Important Takeaways:
- The minister, Andrei Belousov, delivered this stark warning during a high-stakes meeting with Belarusian defense officials in Minsk. “The increasing involvement of Western countries in the conflict in Ukraine creates global risks,” he declared. “The desire to inflict maximum damage on Russia could lead to a direct military clash between nuclear powers.” This statement is one of Russia’s clearest indications yet that it views the Ukraine conflict as a potential flashpoint for global warfare, particularly as NATO members continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and military aid.
- Belousov’s remarks have raised fears that Russia may resort to using nuclear weapons in response to any attack on Belarus, its closest military ally. “Changes in the military-political situation have necessitated the clarification of the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence,” Belousov stated, hinting at a possible nuclear retaliation if Belarus is threatened. He added that Moscow is adapting its defense strategies to new global realities, heightening concerns that the Ukraine war could spiral into a wider and more catastrophic conflict.
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Important Takeaways:
- South Korea warned Tuesday it could consider supplying weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea allegedly dispatching troops to Russia, as both North Korea and Russia denied the movements. NATO’s secretary general said that would mark a “significant escalation.”
- South Korean officials worry that Russia may reward North Korea by giving it sophisticated weapons technologies that can boost the North’s nuclear and missile programs that target South Korea.
- The officials agreed to take phased countermeasures, linking the level of their responses to progress in Russian-North Korean military cooperation, according to the statement.
- Possible steps include diplomatic, economic and military options, and South Korea could consider sending both defensive and offensive weapons to Ukraine, a senior South Korean presidential official told reporters on condition of anonymity in a background briefing.
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Important Takeaways:
- “Xi said the military should ‘comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities,’ CCTV reported,” according to the AFP and reported on Barrons Saturday.
- The drills were accompanied by China declaring the possibility of invading and taking over Taiwan.
- “China’s communist leaders have insisted they will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control,” Barrons said on Saturday.
- Days after the Sino naval drills around Taiwan, the Chinese military criticized the U.S. and Canada for sending warships through the Taiwan Strait as the two power blocks exercise show-of-force operations in the region.
- The recent directive by Jinping builds upon a similar order he dictated in 2023, a call for stronger military combat readiness, as well as echoes the ruler’s directives in 2018 to prepare for war.
- The recent war escalation with China follows escalations with Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran.
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Important Takeaways:
- South Korea’s foreign ministry called the Russian ambassador to the carpet Monday over North Korea’s alleged deployments of troops to join the Russian military in its war against Ukraine.
- The use of North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict is a violation of the U.N. charter and General Assembly resolutions and threatens South Korea’s security, the ministry said in a statement.
- “We condemn North Korea’s illegal military cooperation, including its dispatch of troops to Russia, in the strongest terms,” Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun told Ambassador Georgy Zinoviev, the ministry said. “We will respond jointly with the international community by mobilizing all available means against acts that threaten our core security interests.”
- South Korea’s intelligence service said on Friday that North Korea had shipped 1,500 special forces to train at Russian military bases in the Far East. The troops would likely be deployed to fight in Ukraine, the spy agency said.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also accused North Korea of sending 10,000 troops to Russia.
- Zinoviev countered that Russian cooperation with North Korea was in line with international law, and was not directed against South Korea, according to a Facebook post from the Russian embassy.
- Reports that Russia will deploy North Korean troops in its war with Ukraine are unconfirmed. The Kremlin earlier denied them.
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Important Takeaways:
- Reports from Kyiv say 10,000 North Korean troops are undergoing training in Russia’s Far East and could be used to fight in Ukraine.
- The account of North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia is the latest sign of tightening security ties between two prime U.S. adversaries. Last week, unconfirmed reports said a Ukrainian missile strike killed six North Korean officers in the raging war with Russia across Ukraine’s occupied southern and eastern regions.
- A South Korean military official told the Yonhap News Agency that the reports were being “closely monitored.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is ‘the most concrete threat to regional and global peace’ says Erdoğan
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told local media on Saturday that Russia, Iran and Syria should do more to protect Syria’s “territorial integrity.”
- “It is essential that Russia, Iran and Syria take more effective measures against this situation, which poses the greatest threat to Syria’s territorial integrity,” Erdoğan said when asked about the recent alleged Israeli airstrike in the nation’s capital, Damascus.
- Shortly after the Hamas invasion and massacre of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the Turkish president canceled a planned trip to Israel and refused to condemn Hamas.
- “Hamas is not a terror organization,” Erdoğan said at the time. “It is waging a battle for its land.”
- In November, Erdoğan slammed Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “the butcher of Gaza.”
