U.S. economy slows in the fourth-quarter; consumer spending remains bright spot

A man pushes his shopping cart down an aisle at a Home Depot store in New York, July 29, 2010. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter as previously reported, with robust consumer spending offset by downward revisions to business and government investment.

Gross domestic product rose at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2016, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday in its second estimate for the period. That matched the estimate published last month.

Output increased at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter.

The economy grew 1.6 percent for all of 2016, its worst performance since 2011, after expanding 2.6 percent in 2015.

Economic data early in the first quarter has been mixed, with retail sales rising in January but homebuilding and business spending on capital goods easing.

The economy may get a boost from President Donald Trump’s proposed stimulus package of sweeping tax cuts and infrastructure spending as well as less regulations.

Trump, who pledged during last year’s election campaign to deliver 4 percent annual GDP growth, has promised a “phenomenal” tax plan that the White House said would include tax cuts for businesses and individuals.

Details on the proposal remain vague, though Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that Trump would use a policy speech to Congress on Tuesday night to preview some aspects of his tax reform plans.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected fourth-quarter GDP would be revised up to a 2.1 percent rate.

U.S. Treasury prices rose after the data, while the dollar <.DXY> dipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. stock index futures were largely unchanged.

CONSUMER SPENDING JUMPS

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was revised sharply higher to a 3.0 percent rate of growth in the fourth quarter. It was previously reported to have risen at a 2.5 percent rate.

That meant private domestic demand increased at a 3.0 percent rate, faster than the 2.8 percent pace reported last month.

Some of the rise in demand was met with imports, which increased at a 8.5 percent rate rather than the 8.3 percent pace reported last month. Exports declined, leaving a trade deficit that subtracted 1.70 percentage point from GDP growth as previously reported.

There was a small downward revision to inventory investment. Businesses accumulated inventories at a rate of $46.2 billion in the last quarter, instead of the previously reported $48.7 billion. Inventory investment added 0.94 percentage points to GDP growth, down from the 1.0 percentage point estimated last month.

Business investment was revised lower to reflect a more modest pace of spending on equipment, which increased at a 1.9 percent rate instead of the previously estimated 3.1 percent pace. That was still the first increase in over a year and reflected a surge in gas and oil well drilling in line with rising crude oil prices.

Spending on mining exploration, wells and shafts increased at a 23.6 percent rate instead of the previously reported 24.3 percent pace. It declined at a 30.0 percent pace in the third quarter.

Investment in nonresidential structures was revised to show it falling at a less steep 4.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter. It was previously reported to have declined at a 5.0 percent rate. Overall, business investment contributed 0.17 percentage point to GDP growth, less than the 0.30 percentage reported last month.

Spending on residential construction increased at a 9.6 percent rate, which was downwardly revised from the 10.2 percent pace reported last month. The rebound followed two straight quarterly declines.

Government spending increased at a 0.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter, rather than the previously reported 1.2 percent pace of growth. As a result, government investment made no contribution to growth. It was previously reported to have contributed 0.21 percentage point.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Dow hits 12th record high close; Trump talks up infrastructure spending

Leaf Group CEO Sean Moriarty (4th L) stands amongst Leaf Group management and board members for the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S.

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks ended slightly higher on Monday and the Dow closed at a record high for a 12th straight session, as President Donald Trump said he would make a “big” infrastructure statement on Tuesday.

The Dow’s streak of record-high closes matches a 12-day run in 1987, with Boeing and UnitedHealth among the biggest boosts for the Dow on Monday. The S&P 500 also closed at a record high. Energy gave the biggest boost to the S&P 500, with the energy index up 0.9 percent.

Trump, who met with state governors at the White House, also said he is seeking what he called a “historic” increase in military spending of more than 9 percent, while he said his administration would be “moving quickly” on regulatory reforms.

The comments came ahead of Trump’s first address to a joint session of Congress Tuesday evening. Investors are looking for more specifics on Trump’s plans, given the hefty gains in the market since the Nov. 8 election.

