder of the Opportunistic Trader in Boca Raton, Florida.

“We’re seeing the same thing recently and it’s not really good. It opens up every day and it’s met by selling and it ends nearer the low or on the low than the high. For the market to make a bottom, you need a bit of capitulation or panic bottom.”

The S&P was up 24.41 points, or 1.04 percent, at 2,375.51, at 11:37 a.m. ET, a day after the Christmas holiday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 196.31 points, or 0.90 percent, at 21,988.51 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 98.42 points, or 1.59 percent, at 6,291.34.

Eight of the 11 S&P sectors were higher, with the defensive utilities. SPLRCU real estat and consumer staples flat to lower.

Energy stocks rose 1.8 percent as crude oil prices rebounded.

Retailers jumped 3.14 percent, led by Amazon after a Mastercard report showed U.S. holiday sales were the strongest in six years.

The heavy-weight FAANG group, Facebook Inc, Amazon, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Alphabet Inc, rose between 1 percent and 4 percent.

The S&P ended Monday 19.8 percent below its all-time closing high, with roughly three-fourths of its stocks already in a bear market.

The Dow finished Monday 18.9 percent lower than its closing high. The Nasdaq is already in bear market, along with the Dow Jones Transport Average and small-cap Russell 2000 index.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.70-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.89-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and 194 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded five new highs and 455 new lows.

(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

Health insurers, hospital operators fall as Obamacare ruled unconstitutional

FILE PHOTO: A sign on an insurance store advertises Obamacare in San Ysidro, San Diego, California, U.S., October 26, 2017. REUTERS/Mike Blake

(Reuters) – Shares of health insurers, hospitals, and healthcare companies fell in early trading on Monday, after a federal judge ruled the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, unconstitutional late last week.

The ACA, introduced by former U.S. President Barack Obama in 2010 to provide affordable healthcare to all Americans, mandates that all individuals have health insurance or pay a tax.

But on Friday, Texas District Judge Reed O’Connor agreed with a coalition of 20 states that a change in tax law last year eliminating a penalty for not having health insurance invalidated the entire Obamacare law.

Centene Corp fell 7.8 percent to $117.5, while Molina Healthcare slumped 10.1 percent to $118.4. The companies are among health insurers with exposure to ACA.

WellCare Health Plans and Anthem Inc declined 4.7 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

“While we are disappointed in the recent Northern District of Texas court’s ACA ruling, we recognize that this is a first step in what will be a lengthy appeals process,” Molina Healthcare said.

“Regardless, the ACA will remain in effect for 2019, and we are optimistic that it will remain in effect thereafter.”

Brokerage Evercore ISI said it expected no immediate impact from the ruling, calling it only a declaratory judgment and not an injunction.

Even in case of an eventual injunction, the defendants would certainly seek and most likely get a stay pending appeal, Evercore said.

Hospitals and healthcare services providers Community Health Systems, Tenet Healthcare Corp and HCA Healthcare Inc fell between 4 percent and 8 percent.

(Reporting by Manogna Maddipatla in Bengaluru)

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop to near 49-year low

FILE PHOTO: People wait in line to attend TechFair LA, a technology job fair, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 26, 2017. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits tumbled to near a 49-year low last week, which could ease concerns about a slowdown in the labor market and economy.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended Dec. 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Last week’s decline in claims was the largest since April 2015. Claims hit 202,000 in mid-September, which was the lowest level since December 1969.

Data for the prior week were revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 225,000 in the latest week. Claims shot up to an eight-month high of 235,000 during the week ended Nov. 24.

The Labor Department said only claims for Virginia were estimated last week.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,750 to 224,750 last week.

While difficulties adjusting the data around holidays likely boosted applications in prior weeks, there were concerns the labor market was losing some momentum given financial market volatility, the fading stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut and the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy.

Last week’s sharp drop in claims also suggests a slowdown in job growth in November was likely the result of worker shortages. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs after surging by 237,000 in October.

With the unemployment rate near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, Federal Reserve officials view the labor market as being at or beyond full employment.

The U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates at its Dec. 18-19 policy meeting. The Fed has hiked rates three times this year. Most economists expect the central bank will increase borrowing costs twice next year, although traders expect no more than one rate increase.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 25,000 to 1.67 million for the week ended Dec. 1.

The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims slipped 2,500 to 1.67 million.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Paul Simao)

Fed’s Powell: U.S. economy performing ‘very well’ though benefits uneven

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at his news conference after the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., June 13, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo/File Photo/File Photo

(Reuters) – The U.S. economy is “performing very well overall,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks prepared for the opening of a rural housing conference in Washington.