- In May 2024, at Erdoğan’s urging, Turkey announced that it was halting all trade with Israel. That same month, it announced it would join South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice at The Hague.
- The country also sent its intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, to Doha, Qatar to meet with Ismail Haniyeh, then the political leader of Hamas.
- In July, Erdoğan appeared to threaten an invasion of Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza during a party speech.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iran’s president on Friday, at a time when Tehran is supplying weapons for Moscow’s war in Ukraine and concerns are growing over escalating attacks between Israel and Iran and its militant allies.
- “We have many opportunities now, and we must help each other in our relationships. Our principles, our positions in the international arena are similar to yours,” Pezeshkian said at the start of his meeting with Putin.
- Pezeshkian said that Israel’s “savage attacks,” on Lebanon are “beyond description.”
- Both countries were accused this week by Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency MI5, of carrying out a “staggering” rise in attempts at assassination, sabotage and other crimes on U.K. soil.
- McCallum said his agents and police have tackled 20 “potentially lethal” plots backed by Iran since 2022 and warned that it could expand its targets in the U.K. if conflicts in the Middle East deepen.
- Speaking Friday as the forum opened, Putin said he wants to create a “new world order” of Moscow’s allies to counter the West, according to video provided by the Kremlin`
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Important Takeaways:
- Before the Russian invasion in early 2022, Ukraine was exporting about 6.5 million tonnes of grain overseas every month, according to figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, bringing in revenues of $27.8bn for the year 2021. It was the world’s seventh-largest exporter of wheat and fourth-biggest exporter of barley, according to the Foreign Agriculture Service of the US Department of Agriculture.
- Grain exports had fallen to just over 2 million tonnes per month in mid-2023, just over a year into the war.
- The reasoning behind Moscow’s targeting of grain-exporting ships was not yet clear.
- Russia may be emboldened by its recent gains in Donbas, or it may be seeking retaliation for Ukraine’s surprise attack across the border in the region of Kursk
- It may also simply be looking for new ways to weaken Ukraine. “If you can weaken Ukraine economically, that reduces its ability to resist,” Gorenburg said.
- Rather than targeting ports, the “intimidation of commercial shippers is a much better way to do that”.
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Important Takeaways:
- The country’s adversaries are stepping up efforts to influence the U.S. election, including down-ballot races, intelligence officials told the press on Monday.
- Officials said China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba have sought to “launder their narratives” into election discourse, as well as aggravate divisions among Americans through hot-button issues such as immigration.
- Though four weeks remain before Election Day, more than 16 million Americans had requested mail-in ballots or opted for early in-person voting as of Tuesday, according to an NBC News poll sourced from state officials and market research firm TargetSmart.
- One official said agencies have been privately briefing candidates for president, congress and local elections about foreign influence efforts.
- More of these notifications have already been carried out than during any past election, according to another official, who said suspected cases of foreign influence campaigns against public officials have seen a “more than threefold increase.”
- China-linked actors were said to have directly interfered in “tens” of down-ballot races, particularly when it comes to issues that most concern the Chinese Communist Party, Reuters reported.
- Russia and Iran have been focused on shaping the views of the U.S. electorate,” the intelligence officials said.
- Moscow’s efforts have reportedly been to drive down support for Ukraine, which is struggling against invading Russian forces in the eastern part of the country. Iran has been covertly seeking to drum up support for Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, according to officials.
- They believe Cuba has concentrated on giving a boost to its preferred candidates by swaying Spanish-speaking voters on social media.
- The news follows a report released last month by social network analysis firm Graphika that detailed a Chinese “spamouflage” operation attempting to sow division in U.S. social media spaces through fake accounts.
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Important Takeaways:
- As the war in Ukraine enters a critical period, the European Union has decided it must take responsibility for what it sees as a security threat in its own neighborhood, and it’s preparing to tackle some of the financial burden, perhaps even without the United States.
- The EU rarely moves ahead on international matters without the U.S., particularly involving major conflicts, but it hopes this decision will encourage others to come forward.
- EU envoys have been working this week on a proposal to provide Ukraine with a loan package worth up to 35 billion euros ($39 billion).
- “Crucially, this loan will flow straight into your national budget,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv last week. “It will provide you with significant and much-needed fiscal space. You will decide how best to use the funds, giving you maximum flexibility to meet your needs.”
- Zelenskyy wants to buy weapons and bomb shelters and rebuild Ukraine’s shattered energy network as winter draws near.
- Most of the 27-nation EU fears a Putin victory would lead to deep uncertainty. Russia’s armed forces are depleted and currently incapable of another war, but the prospect of a future land grab in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland remains.
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