“Things are moving along in terms of the Trump agenda, but we’ll get a clearer picture after tomorrow night so that might precipitate some buying or selling,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&amp;T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

Hellwig and others said there’s potentially more upside than downside from the address, given how the market has reacted in recent weeks.

Shares of U.S. defense companies – Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin – rose after Trump said he would seek to boost Pentagon spending by $54 billion in his first budget proposal.

Boeing was up 1.1 percent while UnitedHealth was up 1.4 percent.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 15.68 points, or 0.08 percent, to close at 20,837.44, the S&P 500 gained 2.39 points, or 0.10 percent, to 2,369.73 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.59 points, or 0.28 percent, to 5,861.90.

In its 1987 12-day streak of record-high closes, the Dow rose 9.2 percent compared with just a 3.9 percent gain in the recent record run.

While the S&amp;P 500 is up 10.8 percent since the Nov. 8 election, the pace of the rally has slowed this year.

Trump’s promise a few weeks ago of a “phenomenal” tax announcement helped rekindle the post-election rally, driving the main U.S. markets to record highs.

Time Warner ended up 0.9 percent after news that the head of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission does not expect to review AT&T Inc’s planned $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner.

AT&T slipped 1.3 percent.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.55-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.87-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 63 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 143 new highs and 45 new lows.

(Additional reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and James Dalgleish)

Trump meets insurers, promises catastrophic year for Obamacare

Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price (C) and Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini (R) listen to U.S. President Donald Trump speak during a meeting with health insurance company CEOs at the White House in Washington, U.S.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump told several chief executives of large insurance companies on Monday that 2017 will be a “catastrophic” year for the Affordable Care Act as he seeks to make good on a campaign promise to repeal the measure.

The Republican president told the insurers they must all work together to save Americans from the law known as Obamacare and try to bring down health care prices. He said he hoped to work with Democrats on a health care plan to repeal the law, which provided coverage for millions of uninsured Americans.

(Reporting by Steve Holland; Writing by Doina Chiacu)

World stock markets and U.S. dollar retreat before key Trump speech

Men walk past an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan,

By Sinead Carew

NEW YORK (Reuters) – World stock markets and the U.S. dollar fell on Monday while U.S. Treasury yields rose amid investor caution ahead of a key speech by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The dollar fell ahead of Trump’s State of the Union address, during which he is expected to unveil details on pro-growth policies including infrastructure spending.

“There is setting up for what people expect might be at least a focus on things like fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending of some kind, that might actually boost risk and cause yields to rise,” said Aaron Kohli, an interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

U.S. 10-year Treasury notes were last down 7/32 in price to yield 2.342 percent, from a yield of 2.317 percent late Friday. Two-year notes US2YT=RR were last down 1/32 in price to yield 1.169 percent, from a yield of 1.145 percent late Friday.

The dollar was down 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies after Trump said Monday that tax reform details would not be revealed until after the administration’s proposal on health care.

Investors had hoped for “more clarity around tax reform sooner rather than later” said Bipan Rai, senior macroeconomic strategist at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

At 11:25 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 5.62 points, or 0.03 percent, at 20,816.14, the S&P 500 shed 0.2 points, or 0.01 percent, to 2,367.14, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.63 points, or 0.03 percent, to 5,846.93.

Europe’s benchmark index of leading 300 shares fell 0.1 percent.

MSCI’s benchmark world stock index slipped 0.03 percent after it hit a record high Thursday.

A proposed 29 billion euro merger between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse to create Europe’s biggest stock exchange looked dead in the water due to an inability to meet European antitrust demands. Shares in both companies fell. The London Stock Exchange fell as much as 3 percent while Deutsche Boerse fell as much as 4 percent.

“The regulatory hurdles were always a risk, and with Brexit, there are additional hurdles to clear that seem close to insurmountable now,” said Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.24 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 percent for its lowest close since Feb. 9 on concerns that a stronger yen would crimp corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average scaled its 11th consecutive record high on Friday, the longest such run since 1987, leading some to suggest it could be prone for a correction.

In Europe, the focus was on France, where the latest polls showed that centrist Emmanuel Macron would score a more convincing victory over far-right and anti-euro Marine Le Pen in the presidential election’s runoff vote.