The job market in particular “by many national-level measures…is very strong,” with unemployment at a 50-year low, Powell said, capping a week of widespread market nervousness with a reminder that the U.S. economy continues to expand.

Powell’s brief prepared statement did not address monetary policy or the Fed’s upcoming meeting, at which the central bank will decide whether to raise interest rates and will also release new economic projections for the coming year.

Powell noted to the Housing Assistance Council, a nonprofit that focuses on rural housing issues, that the benefits of the ongoing recovery have not spread evenly around the country but have been concentrated in major cities.

“Some communities have yet to feel the full benefits of the ongoing expansion,” Powell said, with double-digit unemployment still the norm in more than two dozen counties and nearly a third of rural homes without broadband internet.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider in Indianapolis; editing by Diane Craft)

Deals lure U.S. Black Friday shoppers, biggest sales gains online

A large crowd of people shop during a Black Friday sales event at Macy's flagship store on 34th St. in New York City, U.S., November 22, 2018. REUTERS/Stephanie Keith

By Nandita Bose and Chriss Swaney

NEW YORK/PITTSBURGH (Reuters) – U.S. shoppers formed long lines at store checkout counters on Black Friday to snap up deep discounts on clothing and electronics, offering evidence that a healthy economy and rising wages are translating into stronger consumer spending at the start of retailers’ make-or-break holiday season.

“I am spending more, the mood generally is more upbeat,” said Sharon Neidert, 57, visiting New York City from Ohio. “My daughter moved out this year so I have more disposable income,” said Neidert, a manager at a software company.

People shop during the Black Friday sales shopping event at Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City, New York, U.S., November 23, 2018. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

People shop during the Black Friday sales shopping event at Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City, New York, U.S., November 23, 2018. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

While online sales were up substantially and traffic looked healthy at stores offering discounts, detailed numbers on brick-and-mortar holiday sales will not be available for several days.

“Overall, Black Friday doesn’t have the sense of urgency as in the past and feels more like a busy regular weekend day in many of the stores,” said Dana Telsey at Telsey Advisory Group.

“Many of the promotions were available for the past couple of weeks,” Telsey said. “We haven’t noticed desperation from any retailer.”

Shares of U.S. department stores Macy’s Inc, Kohl’s Corp, J.C. Penney Co Inc and Target Corp were all down between 1 and 3 percent on Friday and weighed on the broader S&P 500 retailing index, down 0.15 percent.

Investors are concerned that retail peaked in the second quarter and business will slow down as comparisons get tougher, said Brian Yarbrough, retail analyst with Edward Jones.

Victoria’s Secret owner L Brands, Walmart Inc and American Eagle Outfitters were some of the top gainers, rising between 0.5 to 3 percent.

STRONG ONLINE SALES

Shoppers spent $643 million online by 10 a.m. ET on Black Friday, with smartphone sales lifting overall online spending by 28 percent from a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks transactions at 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.

Online spending is on track to hit $6.4 billion on Friday, which is likely to either match or surpass last year’s Cyber Monday revenue of $6.6 billion, Adobe said. Online sales on Thanksgiving Day were up 28 percent at $3.7 billion.

The National Retail Federation forecast U.S. holiday retail sales in November and December will increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion to $720.89 billion. That compares with an average annual increase of 3.9 percent over the past five years.

About 38 percent of American consumers plan to shop on Black Friday, and six in 10 expect to make at least half of their holiday purchases on that day, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed last week.

DEAL FRENZY

Shoppers picked up big-ticket items such as TVs, Apple Inc, iPads and Watches at Target, while phones, toys, gaming consoles and cookware were top sellers at Walmart Inc.

Some of the deals:

– An H&M store in Manhattan offered 30 percent off everything in-store and online.

– Macy’s in Herald Square, Manhattan, sold a Coach designer wallet, originally $225, for $53.

– Midtown Comics was taking 25 percent off everything at its Manhattan locations until noon.

– An Eddie Bauer in Chicago offered 50 percent off all items.

– At a Chicago-area Pandora, which makes popular charm bracelets that can cost up to $1,000, jewelry was 35 percent off before 10 a.m. and 25 percent off for the remainder of the day.

– J Crew clothing was 50 percent off. Its site experienced some technical difficulties before coming back up.

– Walmart was selling a Google Home mini for $99.

– Buy one, get one free pajamas at Victoria’s Secret.

Charlotte Jackson, from London, come to New York with her mother for Black Friday shopping.

