Important Takeaways:

• Zelensky’s legitimacy is increasingly in question
• Here’s why Russia and the US can’t force the Ukrainian leader to resign – at least for now
• Zelensky’s departure is far from certain. For him to resign, at least two of three critical conditions must be met:
  • The key players in the Ukraine conflict – Russia, the US, and the European Union – must want him to go.
  • The Ukrainian political elite must push for his resignation.
  • Zelensky himself must see a reason to step down.
• At present, none of these conditions are fully in place.
• The US and Russia have seemingly converged on a three-stage process: ceasefire, elections, peace talks. Reports indicate that an informal consensus is emerging in both capitals. However, neither side has explicitly acknowledged a unified stance, likely because the negotiations are still in their early stages and have yet to formally address Ukraine.
• The European Union remains the wildcard. Brussels is adamant that Ukraine must be supported, regardless of Washington’s position. This provides Zelensky with an alternative power base, meaning that even if Russia and the US agree on his departure, he could still count on support from Europe to justify staying in power.
• Does Ukraine want Zelensky to stay?
• Polling during wartime is notoriously unreliable, making it difficult to assess whether the Ukrainian people truly want Zelensky to step down.
• Ukrainian political opposition also remains fragmented. Many figures within the ruling elite bear grudges against Zelensky, but their ability to effectively challenge his authority is questionable. The Ukrainian parliament recently embarrassed Zelensky by failing to pass a resolution reaffirming his legitimacy at the first attempt – an incident that took place in front of EU representatives. But this is hardly a coordinated coup attempt; rather, it underscores the lack of unity among his detractors.
• Will Zelensky leave willingly?
• The simplest answer is no. Zelensky appears convinced that his leadership is indispensable to Ukraine’s survival. He has consistently rejected any suggestion of early elections or stepping down voluntarily. His statements on the matter are often deflective, saying he would consider resignation only if Ukraine was admitted to NATO – an impossible condition. This suggests he will cling to power for as long as possible.
• The coming crisis: What could change?
• While Zelensky currently holds his ground, shifting battlefield dynamics could force his hand. Ukraine’s military situation continues to deteriorate, its resources are stretched thin, and Western support is no longer guaranteed. The new US administration is unlikely to display the same patience as the Biden White House. If Ukraine fails to turn the tide, Zelensky may face a stark choice: hold elections before the situation becomes catastrophic or risk being overthrown in a palace coup orchestrated by Ukrainian elites desperate to preserve their own futures.
• The latter scenario would not be unusual in history. Leaders who refuse to acknowledge military defeat often find themselves ousted by their own ranks. If Zelensky continues to insist on leading Ukraine down an unwinnable path, he may well meet the same fate.

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