France’s 10-year bond yield fell to a one-month low of 0.88 percent.

In commodities, Brent crude was up 0.3 percent at $56.14 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.4 percent at $54.20 per barrel as a global supply glut appeared to ease.

(Additional Reporting by Jamie McGeever and Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

After anti-Trump protests, the president’s fans organize their own rallies

Supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump wave U.S. flags during a "United Voices" rally hosted by United Talent Agency in Beverly Hills, California U.S

By Jonathan Allen

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump are holding rallies in towns and cities across the country on Monday, partly as a rebuttal to waves of anti-Trump protests that have taken place since the Republican’s election last November.

Trump is not scheduled to appear at any of this week’s rallies, which are being held in cities small and large, from coast to coast. The venues range from a park in the small town of Gravette, Arkansas, to the plaza outside the Georgia State Capitol building in downtown Atlanta.

Some of the rally organizers came out of the Tea Party movement, a large informal network of anti-establishment conservatives that has become an increasingly powerful force in Republican politics since its beginnings in 2009.

A group called Main Street Patriots said it helped organize so-called Spirit of America rallies in at least 33 of the 50 states, both on Monday and Saturday.

“Unlike those protesting against President Trump’s vision, we are a diverse coalition that are the heart and soul of America that wants our nation to fulfill our potential, as the greatest nation on God’s green earth!” organizers wrote on the group’s website.

“Blue-collar voters helped propel President Trump to victory and these rallies will help provide those forgotten voices a mechanism so they can be heard,” they said.

Raucous rallies, often filling sports arenas, became a hallmark of Trump’s 17-month presidential campaign, in contrast with lower-key events staged by his main rival, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s candidate.

Last weekend, Trump rekindled that campaign energy for the first time since his election in a characteristically freewheeling rally in Melbourne, Florida.

But Trump’s crowds have rarely regrouped since November’s election, while large protests by people who opposed Trump’s policies, particularly his crackdown on immigration, have become a frequent occurrence in the country’s cities.

Among the biggest was the Women’s March on Washington on Jan. 21, where attendance far exceeded the crowds who attended Trump’s inauguration the previous day.

Betty Blanco, who is organizing the Spirit of America rally in Denver, was in Washington for the women’s march. She said she was saddened by what she saw.

“I had the opportunity to ride on the subway with the women marchers,” she said in a telephone interview. “They were excited, they were happy, but I never heard them talking about women’s rights, but I did hear them trashing Trump, and I got the idea they were just mad because they lost the election.”

The retired schoolteacher, who now writes children’s books and runs a local Tea Party affiliate, said the pro-Trump rallies would be more respectful, even if they might not prove quite as large.

“I don’t know that you’ll see those big, gigantic, hundreds of thousands of people like the Women’s March,” said Rob Maness, a 55-year-old former Air Force colonel in New Orleans helping organize the nationwide effort. “I think they’ll be smaller, patriotic, peaceful – those kind of things.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Allen; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Mexico warns it will end NAFTA talks if U.S. proposes tariffs

Mexico's Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo delivers a speech during a "Made in Mexico" event in Mexico City, Mexico,

(Reuters) – Mexico’s economy minister Ildefonso Guajardo warned that his country will break off negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) if the United States were to propose tariffs on products from Mexico, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

“The moment that they say, ‘We’re going to put a 20 percent tariff on cars,’ I get up from the table,” Guajardo told Bloomberg in an interview.

U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to scuttle NAFTA, the 1994 trade accord which also includes Canada, if he cannot recast it to benefit U.S. interests, raising the risk of a major economic shock for Mexico.

Mexico, which is preparing to discuss changes to some trade rules under the NAFTA, has however expressed confidence that Trump will not be able to impose harsh barriers on imports anytime soon.

Mexican officials expect talks to start in June, Bloomberg reported.

Trump spoke positively about a border adjustment tax being pushed by Republicans in Congress as a way to boost exports in an interview with Reuters last week.