“Black Friday isn’t as big of a deal back home,” Jackson, a 27-year-old tax adviser, said while shopping for lingerie and pajamas at Victoria’s Secret.

MORE TOYS AT TARGET, JC PENNEY

Many retailers, reacting to the bankruptcy of the Toys ‘R’ Us chain, are catering to parents.

Target said in October it planned to dedicate nearly a quarter of a million square feet of new space to its toy business across 500 of its stores. The discount chain’s customers will also be able to shop for more than 2,500 new and exclusive toys, Mark Tritton, Target’s chief merchandising officer said.

“Toys ‘R’ Us had better quality for toys,” said Ashley Drew, 29, shopping for her 5-year-old daughter at a Los Angeles-area Walmart, next door to the empty shell of a Toys ‘R’ Us store.

Department store JC Penney Co Inc, known for its mid-priced apparel, has also made a push into toys.

Carolyn Pertette from Wilkinsburg, Pennsylvania, shopped in the early morning at the Waterfront Mall in Pittsburgh. She said she was upset about the closing of Toys ‘R’ Us.

“I’m concerned about where I’m going to get toys for the kids,” she said.

Shortly before 6 a.m. on Friday, shoppers were banging on the door at a Bath & Body Works in the Waterfront Mall in Pittsburgh, lining up for discounted candles, soaps, and lotion, while long lines formed at checkout counters in a Dick’s Sporting Goods store in the mall.

There was little evidence of the delirious shopper frenzy of Black Fridays from past years, in other parts of the country, especially the Northeast, where crowds were thin due to cold weather.

An Athleta clothing store in Tyson’s Corner, Virginia, provided hot chocolate with marshmallows to women in line for the dressing room.

(Additional reporting by Shannon Stapleton in Long Island, Lewis Krauskopf, Jennifer Ablan and Anna Irrera in New York, Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles, Siddharth Cavale in Bangalore; Writing by Nick Zieminski; editing by Patrick Graham, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Bill Rigby)

U.S. retail sales rebound on autos, building materials

FILE PHOTO: A woman walks with shopping bags at Bryant Park in New York, U.S. December 2, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in October as purchases of motor vehicles and building materials surged, likely driven by recovery efforts in areas devastated by Hurricane Florence.

The report on Thursday from the Commerce Department also showed broad gains in sales ahead of the holiday shopping season, which bodes well for consumer spending and the overall economy as the fourth quarter gets underway.

Sales could also get a boost from declining oil prices, which are expected to lead to cheaper gasoline.

“The consumer has the wind at their backs and with gasoline prices falling at the pump, we expect even more spending in the next couple of months,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Retail sales increased 0.8 percent last month. But data for September was revised down to show sales slipping 0.1 percent instead of rising 0.1 percent. August sales were also weaker than previously thought.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales increasing 0.5 percent in October. Sales rose 4.6 percent from a year ago.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

Data for September was revised lower to show core retail sales rising 0.3 percent instead of gaining 0.5 percent as previously reported. August core retail sales were also revised down to show them falling 0.2 percent instead of being unchanged.

While that suggests some loss of momentum in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, consumption remains underpinned by a strong labor market, characterized by a 3.7 percent unemployment rate.

The lowest unemployment rate in nearly 49 years is boosting wages, with annual wage growth recording its biggest increase in 9-1/2 years in October. Jobs market strength was underscored by a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing a marginal increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week.

“Solid job growth and wage increases are the main sources of support for consumer spending and so far, so good,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Strong domestic demand and a tightening labor market support views that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December for the fourth time this year. The U.S. central bank last Thursday kept rates unchanged, but noted that data “indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.”

The dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies after Thursday’s data, while U.S. Treasury yields fell.

BROAD GAINS

The trend in retail sales, if sustained, could keep the economy on a solid growth path even as business investment is slowing, the trade deficit is expected to deteriorate further and the housing market continues to weaken.

The government reported last month that consumer spending expanded at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the third quarter. Given the downward revisions to core retail sales in August and September, the third-quarter consumer spending estimate is likely to be lowered when the government publishes its second estimate of gross domestic product later this month.

While the Commerce Department said it could not isolate the impact of Hurricane Florence, which lashed North and South Carolina in mid-September, on the retail sales, the storm probably boosted purchases of automobiles and building materials last month.

Auto sales jumped 1.1 percent last month likely as residents in areas affected by Florence replaced damaged cars. Auto sales fell 0.1 percent in September. Sales at building material stores surged 1.0 percent in October.

