Important Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday warned that Russia was changing its rules towards nuclear weapons, effectively lowering the threshold at which it might use them.
• He said an attack that poses a “critical threat” to the sovereignty of Russia, if carried by a non-nuclear power with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” would be considered a “joint attack on the Russian Federation”.
• Putin did not spell out any countries, but the message was clear: If the Kremlin concludes that a Ukrainian assault on its soil using US, French or British missiles represents a “critical threat” to Russia’s sovereignty, Moscow will consider Kyiv’s Western allies as the attackers too.
• Putin said such a scenario would meet Russia’s criteria – under its updated doctrine – for the use of nuclear weapons.
• He added that this also applies to attacks on neighboring Belarus, which Moscow considers its most steadfast ally.
• Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal globally, with a stockpile of 6000 warheads, some stationed in Belarus.
• Zelensky is currently in the US lobbying with the Biden administration, seeking its approval – and that of the UK – to use long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory.
• Experts point out that despite the significance of Moscow’s announced change in nuclear doctrine, it is only the latest in a series of implicit or explicit nuclear threats made by Putin since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

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