Important Takeaways:

• By Dmitry Suslov, member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, deputy director of World Economy and International Politics at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, and Valdai Club expert.
• There’s every indication that the US and several of its allies may soon allow Ukraine to use Western weapons, including long-range missiles, to attack targets located within – how do we put this? – Russia’s internationally recognized borders. Or those that existed before the 2014 Maidan in Kiev.
• In America, as the New York Times recently reported, backers of the idea include Secretary of State Antony Blinken, most Republicans in Congress (including the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson), and many members of the foreign policy establishment, including Victoria Nuland, who recently resigned as deputy secretary of state. In Europe, Poland, the Baltic states, Germany’s main opposition party, the CDU/CSU, and some Western European figures, including the head of the UK Foreign Office, David Cameron, are agitating for the measure.
• Recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a similar appeal…
• Such a decision would take the conflict to a fundamentally different level, would mean the erasure of one of the brightest “red lines” that has existed since February 24, 2022, and signal the direct entry of the US and its NATO bloc into the war against Russia
• Accordingly, the worse the situation for Kiev at the front, the greater the risks of escalation that the West is willing to take.
• The voices of those who argue that even this time Moscow will not inflict direct military damage on Western countries are growing louder.
• This logic can inevitably lead to World War III. And if the West’s further involvement in the conflict in Ukraine is not stopped now, a full-scale “hot” war between Russia and NATO will become inevitable. Moreover, due to the superiority of the US and its 31 NATO members in the field of conventional weapons, this war will inevitably move to the nuclear level.
• [Russian response to US/NATO threats] we should first tell the US and NATO roughly what Moscow already told London after David Cameron’s words about Ukraine’s right to strike anywhere with British Storm Shadow missiles. Namely, that in the event of an attack on ‘old’ Russian territory, Moscow reserves the right to strike any facilities of the countries concerned, including the US, anywhere in the world. There are many American military bases dotted around the globe.
• Secondly, it is important to officially declare that if the US/NATO launches a non-nuclear strike on Russian territory in response to such a Russian strike, Moscow may in turn use nuclear weapons – in full accordance with the ‘Fundamentals of Russian State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence’.
• Thirdly, since there has been talk of possible attacks not only on British but also on American facilities (and of a possible direct military response from the US), it would be desirable to hold exercises on the use of strategic nuclear forces in addition to the current exercises on the use of tactical weapons.
• Finally, to confirm the seriousness of Russia’s intentions and to convince our adversaries of Moscow’s willingness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstration (i.e. non-aggressive) nuclear explosion. The political and psychological effect of an atomic mushroom cloud, broadcast live on all the world’s television channels, will hopefully bring back to Western politicians the one thing that prevented wars between the great powers after 1945, and which they have now largely lost – the fear of nuclear war.

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