Important Takeaways:

• The IDF said that they carried out an airstrike after gunmen opened fire toward IDF soldiers in southern Syria. “This morning (Tuesday), IDF troops identified several terrorists who opened fire toward them in southern Syria. The troops returned fire in response and the IAF struck the terrorists. Hits were identified,” the IDF said.
• This is an escalation along the border. The fact that there were several gunmen involved on the Syrian side could mean that threats are emerging near the border. The IDF took over a buffer zone along the border on December 8 when the Syrian regime fell. Israel’s Prime Minister has said that southern Syria must be demilitarized. Israeli politicians and officials have threatened the new government of Syria in the last two months. There have been numerous IDF strikes in Syria as well. The latest strikes targeted the T-4 air base near Palmyra which is not in southern Syria but rather in the Syrian desert.
• This is a sensitive area. It is also an area that is far from Damascus and hard for the new Syrian government to control. With Israel’s warnings to Damascus, it seems unlikely the new Syrian government will be able to control these areas with many forces, leaving a power vacuum.
• It’s not clear if elements linked to the former groups that operated in Yarmouk basin have now re-appeared. Israel’s demand that the area be demilitarized seems to mean that a vacuum in power will emerge. When there is a vacuum then many threats will enter the area. That is the problem in southern Lebanon and also in Gaza and the northern West Bank. In all these areas there are terrorists who have emerged.

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