Important Takeaways:

• China is communist North Korea’s closest ally, but has refrained from major displays of support towards the Kim regime in the past year, particularly after Pyongyang published an excoriating screed against Beijing in May for backing a statement vaguely supporting the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. North Korean diplomacy has since trended towards Russia, signing a mutual defense treaty with Moscow in July during strongman Vladimir Putin’s first visit to North Korea in decades.
• China and North Korea nonetheless rely on each other significantly for ideological and economic support. Xi’s message hoping to “strengthen communication” with Kim arrives as North Korea escalates belligerent behavior against South Korea, flooding the country with a wave of trash-filled balloons over the weekend. China, in turn, faces growing economic challenges and resistance to its geopolitical agenda from the West.
• The South Korean news agency Yonhap described Beijing and Pyongyang as “relatively estranged” in the context of the founding anniversary message and the upcoming anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. South Korean sources have reportedly not seen any indication that the two countries will plan any “grand celebrations” together to mark the occasion.
• While still close allies, North Korea and China have kept a diplomatic distance this year compared to those prior, which appeared to expand following China participating in a summit in Seoul alongside the governments of that country and Japan in May. The trilateral summit, the ninth of its kind in modern history, united the conservative governments of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio with the Communist Party and resulted in a joint statement that outraged North Korea.

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