Trump has sent conflicting signals about his position on the border adjustment tax in separate media interviews last month, saying in one interview that it was “too complicated” and in another that it was still on the table.

The White House and the Mexican government were not immediately available for comment.

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Sai Sachin Ravikumar)

Trump wants to make sure U.S. nuclear arsenal at ‘top of the pack’

U.S. President Donald Trump pauses during an an interview with Reuters in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., February 23, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

By Steve Holland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wants to ensure the U.S. nuclear arsenal is at the “top of the pack,” saying the United States has fallen behind in its weapons capacity.

In a Reuters interview, Trump also said China could solve the national security challenge posed by North Korea “very easily if they want to,” ratcheting up pressure on Beijing to exert more influence to rein in Pyongyang’s increasingly bellicose actions.

Trump also expressed support for the European Union as a governing body, saying “I’m totally in favor of it,” and for the first time as president expressed a preference for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but said he would be satisfied with whatever makes the two sides happy.

Trump also predicted his efforts to pressure NATO allies to pay more for their own defense and ease the burden on the U.S. budget would reap dividends. “They owe a lot of money,” he said.

In his first comments about the U.S. nuclear arsenal since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump was asked about a December tweet in which he said the United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capacity “until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.”

Trump said in the interview he would like to see a world with no nuclear weapons but expressed concern that the United States has “fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity.”

“I am the first one that would like to see … nobody have nukes, but we’re never going to fall behind any country even if it’s a friendly country, we’re never going to fall behind on nuclear power.

“It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, we’re going to be at the top of the pack,” Trump said.

Russia has 7,000 warheads and the United States, 6,800, according to the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-nuclear group.

“Russia and the United States have far more weapons than is necessary to deter nuclear attack by the other or by another nuclear-armed country,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the independent Arms Control Association non-profit group.

The new strategic arms limitation treaty, known as New START, between the United States and Russia requires that by February 5, 2018, both countries must limit their arsenals of strategic nuclear weapons to equal levels for 10 years.

The treaty permits both countries to have no more than 800 deployed and non-deployed land-based intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers and heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear weapons, and contains equal limits on other nuclear weapons.

Analysts have questioned whether Trump wants to abrogate New START or would begin deploying other warheads.

In the interview, Trump called New START “a one-sided deal.”

“Just another bad deal that the country made, whether it’s START, whether it’s the Iran deal … We’re going to start making good deals,” he said.

“WE’RE VERY ANGRY”

The United States is in the midst of a $1 trillion, 30-year modernization of its aging ballistic missile submarines, bombers and land-based missiles.

Trump also complained that the Russian deployment of a ground-based cruise missile is in violation of a 1987 treaty that bans land-based American and Russian intermediate-range missiles.

“To me it’s a big deal,” said Trump, who has held out the possibility of warmer U.S. relations with Russia.

Asked if he would raise the issue with Putin, Trump said he would do so “if and when we meet.” He said he had no meetings scheduled as of yet with Putin.

Speaking from behind his desk in the Oval Office, Trump expressed concern about North Korea’s ballistic missile tests and said accelerating a missile defense system for U.S. allies Japan and South Korea was among many options available.

“There’s talks of a lot more than that,” Trump said, when asked about the missile defense system. “We’ll see what happens. But it’s a very dangerous situation, and China can end it very quickly in my opinion.”

China has made clear that it opposes North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and has repeatedly called for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a return to negotiations between Pyongyang and world powers.

But efforts to change Pyongyang’s behavior through sanctions have historically failed, largely because of China’s fear that severe measures could trigger a collapse of the North Korean state and send refugees streaming across their border.

Trump’s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier this month in Florida was interrupted by a ballistic missile launch by North Korea.

Trump did not completely rule out possibly meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at some point in the future under certain circumstances but suggested it might be too late.

“It’s very late. We’re very angry at what he’s done, and frankly this should have been taken care of during the Obama administration,” he said.

According to Japanese news reports, the Japanese government plans to start debate over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, and the land-based Aegis Ashore missile defense system to improve its capability to counter North Korean ballistic missiles.