There were also increases in sales at clothing stores, online retailers and service stations last month. Americans also spent more on hobbies and at bookstores, while cutting back on furniture purchases.

But spending at restaurants and bars slipped 0.2 percent, likely hurt by Hurricane Michael, which soaked the Florida Panhandle in mid-October. Sales at restaurants and bars dropped 1.5 percent in September.

Other data on Thursday offered a mixed picture of the manufacturing sector in early November. The New York Fed said its Empire State general business conditions index rose to a reading of 23.3 this month from 21.1 in October.

A slight moderation in the new orders index was offset by strong increases in labor market measures.

Separately, a survey from the Philadelphia Fed showed a slowing in factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region this month, with its current general activity index tumbling to a reading of 12.9 from 22.2 in October amid a sharp slowdown in new orders.

Firms, however, remained upbeat about business conditions over the next six months. There was also a strong improvement in capital expenditure plans.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Two years in, Trump holds stock market bragging rights

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on the eve of the U.S. mid-term elections at the Show Me Center in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, U.S., November 5, 2018. REUTERS/Carlos Barria  

By Noel Randewich

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump has taken credit for the stock market’s gains during his nearly two years in the White House, and those claims are reasonable given the impact of tax cuts and pro-business policies on investor sentiment.

The S&P 500 has risen 28 percent since Trump’s election in November 2016 to the eve of congressional midterm elections on Tuesday. This surpasses the market’s performance over the same time frame under any other president in the past 64 years. Under President Dwight Eisenhower, the S&P 500 rose 29 percent from his election in November 1952 through November 1954.

Sweeping corporate tax cuts, an initiative driven by Trump, supercharged U.S. companies’ earnings and helped lift the cash-rich technology sector. The Republican party last year passed the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in over 30 years, boosting U.S. corporate earnings.

Still, other sectors that could have been expected to benefit strongly from a Trump presidency have lagged. Indeed, the individual stocks that have gained and lost the most during his reign have little discernable link to Trump’s presidency.

How the market shakes out in the final two years of Trump’s presidency will probably be influenced by Tuesday’s elections. Analysts expect pressure on stocks if Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives and a sharper downward reaction if they sweep the House and Senate.

On the contrary, if Republicans hold their ground, stocks could gain further, with hopes of more tax reform ahead.

Trump’s strong stock market record has been maintained even after a recent pullback on Wall Street as worries about trade battles, inflation, and rising interest rates have increased caution among investors. Starting in 2010 under President Barack Obama as the world recovered from the financial crisis, the S&P 500 has enjoyed its longest bull market in history.

With more than half of Trump’s presidency still to come, how the market will perform over his whole term is unknown. Democratic President Bill Clinton saw the S&P 500 triple during his two terms in the White House.

Average S&P 500 company earnings per share are on track to rise 24 percent this year, the strongest annual gain in eight years, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Investor confidence stemming from the tax cuts and Trump’s other business-friendly policies so far have more than made up for ongoing worries on Wall Street that his trade conflict with China is hurting the U.S. economy, and that it could become worse.

The tax cuts also led Apple and other multinationals in the technology sector to repatriate billions of dollars in profits held overseas, some of which went toward buying back stock and sending Wall Street higher.

The S&P 500 information technology index has gained 51 percent since Trump’s election. Financials, which benefited from Trump’s deregulation of the banking industry, have climbed 34 percent since Nov 8, 2016.

Still, some companies that had been expected to boom under Trump have fared poorly. The S&P 500 energy index is flat since Trump’s election, even though crude prices rose over 50 percent during that time and despite Trump putting the brakes on Obama-era policies aimed at reducing the country’s reliance on oil.

Semiconductors have fared better than any other industry group, even though they are highly exposed to China and could become casualties in Trump’s trade war with Beijing.

Along with telecommunications, food and tobacco companies, automakers on average have fared worst among 27 industry group’s since Trump’s election. General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co have been wrestling for years with tepid global demand, with recent signs of a deep slowdown in China.

Industry groups are more detailed categories than the 11 sectors widely tracked on the stock market.

Interest rates, economic growth, company earnings and inflation are widely viewed as strong influences on stock prices, making who holds power in Washington just one of many factors affecting investor sentiment.

Abiomed Inc, the S&P 500’s top performer since Trump’s election, has jumped over 260 percent, helped in part by the success of its Impella heart pumps.

General Electric’s 68 percent loss makes it the S&P 500’s worst performer since Trump was elected. The former industrial powerhouse has foundered in several key markets in recent years and is aggressively cutting costs and selling businesses.

(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Editing by Megan Davies and Cynthia Osterman)