The strength of Trump’s remarks in favor of the EU took some Brussels officials by surprise after his support for Britain’s vote last summer to exit from the EU.

“I’m totally in favor of it,” Trump said of the EU. “I think it’s wonderful. If they’re happy, I’m in favor of it.”

Statements by him and others in his administration have suggested to Europeans that he sees little value in the Union as such, which Trump last month called a “vehicle for Germany.”

(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton, Emily Stephenson, John Walcott, Matt Spetalnick, Arshad Mohammed and David Brunnstrom in Washington and Alastair Macdonald in Brussels; editing by Ross Colvin)

Trump supports free press but will call out false reports

U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions during a news conference at the White House in Washington, U.S.

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump believes in a free and independent press but he will not hesitate to point out flawed reporting, the U.S Vice President Mike Pence said on Monday.

“Rest assured the president and I both strongly support a free and independent press but you can anticipate that the president and all of us will continue to call out the media when they play fast and loose with the facts,” Pence told a news conference at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“When the media gets it wrong, President Trump will take his case straight to the American people to set the record straight,” he added.

(Reporting by Robert-Jan Bartunek; editing by Philip Blenkinsop)

Norway pledges $10 million to counter Trumps global anti abortion move

Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg, attends the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland,

OSLO (Reuters) – Norway has joined an international initiative to raise millions of dollars to replace shortfalls left by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ban on U.S.-funded groups worldwide providing information on abortion.

In January, the Netherlands started a global fund to help women access abortion services, saying Trump’s “global gag rule” meant a funding gap of $600 million over the next four years, and has pledged $10 million to the initiative to replace that.

Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, Luxembourg, Finland, Canada and Cape Verde have all also lent their support.

“The government is increasing its support for family planning and safe abortion by 85 million Norwegian crowns ($10 million) compared with 2016,” Prime Minister Erna Solberg said.

“At a time when this agenda has come under pressure, a joint effort is particularly important,” he said in a statement.

Last month, Trump reinstated a policy requiring overseas organizations that receive U.S. family-planning funds to certify they do not perform abortions or provide abortion advice as a method of family planning.

(Reporting by Gwladys Fouche; Editing by Louise Ireland)

Russia tells White House it will not return Crimea to Ukraine

Submarine in Crimea

By Andrew Osborn

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia said on Wednesday it would not hand back Crimea to Ukraine or discuss the matter with foreign partners after the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump expected the annexed Black Sea peninsula to be returned.

Moscow says an overwhelming majority of Crimeans voted to become part of Russia in a 2014 referendum wanting protection from what the Kremlin cast as an illegal coup in Kiev.

Ukraine says the referendum was a sham held at gunpoint after Russian troops illegally annexed the peninsula, that Russia-friendly president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted by people power, and that Moscow should return Crimea.

“We don’t give back our own territory. Crimea is territory belonging to the Russian Federation,” Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, told a news briefing on Wednesday.

The 2014 annexation prompted the United States and the European Union to impose sanctions on Russia, plunging Western relations with the Kremlin to their worst level since the Cold War.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer said on Tuesday that Trump expected and wanted to get along with Russia, but was expecting Moscow to hand Crimea back.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked about Spicer’s comments, said President Vladimir Putin had already explained why Crimeans had turned to Russia.

“The theme of returning Crimea will not be discussed … Russia does not discuss its territorial integrity with foreign partners,” Peskov told a conference call with reporters.

Trump had not raised the Crimean issue in a Jan. 28 phone call with Putin, Peskov noted, saying the Kremlin would try to make contacts with the Trump administration to try to improve ties which he said were in “a lamentable state.”

Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, told MPs any talk of Crimea’s status amounted to a challenge to Russia’s territorial integrity.

Volodin, a close Putin ally, told the Interfax news agency Trump had promised in his election campaign to work to improve relations with Russia.

“Let’s wait for some first-hand words from the U.S. president,” said Volodin. “When people get elected by voters it’s not merely for warm words and the ability to speak, but for concrete promises … that will be fulfilled.”

(Additional reporting by Maria Tsvetkova/ Alessandra Prentice; editing by John Stonestreet)